Economy Rigging 1

DMcW’s blog posts XI May 21, 2010

    • TIME FOR ADMINISTRATION: DMcW

      It just goes to show how delusional people can be. The Eurozone is doing everything they can to plaster over its problems, but its not fixing the cause that is trade deficits with nations like China and low interest rates causing real estate bubbles.

      The Eurozone is going to try print its way out of trouble, but that will lead to a debt spiral and then to distract the population they will create a phony war to distract its citizens and use it as an excuse to abuse civil liberties. If you think that sounds far fetched, think again. This sort of thing has happened over and over throughout history.

      So with all the monetising of debt, more attention will be paid to hard currencies aka precious metals. When the likes of the London Metals Exchange defaults and all the market manipulation is exposed the shit will hit the fan and the game will be up.

      Saving silver is the way to go to at least sleep peacefully at night and not have to worry about all the fuck ups governments are making.

      April 19, 2010, 12:37 pmLog in to Reply
    • tony_murphy says
      April 19, 2010, 1:02 pmLog in to Reply
      • s1lverbullet says

        The Germans are the ones who released all this debt on us in the first place

        April 20, 2010, 1:13 pmLog in to Reply
      • Seamus26 says

        That paper is “The Sun” for upper working class britons who have made money as trades people, store managers, property etc, its a nonsense rag, just w/o the bright colours

        Germany are an export economy, a weak euro suits them, derailing the Euro project by leaving the currency
        would automatically start a chain reaction of defaults, mainly on money owed to them.

        April 23, 2010, 4:51 pmLog in to Reply
    • tirnanog33 says

      When I was a young man I visited Greece every year for annual holiday. Then their currency devalued by about 20% every year.They lived happily with this “controlled” inflation.
      They then joined the Euro.
      Methinks,nothing really changed their old habits.

      April 19, 2010, 1:35 pmLog in to Reply
    • MK1 says

      Hi David,

      > Both came a cropper due to massive borrowing on one asset: Anglo in the Quinn case and property in the case of the country.

      Not exactly, Quinn are in difficulty because they have over-extended on credit lines which were semi-backed by property and which have gone down. They doubled their debt-quagmire by ‘betting’ on the bank that had loaned them the money, so lost more than they should have. The fact that Ireland’s richest man, doesnt have about 150m euro to shore up his insurance business is a sign that perhaps he was never worth 4.2billion. Assets must always be netted off against loans.

      > our total debt/GDP ratio is exploding, Ireland is not too different to a company trading recklessly.

      Or traded recklessly. People are throwing stones at the banks etc, but thats like throwing stones at a bar-owner who has supplied the drunks with too much liquor, but there was no-one checking the licencing laws nor prosecuting (or threatening to) any bar-owners that gave people too much drink.

      The ultimate blame HAS TO lie with the regulators and politicians that control and establish the regulators. So simply put, that’s Ahern, Cowen, McCreevy and to a lesser extent Lenihan.

      > If the country continues to borrow and borrow, it will wither on the vine. Is it time to do a deal with our creditors, rather than promise everyone that we can pay back everything when we clearly can’t?

      But we can pay a lot back, and we should, all we need to do is work harder, smarter and drive efficiency. And a bloated public sector is not efficiency. There are answers. Laziness like the Greeks and avoiding tax is not what gets rewarded.

      > This is what the management of Quinn has acceded to for its insurance arm, for the sake of the workers and policyholders.

      No, it did it for itself as it had to. It had no choice.

      > Greece’s problems haven’t gone away

      Greec’s case is problematic fro ma number of angles. For one, they didnt have a massive credit frenzy and property bubble like many countries did. Their problem is like our public sector problem only bigger, plus they cooked their own books. Spain and Ireland’s problems were/are property-bubble-based. Greece is for now the whipping boy, but its not contagion, its focus, focus on different problems.

      > This is the endgame for Greece and the process of defaulting is now in train.

      Greece can still avoid default IF it takes the bull by the horns and brings in reforms quickly and gathers its taxes. It has to get tough, but people will resist it. And sure wouldnt anyone as an individual take a bailout?

      > How much pain can Spain take? The rules of the euro demand that Spain cut its expenditure now.

      The problems with the euro ‘project’ is that ALL countries are breaking the rules. The euro may break up but only if ALL countries agree that it is best to do so.

      > Will we borrow the cash from the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to pretend that we have the firepower to back up our euro credentials?

      Everyone will, thats what central banks and quatitative easing is all about.

      > Ultimately, the markets’ guns will focus on us

      One problem that the euro system has is that euro-bonds are not centralised like US federal bonds. So there are German euro bonds, Greek ones, Irish ones, etc. There should be Euro-federal bonds for the euro currency to work properly but the political establshment were against it. So its a quasi currency with soft and bendable rules. It could break yes, but we here in Ireland would be foolish to jump ship now, even if we think its sinking.

      > My fear is that we will adopt the position of the Quinn Group up to recently, which is to try to carryon as if nothing is wrong.

      I agree, people will …

      > So do we have a default plan?

      of course we dont! However, I dont think we are on the brink of an Ireland default yet nor should we think of it as a solution.

      MK1

      April 19, 2010, 1:49 pmLog in to Reply
      • G says

        I remember RTE/Pravda last summer with Sean Quinn, repeating in ape-like fashion, that Sean Quinn was worth €7-8 billion, we now know a little bit more about that apparent falsehood, indeed, they never examined his supposed ‘financial empire’ – absurdity layered on farce!

        April 19, 2010, 2:29 pmLog in to Reply
      • Original-Ed says

        > But we can pay a lot back – how much is a lot? a politicians metric

        > all we need to do is work harder, smarter and drive efficiency – so that bankers/gamblers can win, win although they actually lost

        > bloated public sector is not efficiency – not for much longer.

        > There are answers – gamble = gamble, which part of that equation, don‘t you understand?.

        > Laziness like the Greeks – we don’t have sunshine to laze about in

        April 19, 2010, 2:46 pmLog in to Reply
      • s1lverbullet says

        They are all equally to blame.Firstly, The politicians changed the laws so commercial banks could do investment banking, then they arranged the tax laws to suit their developer friends. The banks recklessly lent huge sums to these bums to build thousands of houses. In order for the banks to get their money back they had to release vast amounts of cheap credit to the citizens to purchase these over-priced crocks of shite. The joe soaps paid the developer scum so they could pay the banking scum, and all the while the political scum were looking at the tax intake and saying WOW what a great job we are doing. On the other side the mainstream media hyped it up, the crooked auditing firms cooked the results and the dogdy legal scum got in on the act too. The ordinary citizen is on the hook for the criminality of the professional classes, in the same way that we saw the same professional class do nothing about the industrial child abuse. These professional scum have no morals, no ethics and no common decency. They couldnt care less if the working class lives or dies , so why should we be surprised that they are willing to saddle us with insurmountable debts. Shame on the lot of them

        April 20, 2010, 1:28 pmLog in to Reply
    • G says

      Maybe someone could put the Irish version together?

      How to create an angry American?
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgfzqulvhlQ&feature=player_embedded

      April 19, 2010, 2:22 pmLog in to Reply
    • cautious-optimist says

      So waht will an Irish sovereign default look like in practice? No money to pay public servants, state pensioners and social welfare recipients? A new currency (punt2, I’m tempted to call it fiat punto) circulating in tandem with the euro and used to pay the above groups?
      I know that in Argentina back in their default in the 1990’s certain regions printed their own currency and last year Kilkenny came out with a local legal tender called the Cat which gave you an additional 5% buying power if purchased for euros and used locally.
      If we default and return to the punto does that mean that all euro deposits in irish banks overnight become denominated in puntos? Just wondering how all this will pan out in practice and hoping that somebody in the Central bank and DoF has game played these scenarios and has a contingency plan to roll out in the next week or so.

      April 19, 2010, 4:02 pmLog in to Reply
      • Sean_Kelly says

        fitting name, because it is fiat money. Your saving in fiat money are going to lose a large percentage of their value when we return to the punt.

        Silver is key to protecting your wealth and profiting from all this mess for the time being.

        April 20, 2010, 10:28 pmLog in to Reply
    • G says

      Their man says –

      He (Gordon Brown) threatened to block multimillion-pound bonus payouts if the firm (Goldman Sachs) is found guilty of wrongdoing.
      http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/18/gordon-brown-angela-merkel-goldman-sachs

      Our man says –

      ‘Social Protection’ Minister Eamon O’Cuiv has asked the chief of executive of Bank of Ireland to hand back a €1.5 million pension top-up. Mr O Cuiv said the Government did not have the legal power to force the chief Executvie, Richie Boucher, to give back the ‘award’.

      F***********************ERS!!

      Tell me WHY when we pumped taxpayers money in it wasn’t done with strings attached, if I open a Bord Gas account I have to agree terms and conditions and put down a €200 deposit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      No culture change – who the f**k is running the country, we are being held to ransom by the greediest bunch of motherf**kers walking the planet!

      The Captain Boycott campaign should be revived!!! The spirit of Michael Davitt and James Connolly called upon – we are our inspirational people?

      What kind of a generation are we?

      April 19, 2010, 4:43 pmLog in to Reply
      • Deco says

        The government is a major shareholder. It has the legal power to request that Boucher stands down.

        I still can’t fathom why Boucher was given the top job in the BoI, when his previous job was head of retail banking in Ireland – which is the division that made the biggest mistakes.

        Effectively Boucher was promoted because he presided over the most amount of incompetence. He has been promoted beyond his level of incompetence many years ago.

        I don’t suppose the Minister knows any of this. I suppose that this is irrelevant compared to the lamp that has to get fixed in Cararoe or the medical card for the man who lives fifteen doors down from the Post Office in Salthill.

        April 19, 2010, 6:21 pmLog in to Reply
        • G says

          Dingle to Daingean ~ E O’Cuiv TD ~ Minister for Social Distraction!

          April 19, 2010, 7:23 pmLog in to Reply
      • paulmcd says

        Extract from LETTER sent by me on Tuesday 24 November 2009, to all members of the Oireachtas highlighting continuing scandal of bankers’ pay.

        (The largest systemically-important US banks have already repaid TARP, and some of the figures would need to be adjusted. )

        Nation seeking FAIR PLAY

        On this day of action, I am still waiting and hoping that the leader of some organisation, be it a union or employer’s body will call for PAY CAPS which must be implemented as a part-solution to the current EMERGENCY. It is unacceptable that people earning 6-figure salaries should be the sole arbiters on what lesser mortals should earn.

        Banking executives, in particular, seem to believe they inhabit some parallel universe where they can truly be the MASTERS and politicians are their gofers.

        This year Richie Boucher, CEO of Bank of Ireland, will receive a total salary package of €620,000 (€500,000 + €120,000 cash payment in lieu of pension contribution). The Minister had advocated a pay cap of €500,000, and CIROC had advised against payment of sums in lieu of pension contributions. The “pension bonus” is all the more unwarrantable because Bank of Ireland needs to tackle a €1.5 billion pension deficit in relation to its ordinary employees. The Bank has a pension black hole equivalent to €100,000 for each of its 14,800 employees.

        Mr Boucher’s €620,000 = 921,000 US dollars. The CEO of Bank of America, which is 100 times larger than Bank of Ireland, is subject to a pay cap of $500,000 (€336,000).

        Citigroup, once the largest financial institution in the United States, has a CEO, Vikram Pandit, who is working for a salary of $1 (one dollar) and no bonus until such time as the Bank is again profitable. This is despite the fact that Mr Pandit is an innocent party who was parachuted in to rescue the organisation. IS THERE NOT A LESSON HERE FOR IRISH PATRIOTISM?

        FORGET PATRIOTISM: I predict that Boucher will be allowed to keep the extra €120,000; and Colm Doherty, the new AIB Managing Director, will recognise government weakness and ensure that, in the fullness of time, he will receive the €630,000 which the Minister rejected last week. There is something rotten in the State.

        April 19, 2010, 7:27 pmLog in to Reply
        • G says

          government collusion rather than weakness.

          did you get a response?

          April 19, 2010, 7:36 pmLog in to Reply
          • paulmcd says

            Too few to be worthy of mention, G. The only senator who responded was open and honest enough to ask what was CIROC.

            April 19, 2010, 7:56 pmLog in to Reply
            • G says

              the silence of the lambs!

              April 20, 2010, 9:51 am
        • PMC says

          “Citigroup, once the largest financial institution in the United States, has a CEO, Vikram Pandit, who is working for a salary of $1 (one dollar) and no bonus until such time as the Bank is again profitable. This is despite the fact that Mr Pandit is an innocent party who was parachuted in to rescue the organisation. IS THERE NOT A LESSON HERE FOR IRISH PATRIOTISM?”

          I think Mr Pandit would in fact fit the bill perfectly for a senior position in our rancid banking system.
          This was a fella who 18 months earlier sold his own hedge fund to Citi (his current employer) for $800 million. Due to his departure from the Old Lane Fund, a provision was triggered which allowed himself and other prominent outside investors to withdarw their money, hence the withdrawal of some $3 billion. The fund then went to shit, and the taxpayers were left to foot the bill.

          April 20, 2010, 11:33 amLog in to Reply
          • paulmcd says

            PMC, I was not aware of this. However, isn’t it still astonishing that, in our small nation, Boucher is to be entitled to a pension which is greater than the salary of the President of the USA or the salary of the CEO of Bank of America while under TARP.

            April 20, 2010, 12:59 pmLog in to Reply
            • PMC says

              Absolutely Paul, I with you agree entirely. It’s sickening though that Vikram Pandit received such positive publicity worldwide for this stunt.

              April 20, 2010, 3:11 pm
      • s1lverbullet says

        Do not fall for Gordon Brown’s spin. He was the main man in the UK cherrleading the light regulation for the last 15 years. 2 days arter parliament broke up he was making promises about what he’ll do if he gets back in and how he’ll stop banker’s bonuses. WHY didn’t he do something a week earlier when he had the power to. SPIN SPIN SPIN.
        Also, if you get any kinda price in the bookies on Cameron, put your house on him. There is a worse crisis coming in the next 6 months when countries start defaulting and Brown wants out. just like Bertie and Blair got out, Brown will do the same- mark my words

        April 20, 2010, 1:37 pmLog in to Reply
        • tony_murphy says

          Phony tony was the real crook

          I’m not sure Brown was fully aware of mistakes he was making.

          He has stopped UK going into deflation spiral to his credit. The conservatives may cause a deflation spiral

          I won’t be voting for labour or conservatives though

          Looks like a hung parliament with Nick Clegg the power broker

          Even though Clegg was educated at the college of europe – finishing school for euro bureaucrats, I have being impressed by his words. He is from as posh a background as Cameroon and his father is a richer banker of some sort, but he isn’t surrounded by etonians as far as I’m aware.

          Vince Cable would be an impressive Chancellor

          April 20, 2010, 2:42 pmLog in to Reply
      • cbweb says

        @G 14

        Was support for NAMA and Anglo bailout was a condition of Richie Boucher’s employment? Has he already sold his soul? We may only get shop window changes from him to appease and fool the public. Lets see people marched to the courts!

        April 22, 2010, 10:40 amLog in to Reply
    • Malcolm McClure says

      Quinn = Quarries —– Understood
      Quinn = Quarries + Cement —— Understood
      Quinn = Quarries + Cement + Insurance —– ?
      Quinn = Quarries + Cement + Insurance + International —– ??
      Quinn = Quarries + Cement + Insurance + International + Anglo-Irish —– ???
      Quinn = Quarries + Cement + Insurance + International + Anglo Irish + Irish taxpayers ——-????
      Quinn = Quarries + Cement + Insurance + International + Anglo Irish + Irish taxpayers + contribution to Greek debts —— ??????
      Where ill this house of cards all end????????????????

      April 19, 2010, 4:51 pmLog in to Reply
    • G says

      Being charged for water when 50% is leaking because of appalling infrastructure (i.e. broken/leaking pipes!) – meter installation is like road tax, you’re not paying for either roads or water, it’s just straight bloody tax as one of the worst times in our country’s history – where the f**k will hard pressed people to find the money!

      Bloody Greens are in la-la land – monied idiots! They should go to the Dublin mountains (like they were encouraging people) and stay there!

      April 19, 2010, 5:15 pmLog in to Reply
      • Deco says

        G.

        This is pure BS. Gormless has not got a clue.

        We do not have a water problem in Ireland. Unless you are talking about the fact that we do not know how to drain it properly.

        We have a money problem. As Joan Burton said “we are in this recession, because we have no money”. Gormless has made a contribution to the money problem by putting rejected GP local authority candidates employees of state quangos.

        I wonder were those jobs advertised ?
        And what about the selection criteria for the candidates ?
        And the interview process ?
        And what if there were better qualified candidates who did not get the jobs, that GP activists got ?

        Gormless is a scoundrel, the worst scoundrel of all – a silver tongued hypocrite.

        April 19, 2010, 6:11 pmLog in to Reply
        • G says

          Silver tongued and haired, but I sense a waterloo coming, been pushing it for a while……………..

          Given Tubridy didn’t ask him anything of important, just Groucho Marx as Luimneach & other nonsense!

          Cronyism shows the Greens are red in tooth and claw
          http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article7009549.ece

          April 19, 2010, 6:16 pmLog in to Reply
        • s1lverbullet says

          I think we should all remember this. Water is the link to controlling the people of the world. The aim is to eventually privatise the water and sell it off to some American company, just like is happening all over the globe!! Wake up people

          April 20, 2010, 1:46 pmLog in to Reply
      • tony_murphy says

        When I heard Ciaran Cuffe speak about demolishing estates and badly planned ugly buildings that fall into NAMA, it made more sense at to why the backed NAMA fully

        It’s a licence to put Ciaran Cuffe and the likes of An Taisce etc into a big bulldozer and do what they’ve always wanted to do.

        April 19, 2010, 8:12 pmLog in to Reply
    • G says

      Is the administration of this water nonsense going to be in the hands of a private company? Who is installing the water meters? How will it be rolled out? Who foots the bill? Who benefits?

      I hope this is the issue that brings down this appalling government.

      The Cochabamba Water Wars: Marcela Olivera Reflects on the Tenth Anniversary of the Popular Uprising Against Bechtel and the Privatization of the City’s Water Supply
      http://www.democracynow.org/2010/4/19/the_cochabamba_water_wars_marcella_olivera

      April 19, 2010, 5:30 pmLog in to Reply
      • Deco says

        Somebody needs to point a water pistol at Gormless. Maybe Willie O’Dea might be the man for the job ?

        April 19, 2010, 6:22 pmLog in to Reply
      • cbweb says

        Clown:
        “The Dub buggers are complainin of the bloody water shortages again!”

        Gormless:
        “The problem is they are drinking too much water. Introduce water charges, that’ll stop em.

        Charge them by the litre, charge them for meters.

        Close the swimming pools, poor gobshites are swimming around in our water and pouring it down the gobs of their big families.”

        Lenin, aka chemical ali:
        “We can make jobs outa this, sell them factory loads of bottled water, the Phosphate Brand.

        We can’t afford to pipe it to them from the Shannon, or build another Blessington Lakes, for f.cks sake!

        Who do dese dub mudaf..ck.rs tink they are”

        April 20, 2010, 3:36 pmLog in to Reply
    • Deco says

      Lots of salient points in the article.
      I will take this up in the next few days.

      We are facing a very harsh awakening. And there are legions of people who want to shut that out and stay on the sofa watching virtual reality. Concerning responsibility, there is now an industry in making other people responsible for the individual issues that every individual is now facing. And this industry was best exemplified by the weekend’s ILP meeting in Galway, with one speaker after another promising rescue at the expense of ‘the people who profitted from the Celtic Tiger’. Forgive my cynicism, but I was reticient at doing anything that helped others profit from the boom, and I am equally reticent at helping any scoundrels profit from the crash either.

      David is telling it as it is. This is the best service that anybody can do. The Drinks cabinet are not in control of the problem. The problem is control of the problem – it has it’s own dynamic. You are either at safe remove from the problem, or you are in the ‘collateral’ damage zone. Ireland is in the PIGS, and is a dependent exporter to the UK currency area. Ireland is in two collateral damage zones. And there are still legions of idiots who are more interested in “beer and circuses”.

      We are not adapting intellectually to the problems that we face. We have started a routine of patting ourselves on the back (pride) for the little bit that we have done. What we have done is irrelevant to the scale of the problem.

      We have not remedied anything at an intellectual level in our society. Therefore we have failed according to Einstein’s dictum “we cannot solve the problem, if we continue to operate at the same level of thinking that created the problem in the first place”.

      A harsh chapter awaits many people in Ireland who think that “the Irish way of life is not up for negotiation”. The Irish way of life is now effectively defunct, and is at the end of the road. We have reached a Kunsterlian predicament. We are living beyond our means. We are wasteful and misallocating resources.

      Today, Minister Gormley announced that the state would spend 2 Billion Euro on water metering, so as to ensure that we were metering usage of this precious resource. This is a load of horseshit. Ireland can waste water. It cost us nothing. Ireland cannot waste money. His government is borrowing 20 Billion Euro per year, in order to run quangos, semi-states, pointless overmanned departments and a whole myriad of wasteful schemes. And Gormless is not doing anything.

      What I am saying is that Gormless is intellectually a prime example of the prime example of why this problem is going to get worse. Gormless is trying to save water. But money is being wasted. The water will keep coming. The money will not. This is what happens when you get ideological political movements, you get illogical policies.

      April 19, 2010, 6:05 pmLog in to Reply
      • Tull McAdoo says

        Nail ar on ceann, Deco. When are these people going to realise that the Taxpayer’s can no longer and are indeed tired of funding this mis-placed gombeen gulch. I would’nt trust that Gormely with a bloody tenner.

        April 20, 2010, 3:36 amLog in to Reply
    • Deco says

      What was it that Hemmingway said “Patriotism is the last refuge of scoundrels” ??

      FF, SF, ILP, the George Lee bashers in FG, the GP, media commentators, celebrities like Bullshit Bill, Mr. Point Depot, etc….

      Hemmingway was correct. Scoundrels the lot of them.

      April 19, 2010, 6:16 pmLog in to Reply
      • G says

        Samuel Johnson is noted for having coined that particular phrase………Hemingway was onto something but veered away…..more of a John Steinbeck fan, hence I can’t allow him take the credit 🙂

        April 19, 2010, 6:18 pmLog in to Reply
    • eamondo says

      “Where with all these debts are we going to get the cash to pay back the borrowing”, you ask, David. Right under your nose thats where, or at least a decent percentage of it.

      One huge source of untapped income currently available to the Irish economy is unpaid tax, or to put it bluntly the “black economy”. Something Ireland has in common with Greece and Spain.

      How huge is it, as a London born and based visitor to Ireland for many years, I could take a straw poll from 7 of my cousins who I am still in touch with.

      Teachers, social workers, care assistants, utility workers, one self employed businessman, two semi skilled tradesmen.

      Everyone of them, yes every one of them, has a second business / sideline activity from livestock to beautician work, private education (grinds I believe it is known as) etc etc, which they proudly boast increases their incomes between 20 and 80 per cent.

      No, I am not related to an extended family of dangerous criminals but more likely a cross section of formerly working, now middle class Ireland, and aware of another of Ireland’s current problems; income tax evasion and lack of strategy to deal with this, along with all the other unspoken (until recently) moral problems, catholic church cover ups, abortion exportation……… etc.

      Wake up Ireland!! The future is in your own hands, or should I say in undisclosed bank accounts.

      April 19, 2010, 7:00 pmLog in to Reply
    • Furrylugs says

      This is staggering stuff.

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-fiderer/goldmans-blueprint-for-du_b_542176.html

      The proof of every students conspiracy theory. Didn’t Goldman Sachs do something or other for the Irish Government?
      Methinks young Elderfield is going to be a busy man.

      April 19, 2010, 9:42 pmLog in to Reply
      • Philip says

        I would say it was a natural consequence of pushing people’s work off shore and forcing them to believe that the new income was from property. All these guys did was respond to demand and drag in the experts to keep it going.

        It was unsustainable – that’s all.

        April 19, 2010, 10:20 pmLog in to Reply
    • paulmcd says

      Several of you have compared our economy to a sinking ship – a useful comparison.

      Yes, the good ship Éire has hit an iceberg. Captain Cowen and officers are first into the lifeboats, while the crew dash around like headless chickens helping mainly MALE FIRST-CLASS PASSENGERS make it safely into the lifeboats, leaving the “socially disadvantaged”, the handicapped, and that unruly rabble of women and children to fare for their good selves.

      BRIAN, YOU ARE SO WONDERFULLY BRAVE!!

      April 19, 2010, 9:45 pmLog in to Reply
    • Philip says

      We need to understand that industry in Ireland never got off the ground. We had a brief boom from the Mid 90s to 2000 and then it fizzled. It fizzled before people really understood the game was up – that took another 7 years or so.

      In the intervening 2000 to 2007 the only real source of income was property financed from cheap money. To date, if you invested then and generated a tidy rental without getting too greedy, you are quids in. It is terrible to say it, but that is the consequence of taking the eye off the bit that makes wealth. We were all conned by nonsnse about the knowledge economy etc. Even today, this nonsense persists.

      Once Quinn got into ser vices & financial serv ices, he was playing a gamblers game. He went from making real wealth to merely churning it. He created froth v ia rev enue wihout bothering to count his loans. Ireland & the banks are the same….bt we are all lost and ov er impressed by the froth.

      Ireland has effectively been unemployed for about 9 years now. As a manufacturing/ assembly area, it has lost and is loosing the skills of organisation it built since 1980s. The last 10 years of people have only exposure to retail, banks and small businesses of little merit – hardly the basis of learning how to tackle large operational problems….oh yes, services was supposed to do that? That dog simply does not hunt.

      To be fair to the CIF and FF, they now have the largest cadre of well practiced chartered professional engineers and other professional you will find in this country. So while all went to hell in electronics, IT etc, at least we were using our engineers for something.

      I am not denying the seriousness of the Sovereign bust about to drop on us. But the default is and was already underway in terms of our skills reserve. The blather was we are rushing to the knowledge economy and no one ever questioned this. We went unsustainable when people stopped asking questions ab out the service/knowledge economy.

      This is not an Irish problem. This same nonsense is being played out in all western economies and the penny has yet to drop.

      April 19, 2010, 10:14 pmLog in to Reply
    • Furrylugs says

      For those who may not have seen this before, I thought I’d post it again. It’s Article 45 of the Irish Constitution and I’m buggered if I can figure out how it fits with whats going on with the banks.

      DIRECTIVE PRINCIPLES OF SOCIAL POLICY

      Article 45

      The principles of social policy set forth in this Article are intended for the general guidance of the Oireachtas. The application of those principles in the making of laws shall be the care of the Oireachtas exclusively, and shall not be cognisable by any Court under any of the provisions of this Constitution.

      1. The State shall strive to promote the welfare of the whole people by securing and protecting as effectively as it may a social order in which justice and charity shall inform all the institutions of the national life.

      2. The State shall, in particular, direct its policy towards securing:

      i. That the citizens (all of whom, men and women equally, have the right to an adequate means of livelihood) may through their occupations find the means of making reasonable provision for their domestic needs.

      ii. That the ownership and control of the material resources of the community may be so distributed amongst private individuals and the various classes as best to subserve the common good.

      iii. That, especially, the operation of free competition shall not be allowed so to develop as to result in the concentration of the ownership or control of essential commodities in a few individuals to the common detriment.

      iv. That in what pertains to the control of credit the constant and predominant aim shall be the welfare of the people as a whole.

      v. That there may be established on the land in economic security as many families as in the circumstances shall be practicable.

      3. 1° The State shall favour and, where necessary, supplement private initiative in industry and commerce.

      2° The State shall endeavour to secure that private enterprise shall be so conducted as to ensure reasonable efficiency in the production and distribution of goods and as to protect the public against unjust exploitation.

      4. 1° The State pledges itself to safeguard with especial care the economic interests of the weaker sections of the community, and, where necessary, to contribute to the support of the infirm, the widow, the orphan, and the aged.

      2° The State shall endeavour to ensure that the strength and health of workers, men and women, and the tender age of children shall not be abused and that citizens shall not be forced by economic necessity to enter avocations unsuited to their sex, age or strength.

      April 19, 2010, 11:34 pmLog in to Reply
      • G says

        excellent, really useful, government is a violation of the constitution…….

        Anyone see the p.3 story in the Irish Examiner today in relation to M. Hanafin – I thought it most peculiar…

        April 19, 2010, 11:42 pmLog in to Reply
          • G says

            Yes, very curious, especially for the FG Examiner – totally out of place article…………

            April 20, 2010, 9:48 amLog in to Reply
            • s1lverbullet says

              obviously trying to muster up some sympathy for the bitch. Fuck her, her asshole of a brother, and anyone connected to her. I for one coudlnt give a shit if she died herself, let alone the love of her life

              April 20, 2010, 7:27 pm
            • ps200306 says

              That’s a pretty inhuman comment @ 7:27 pm

              April 20, 2010, 8:37 pm
        • liam says

          Tragic stuff, FF’ers are human too I guess. And having said that, the timing is remarkable.

          At the risk of lighting up a controversy that our host has already become entangled with, I’ve always thought it curious that MoC, who has considerable kudos from her experience on Newsnight and as a BBC-trained producer, should simultaneously front RTE’s main current affairs programme, yet also be involved in this kind of light entertainment stuff. Does she (and RTE) not realise that this juxtaposition completely undermines her journalistic credibility? Can you imagine Jeremy Paxman, somebody she appears to have considerable admiration for, doing these kinds of personal pieces on the lives of politicians one night on one show, and then quite justifiably biting the legs off them the next night on a different show? Will Gerry Ryan be anchoring the nine o’clock news net year?

          April 20, 2010, 12:29 pmLog in to Reply
      • G says

        @ Furrylugs – I consulted a legal Eagle on the above, his one line response –

        “Article 45 is not cognisable by the Irish courts and, for that reason, has no ‘bite’ concerning present events.”

        April 20, 2010, 9:50 amLog in to Reply
        • Furrylugs says

          Hi G.
          Thanks for the response.
          My take on that is, when a Minister is formulating policy in line with the social principles of A45, he may not be prevented from doing so by someone challenging him /her in a court of law.
          It does not mean that the Courts do not recognise A45, which would make a farce of the Constitution.
          But I’m not a legal bod, just a regulatory peasant.

          April 20, 2010, 7:39 pmLog in to Reply
    • G says

      It’s about to get more interesting…………..traders already working on it for maximum financial advantage.

      It would also seem the US, British and German governments are intent on breaking up Goldman Sachs

      Oil, Smoke & Mirrors….
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arTtH6dwkj0&feature=player_embedded#at=117

      April 19, 2010, 11:37 pmLog in to Reply
    • tony_murphy says

      off topic, but icelandic volcano looks like it’s going to throw an big spanner in the works.

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8631343.stm?ls

      The eruption of the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano in Iceland, and the travel chaos it has called, is only a “small rehearsal”, according to Iceland’s President Olafur Grimsson.
      The larger Katla volcano, right next to it, usually erupts every century, and the last eruption was in 1918, he said.

      He also said that European governments should prepare

      it’s a right mess and could get a lot worse

      April 20, 2010, 10:15 amLog in to Reply
      • laughingbear says

        Hi Tony,

        yes, in deed, and our politicians would be well advised to not waste OUR time in debating Fingelton’s 1 million euro repayment promise, and just start by doing something useful such as freezing all assets of the people involved in this scam by emergency legislation.

        April 20, 2010, 10:59 amLog in to Reply
        • paulmcd says

          . . . and withdrawing their passports.

          April 20, 2010, 1:04 pmLog in to Reply
        • cbweb says

          I thought we had the CAB (Criminal Assets Bureau) already empowered for this, non payment of debts, embezzlement and fraud through providing loans for cronies without properly accounted for personal asset guarantees, improperly setup paperwork, lack of due diligence amounting to fraud…etc

          April 20, 2010, 2:47 pmLog in to Reply
    • Garry says

      A Paul Forrest has posted probably the most succinct analysis of the current situation to date in response to Fintan O’Toole.

      http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0420/1224268693609.html

      Is it manageable? Hasn’t anyone read this?

      Money Advice & Budgeting Service
      Dublin South East MABS
      26 – 28, Lombard Street
      Dublin 2

      Dear MABS,
      My name is Cathlín Ní Houliháin and I earn €35,000 a year.
      My annual spend is €60,000 and I have borrowings of €80,000 on which I can barely pay the interest.
      I’m spending a further €40,000 to purchase some property-based assets, once worth €80,000, which I hope to be able to sell on at a profit when things improve.
      I’m also investing €73,000 in several finance companies, because I decided to act as their guarantor for €485,000 of their debts and deposits.
      Wilkins Micawber advises that such leads to misery. Brian Lenihan advises that it leads to prosperity. Morgan Kelly advises that if I want to get to any sort of ‘Prosperity’, I shouldn’t have started from here.
      What would you advise?

      Yours sincerely,
      Cathlín

      For anyone who at this stage may still be confused by the politicians’ ability to ‘fudge’ anything, just add six noughts to each of the above numbers to gauge Ireland’s actual problem.

      And as for, ‘Is it manageable?’ In the spirit of the famous riposte to the one who once asked if he’d get a receipt, ‘Is it ****’!

      April 20, 2010, 11:41 amLog in to Reply
    • Dilly says

      A financial advisor tried to talk me into buying property this week. I was told “this is the year to buy”. I felt like Marty McFly. What year is this ???. He was all excited, flapping his arms around. I backed away slowly and made no sudden movements.

      April 20, 2010, 3:09 pmLog in to Reply
    • G says

      Folks

      There is a movement to call a General Election on April 24th, people gathering in all major Irish cities, see also Facebook………

      Call for a General Election in Ireland – Saturday 24/04/2010 @ 12 Noon
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lc6ZY91kUTk

      April 20, 2010, 4:19 pmLog in to Reply
      • Furrylugs says

        And probably badly needed G, but have the other parties set out their own stalls about what to do next. We could jump from the frying pan into the fire unless we are very clear about what and who will replace this shower.

        April 20, 2010, 7:41 pmLog in to Reply
    • coldblow says

      How do you go about putting a country into administration, seeing as we have a democratically elected government?

      My reading of the piece is that we are steering a direct course towards default which nobody wants to mention or even think about. That if we do nothing to avert this (Nama is just pulling out the throttle) then we will be left to cut the worst possible deal. That govt. should be seeking to avert the worst possible outcome but that nobody in DoF wants to give any thought to the possible scenarios because even to admit to theoretical possibility of their existence would be heresy. So no contingencies will be prepared for what will take place.

      Well, it’s a good thing then that DoF have been carefully considering and planning for all eventualities.

      Will our lot act like the Russian conspirators who arrested Gorbachov and then went on the p*ss before just giving up?

      April 20, 2010, 4:25 pmLog in to Reply
    • coldblow says

      ‘And the medal goes to Paddy Last!’
      I could hear the village roar.
      ‘Now I’m first at last’ I cried
      ‘I was always behind before!’

      Gabriel Fitzmaurice

      April 20, 2010, 4:29 pmLog in to Reply
    • paddyjones says

      How will we repay our 140 billion ( end 2010 ) ? Well there is always the option of put this debt directly on the shoulders of the population. How about each citizen over the age of 18 being issued with a loan of 50,000 to be repaid in installments over 20 years.
      That is the only way of repaying the national debt because the government has no will to start repaying it. Indeed the national debt will soar to 190 billion in 2014 does anybody know the difficulty in just balancing the budget in one sigle year, this will not be achieved until about 2016 at the earliest. When will the bond market just stop investing in countries like Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal? This day is not far off.

      April 20, 2010, 5:12 pmLog in to Reply
    • wills says

      David.

      In the Article above you decry ‘its all MAD MAD MAD’.

      I think you are referring to the bonds and paper money debt system going beserk that you are decrying MAD.

      The paper money FIAT system is been utterly pillaged and plundered and robbed in our faces.

      Look at the stories on the news tonight.

      GOLDMAN SUCKS an egg first three months bonuses manna from heaven.

      BofII Boucher (who is NOT from Ireland from South Africa) and he is awarded a 2 million pay rise for what..?

      NAMA bonds shifted another billion again money from ECB printing presses going like the clappers.

      We are experiencing an unprecedented looting of the banking system fronting as a credit provider but now its proven to be so that they are plundering the economy through loopholes and coordinated crisis and diversion.

      The paper money FIAT system is been milked on an unprecedented level.

      April 20, 2010, 6:18 pmLog in to Reply
      • s1lverbullet says

        anyone else get the feeling that Lenihan might not renew the guarantee next september. I still think he is a dick but for some reason I think he intends to let Anglo swing after it runs out

        April 20, 2010, 7:36 pmLog in to Reply
        • wills says

          Silverbullet.

          BL is trying to hold things together from flying a part which might be a good thing.

          In the end BL is not the problem, its the financial engineers behind the engineered POnzi scamarama bank job.

          April 20, 2010, 7:47 pmLog in to Reply
          • s1lverbullet says

            @ Will – I’ve said it many times here, Rothschilds, Merrill Lynch, and Aurthur Cox came up with the Nama idea as an experiment. They WANT us to go bust!! That said I just have a feeling the guarantee wont be renewed. Remember where you heard it first

            April 20, 2010, 7:57 pmLog in to Reply
            • ps200306 says

              “Remember where you heard it first”

              Karl Whelan already predicted it.

              April 20, 2010, 10:17 pm
            • s1lverbullet says

              @ ps200306 – please don’t tell me my comments are inhumane. If you seriously think that Hanafin gives a shit about us then you are sadly mistaken. Why should I care one bit about her. I say it again, I could’nt care less if she died herself, let alone the love of her life!!!

              April 21, 2010, 4:08 pm
    • Josey says

      Second wave of the financial crisis?

      http://www.youtube.com/user/jberni1#p/a/u/0/MGIa_CH99CY

      April 20, 2010, 10:42 pmLog in to Reply
    • wills says

      Good link here on Roubini taking the baton from D’s article and running it over the finishing line.

      http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/roubini24/English

      April 20, 2010, 11:51 pmLog in to Reply
    • laughingbear says

      It is really fascinating to observe how the exact same rhetoric, down to the very choice of words, is used by Cowen / Lenihan concerning Anglo/ Irish Nationwide compared with their corresponding colleagues in Germany and Hypo Real Estate.

      The mantra is always the same, ‘We did not make any errors’, ‘We did not see this coming’, ‘There is no other way’, and so on.

      A commission was put in place to investigate, and ran into the same rubber wall of silence, lies and secrets built by Josef Ackermann (Deutsche Bank) who happens to be chairman of the IIF since 2003.

      http://www.iif.com/

      The answers of german politicians are always the same, and one could just exchange the faces and keep the quotes to make a suitable Irish version, which is in deed the exact picture on close inspection.

      What we witness is on this Island is not a single Irish coverup on our small turf, instead it is a internationally driven cover up in an effort to protect the key players, to ensure the next chapter is not endangered by possible civil unrest or even worse, total collapse of security and social structures.

      They are scared shitless, and in that respect will do everything required to not let the truth come forward, and everything required is a very wide term.

      This was a well orchestrated and internationally cooperated Heist, driven by an insider circle who also follow certain political ideologies blindfold.

      Their first and foremost mantra was always ‘LEHMAN BROTHERS’ to blind the public and attempt to create a long lasting meme. – A meme is basically an idea that transmits through cultures like a virus in biological systems. – It worked in deed for a long time, and only slowly the public begins to understand that all these events came down to a handful of individuals in the respective countries, driven by the same motivations and using the very same tools.

      Max Keiser eloquently calls them Financial Terrorist, and I would sign that in deed!

      While I am not a supporter for the death penalty, I would think a life sentence of cleaning toilets in Mount Joy would be a mild sentence in deed to be ruled on them.

      I suggest to print a couple of thousand WANTED! DEAD OR ALIVE! posters, of Politicians, Bankers, Developers and so on, known to have been involved in this Heist, and decorate the Irish cities with them. I imagine it to be a strange Feeling for Fitzpatrick and the likes to see his face on every street corner.

      Anglo is not investigated at all in the required manner, and was given all the time in the world to destroy evidence, key players still are protected by the existing laws which did not change an inch , and as a result it will come eventually to some show trials with a few black sheep to be slaughtered before the 2012 elections.

      This was a well executed internationally cooperated heist, and politicians, whether in Germany or Ireland, were fully aware about it and used the existing bureaucratic structures to avoid any accountability, however, they were in it up to their neck.

      Financial Terrorists, yeah, Max is right on that!

      April 21, 2010, 12:53 amLog in to Reply
      • laughingbear says

        P.S.

        No surprise, the IIF’s Chief Executive, Investment Banking, is James E. Staley, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

        Staley is the likely successor to Jamie Dimon. Total compensation for 2009, USD 8,96 mio

        April 21, 2010, 1:15 amLog in to Reply
        • laughingbear says

          P.P.S.

          The 2,000 pages report in Iceland was a shocking revalation to Birgitta Jondottsdir, to learn how key Politicians were involved from middle ranks to senior ranks to highest positions in government.

          Anyone suggesting this would have been different in Germany, Ireland, France, Greece, UK and so on? Of course not, it was the same, still is the same.

          April 21, 2010, 1:21 amLog in to Reply
    • Tim says

      Thank you, one and all. What a great read! How informative!

      April 21, 2010, 1:11 amLog in to Reply
    • Furrylugs says

      Just take a look at this for arrogance, the day after 1.5 mill went to Boucher the BOI Boy and Cowen denied he knew anything was wrong at INBS(When half the world was screaming Foul);

      http://www.independent.ie/national-news/nama-is-winning-public-respect-lenihan-2145269.html

      April 21, 2010, 5:40 amLog in to Reply
        • Furrylugs says

          And from Brendan Keenan at the Indo;

          “TAXPAYERS will have to pay more than €3m a year extra interest on money borrowed yesterday, compared with last month, as the Greek debt crisis sends interest rates higher……….Greece yesterday had to offer the same interest rate for three-month loans as the NTMA did for six-year bonds.

          Athens’ Public Debt Management Agency paid 3.65pc on 13-week notes — more than double the 1.67pc it paid on similar loans in January.

          The average yield on €750m of NTMA six-year bonds was 3.663pc, up from 3.479pc last month. A similar amount of 10-year debt was auctioned at a yield of 4.688pc, compared with 4.426pc in March.

          Longer-term interest rates on 10-year Greek bonds jumped more than a third of a percentage point to a record 7.84pc, as data showed unemployment rose to 11.3pc in January, the highest level seen in six years.

          Negotiations with the IMF, the EU Commission and the European Central Bank on a loan from the proposed rescue fund are due to start today.

          Greek finance minister George Papaconstantinou said that if his country did activate the rescue package of up to €30bn from its eurozone partners, the loans would start arriving within one to three weeks.

          “We will not be left high and dry,” he added.””

          Course you won’t Son. You’ve got the Paddies to borrow the money for you.

          Bloody Hell. This just gets beyond words.

          April 21, 2010, 5:48 amLog in to Reply
          • laughingbear says

            Furrylugs,

            I keep saying it, the whole system is broke, it is not only on the surface. In particular the correlation between banks and rating agencies. Banks go shopping, and in some cases buy their ratings, this is a fact!

            Last not least, let’s not forget, it was the very same ratings agencies who sticked AAA ratings on a dead horse.

            Why are private and profit oriented companies allowed to act as the general oversight to financial markets and capitalism in the first place?

            Yeah, that’s right, it is the very source needed to be able to rig markets, and as long as this system is not changed, the problem stays.

            April 21, 2010, 8:32 amLog in to Reply
            • laughingbear says

              I don’t have time for this, but may be David wishes to write about the Moody’s, S&P, Fitch?

              The analysis of these agencies determine the costs for borrowers, both, companies as well as countries.

              The conflict of interest comes in by the truck load to start with.

              Moody’s for example failed, I say refused for good reasons, to lower Enron for an entire months down to junk bond status.

              The acted wrong as well during the Asian crisis.

              if you talk to serious investors, to them it is nothing but a stamp, then again, as we know, it determines countries borrowing costs, hence is instrumental in the way this Heist is managed, and they have their own agenda which is anything but neutral to political interests.

              The lessons of Enron have not lead to a systematic change of the inherent design flaws, they are just too handy for the payers to rig markets.

              April 21, 2010, 8:45 am
        • G says

          Bord Failte’s latest marketing slogan:

          You want to get screwed, visit Ireland!

          Go to our website (pictures of horses running on beach and all)
          http://www.screw-me-ireland.com!

          April 21, 2010, 2:54 pmLog in to Reply
    • Furrylugs says

      http://www.businessworld.ie/bworld/livenews.htm?a=2587740

      Wills, Here you go now. This is how you stop it.
      Buy a hacksaw.

      April 21, 2010, 6:41 amLog in to Reply
      • wills says

        Furrylugs.

        Interesting link.

        Makes me laugh though when this expert talks on all financial markets freezing.

        April 21, 2010, 2:35 pmLog in to Reply
    • Furrylugs says

      Constantins on the warpath again.

      http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/

      How can we get this message across to the pulverised punter who doesn’t blog??

      April 21, 2010, 6:45 amLog in to Reply
      • G says

        Sent a postcard from a Barbados beach bar – wish you were here!

        April 21, 2010, 2:38 pmLog in to Reply
    • John ALLEN says

      Eamon Leahy SC – this man was one of the first people I suspected to have acted unprofessionally in his capacity as chairman in a state quasi body and I had grave reservations about his motives shortly before he died.His correspondence and meetings with me were deceptive and I sensed poison in the air about him.His actions frightened me then.

      April 21, 2010, 8:40 amLog in to Reply
      • laughingbear says

        Interesting comment on the then leading FF strategist John.

        Well, Bertie is still alive and could be summoned to a public hearing of course, if the people of ireland would force such investigative procedures to be implemented.

        April 21, 2010, 8:57 amLog in to Reply
    • laughingbear says

      Hahahaha, and they try to make the public believe that investigations are on the way since 14 month because of “the complexity of these matters’ concerning Anglo.

      Even the bigger picture It is pretty straight forward!

      The only thing that is complex here is the cover up at work.

      http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-abacus-2007-ac1-structure-2010-4

      April 21, 2010, 9:33 amLog in to Reply
      • liam says

        Jaysus. Somebody once said any sufficiently complex technology is indistinguishable from magic, this appears to be the financial equivalent

        April 21, 2010, 10:26 amLog in to Reply
        • laughingbear says

          You know, it just highlights that politicians can simply not take cover behind a curtain of Binyamin Netanyahu style ” How should I know, i wasn’t even in the room?’

          This system is so blatantly straight forward it is simply impossible anyone in the business of being a finance minister would not have known about it. In particular in a Maples and Calder Ireland since 2006!

          April 21, 2010, 11:13 amLog in to Reply
    • laughingbear says

      I do have a red line through my contributions here that I would like to emphasize again. Someone was asking me a minute ago what I think the political ideologies behind the curtains are made of and how that comes into play.

      Well here are my 0,2 cent., I am warning since a long time that red flags are up in the US and all over Europe concerning a new emerging breed of a very slick fascism on the horizon.

      The events of this Heist are linked.

      The grounds are prepared, and they are nourishing grounds to channel the anger and frustration of the working class who is looking for answers.

      Without going into an in depth analysis, just a few examples.

      In Germany the raise of the FDP, which holds a lot of fascist tendencies under the cover of neo liberalism is such a red flag as well. Guido Westerwelle is a a populist who’s public statements are nothing short of distinct Goebbels Rhetoric. The entire regiment of new policies is a great concern and signifies clear tendencies.

      Italy and Berlusconi, well I think this does not need a lot of explanations, it is rather self evident.

      Ireland is probably the most longstanding ultra conservative country in Europe where even the opposition would be deemed to be conservative. A alcohol induced catholicism poisoned public is rather indifferent to the dealings of their government, in a state of paralysis.

      The US, you should not be fooled to think that the Teaparty is only a band of yesterdays whack jobs who need not be taken serious. This is much more! They are constantly fed by Sarah Palin and Fox News, which is their source of Information about the truth, their only source in deed.

      All in all this Heist has prepared the grounds for a new emerging mass with clear fascistoid tendencies, manipulated and steered.

      One could say, Obama was supported by the Banks to be able to prepare his down fall. Obama might just have been installed on purpose to fail, to to make the come back of hard core republicans ever so stronger after Bush.

      April 21, 2010, 10:47 amLog in to Reply
    • cbweb says

      @FurryLugs 41

      “Negotiations with the IMF, the EU Commission and the European Central Bank on a loan from the proposed rescue fund are due to start today.

      Greek finance minister George Papaconstantinou said that if his country did activate the rescue package of up to €30bn from its eurozone partners, the loans would start arriving within one to three weeks.”

      Seems to me there’s a tipping point being approached this week. On the one hand, SEC (Securities Exchange Committee) investigation into Goldman Sachshttp://bit.ly/ay3Wrx is showing up DIRT. There’s mounting opposition in American Senate to the proposals for new regulatory powers in the US. Obama is going to address this today. Its between a rock and a hard place though, the more they try to unwind the paper trail derivative time bombs, the more they scare the markets?

      What they maybe need is a system of licensing for new financial products that will stress test each one with similar rigour to FDA regulations for new drug patents!

      While Greece gets ready to grab European bailout money thereby more rock and hard place stuff showing Greek weakness, Prof Schachtscneider constitutional challenge to Greek bailout is going ahead, he wants to see the euro broke up and countries like ours ejected!

      http://bit.ly/cthZHy

      According to Schachtscneider ‘no bailout clause’ policy needs to be reaffirmed and who could disagree with him?

      On a brighter note Dermot Mooney of Light Entertainment RTE was motivated yesterday to do a straw pole of listeners to see if they supported ‘Chemical Ali’s’ propaganda of the previous day that every day that passed showed greater growing support for NAMA. Result of straw pole phone in, 86% disagreed with Lenin!

      The Irish public are a lot wiser than some people give them credit for!

      Sean Fleming FF shows opposition to Anglo bailout
      http://bit.ly/caB5Kb

      Do you get the feeling the ‘centre cannot hold’

      “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;”(Yeats)

      http://bit.ly/5ydwfX

      Time to leave the euro, devalue, dump Anglo, renegotiate with our FF bondolders about that noose they slipped around our neck, default if we can’t negotiate. Hit bottom, bounce back with a new, fresh start and a new currency.

      Most of all, dump the Clown Gang of financial decentralisers who’ve sucked the life out of this place.

      As a going away present electronic voting machines to the moráns for quick disposal in the Bog of Allen. This be can be a sign of the beginning of our new smart economy! Not Clown Smart, as Jay Z would say, ‘really, really smart’ lol

      Obama has a tough speech today to calm the fears of the markets and support the new regulator powers/policies/SEC investigations/probes about which I hope to learn more.

      Meanwhile, I’m guessing its time to Fasten your seat belts, folks:)

    *****

    THE GREAT PROPERTY SCAM IS BACK TO RIP US OFF AGAIN: (April 21 2010)

    Having lots of time for your insights, and agreeing in particular with the argument that we are way over-reliant on property, I am always a little disappointed that you go after your thesis & your targets with such over-blown rhetoric. Isn’t it the journalistic equivalent of the blue skies of property porn? You are over-playing the malevolence of the Government & State, while under-playing the reality of human greed, individual responsibility and freedom of choice. On the one hand, you seem to be advocating State-level controls to be put on the property players to prevent them from tricking the poor, defenseless public again (“We should let property fall”), and on the other hand you are (rightly) complaining about previous actions of the State in relation to the banks and property market etc. I would have THOUGHT you would admit that one has to let the market dynamics take their course, and in so doing we have to accept the realities (“evils”, perhaps) of a certain amount of marketing from the property sector (including vendors themselves) and really should only rely on supplying as many facts as possible to let people make up their own minds. You are fighting fire with fire, marketing with exaggeration, biased opinion with loose rhetoric. Not the way to go? Need to stand above that, perhaps, in order to bring people with you and be believed? Are we too merely playing a game, putting in the hours, giving them what we’re asked for, or do we really want to bring about change by convincing people to act more sustainably?

    April 21, 2010, 10:37 am Log in to Reply
    • liam says

      Hello MyHat, Doesn’t matter how we got here since we can do nothing about that. It only matters what we do about it so lets not confuse backward looking analysis with forward looking insight.

      The assertion that anybody buying a house now is mad, confused or suffering from the effects of information asymmetry and Government spin is a sound one, nothing wrong with saying that.

      April 21, 2010, 11:12 am Log in to Reply
      • MyHat says

        Hi Liam. But sure there are 1000s of people buying houses in Ireland at the moment simply because … they WANT to. They are in the happy position of being in good financial health relative to the rest of us, and probably just want to “improve” their shelter. It is not madness, confusion or ignorance – just the facts of a sizable population. And their actions (under the influence of the money markets) will decide on the movement of house prices. Some may be influenced a bit by the marketing of the property sector, but the idea of having to protect them from such natural efforts to sell one’s products is madness.

        April 21, 2010, 11:41 am Log in to Reply
        • G says

          They may be in ‘good financial health’ (which I question) but they are totally out of their f**king little minds!!

          April 21, 2010, 12:13 pm Log in to Reply
        • s1lverbullet says

          @ MyHAT – “You are over-playing the malevolence of the Government & State, while under-playing the reality of human greed, individual responsibility and freedom of choice.”
          The problem with 80% of the people in this country is that the do what they are told and if they are told that now is the time to buy, as in 2003-2007, then they buy. These sheeple do not have free will, so it is down to the policy-makers to make sure that we are not scammed. Unfortunately the State is being run by malevolent people only interested in enriching themselves. And David is right, and all you have to do is open the Times or the Examiner to see the property game is on again. Or maybe believe the hype and you think this really is the time to buy, and in that case off you go, but somehow I dont feel you’ll take the bait

          April 21, 2010, 4:27 pm Log in to Reply
        • liam says

          If you are already have your own home, then of course, moving is a viable and maybe even sensible option if your desire for ‘improvement’ outweighs the transaction costs. In fact, so long as house prices remain artificially high in Ireland, more people remain in this category. It makes sense therefore for the vested interests of the housing market to talk things up. Its complete bullshit of course. The markets do not determine house prices simply because, as one poster here eloquently put it, the price discovery mechanism of supply and demand has been captured. NAMA puts a floor on prices and there is even talk of demolishing excess stock.

          First time buyers are of course fully outside this category of lucky individuals with fortuitously acquired equity. They are totally screwed and without them, you might get a temporary uptick but ultimately you are relying on rich people trading their houses amongst themselves. This also helps keep rental prices inflated. This can be good news only for solicitors, estate/rental agents, valuers, surveyors and other economic rent seekers. Its an economic drag on the rest of the country.

          People are of course entitled to (and in fact should be encouraged to) make their own independent financial decisions. The law requires financial institutions to act with probity not in the interest of buyers, but in the interest of economic stability. These right-wing appeals to individual liberty and all such other dubious and incomplete philosophies are a smokescreen, and its exactly the type of claptrap that cause this whole mess in the first place.

          April 21, 2010, 5:11 pm Log in to Reply
          • liam says

            High house prices are a consequence of prosperity, not the cause of it. Its time the Irish copped themselves on and realised this.

            April 21, 2010, 5:13 pm
        • Bamboo says

          MyHat,

          How many of the thousands of people are in a broken relationship or marriage and have bought the ex-partner out and is forced to buy again. Is there any statistics on this? Most of the people that I know who have bought in the last three years are in this situation.

          April 22, 2010, 12:18 am Log in to Reply
      • Julia says

        About a month ago I checked the prices of houses in Bray on Daft.ie. Not one house with 2/3 bedrooms available for under E250,000. After 24 years work I’m almost at the top of my payscale in the public service. I have a secure job. Post cuts I’m earning E49,000 a year. Great money I think and thankfully I bought years ago. Here’s the thing though. I rang my bank recently to find out how much they would give me if I were starting off again. They did some sums and told me I could have approx. E145,000. I’m almost 50. How are young people supposed to buy a house. Surely they all can’t all live in one bedroom flats. I’m glad David has pointed out that house prices must come down. Or else there must be a lot of young people on high salaries. Or, lots of people in their 50s want to move. I don’t think so. I never want to move again.

        April 21, 2010, 11:24 pm Log in to Reply
        • Bamboo says

          Well said Julia!!!

          April 21, 2010, 11:33 pm Log in to Reply
        • wills says

          Spot on Julia.

          The property market is used by the insiders to control society.

          April 21, 2010, 11:39 pm Log in to Reply
        • liam says

          Great real-world example Julia. What are young people supposed to do? They are supposed to emigrate. That’s always been the answer in this country and since the Irish political system favours the status quo so much I assume that is what they are hoping for now.

          April 22, 2010, 12:17 am Log in to Reply
        • MyHat says

          Yes, unaffordable property price are hopefully becoming a thing of the past. As the credit bubble is deflated prices will have to fall to match what people can afford. A lot of pain for many people in the meantime, sadly, but the only way in the long run.

          Re Bray 2/3 bed houses: we have tracked 11 2-beds under 250k in past 12 months (Average floor area asking price € 3,041 per sq.M (€ 282 per sq.ft)); only 4 of them newly on the market in that time though – rest were price changes; and 9 3-beds under 250k (€ 2,808 per sq.M (€ 261 per sq.ft)) with 6 of them newly on the market in that time. Probably will see more & more under the 250k price in the coming months & years.

          April 22, 2010, 11:40 am Log in to Reply
          • liam says

            A lot of pain for many people in the meantime, sadly, but the only way in the long run.

            Pain is pain. I’m curious as to whom you refer to as ‘many people’ and what you mean by ‘a lot’. Of course you are correct in what you say but these are rather vague qualitative statements and would most likely be true no matter what course of action is taken.

            As just a regular member of the great unwashed, the kind of analysis you provide is certainly useful but lack some contextual dimensions. You are comparing yesterday in La La land with today in La La land. How do these prices for example compare with average prices in Tokyo, New York, Paris? How do they compare with Reykjavik?

            Comparing raw numbers is straightforward enough, providing estimates of relative value is a different matter. Certainly personal circumstances play a part in this kind of value judgement but its hard to argue that 200k for a home in Athlone represents the same value as 200k for a home in Paris or Tokyo.

            April 23, 2010, 11:54 am
    • roc says

      “I would have THOUGHT you would admit that one has to let the market dynamics take their course, and in so doing we have to accept the realities (“evils”, perhaps) of a certain amount of marketing from the property sector (including vendors themselves) and really should only rely on supplying as many facts as possible to let people make up their own minds.”

      MyHat – you yourself were instrumental in setting up the original ST property supplement – no?

      It seems to me that you are saying in your post here that the reality of the market should rightly encompass the reality of propaganda. – I think you know quite well that the aim of this kind of property ‘porn’ is to construct a certain reality regarding property in the minds of people.

      Do you not agree that these supplements and articles and skewed presentations of statistics are designed to strike a number of unconscious and emotional vulnerabilities in the mass of the people – like their fears regarding their need for security and status; their fears regarding ‘missing the boat’; their natural avarice; and even (perhaps more than anything else judging from the tone and presentation of these property porn supplements) – their concupiscence.

      I feel that David is right – the purveyors of this garbage are nothing but creeps, snake-oil salesmen and spoofers.

      On the one hand, we have vested interests and institutionalised nitwits ‘talking up the market’. On the other hand we have these property supplements pretending to be straight forward marketing.

      There is a distinct lack of honesty, integrity and openness about the whole business that is going to be the death of us all.

      We need to change this.

      April 21, 2010, 1:58 pm Log in to Reply
      • Furrylugs says

        “concupiscence”

        Word of the week.

        April 21, 2010, 2:11 pm Log in to Reply
      • wills says

        Roc fair point, but myhat is getting at the eejits who let thmeselves be taken in.

        There are those who let themselves be taken in, and of course there are those who are wrongfully duped and then there are the organizers of this madness which you articulate in comment.

        April 21, 2010, 2:25 pm Log in to Reply
        • s1lverbullet says

          @ Wills – no no wills, MYhat is one of the many vested interests in this scam

          April 21, 2010, 4:32 pm Log in to Reply
          • MyHat says

            Vested interests: I make my living from selling, to anyone who will pay a fair price for it, summaries of property prices. Through PropertyWeek.ie we let the trade see more clearly what prices are doing; through MyHat.ie we let the general public do the same. In the meantime, I try hard to adopt a balanced view of the dynamics that got us into this mess. If you doubt my ability to think clearly, maybe a read of this post will allay your fears – http://myhat.ie/blog/?p=739

            April 21, 2010, 5:54 pm
      • MyHat says

        (Definitely not “instrumental” – was merely offered a decent hike in my income by an Irish entrepreneur who spotted the opportunity of making some money through the Sunday Times operation in Ireland. Like most people, including the journalists, editors, graphic designers etc whose work produces those supplements – just doing what I could & can to make a living.)

        I am arguing that using loose rhetoric & cliched labels & easy arguments (“corrupt politicians”, “greedy developers”, “evil bankers” etc) allows the likes of Williams to seem like he is being helpful, when in fact it is, in a way, adding to the problem.

        First & foremost we should make sure to protect ourselves from being susceptible to the inevitable efforts of others to rip us off. We should then have systems & channels of communication that make it very difficult for snake-oil purveyors to dupe people. Finally, we should have clear laws & punishments that make it very unappealing.

        At each level, we let ourselves down during the bubble. Not many are innocent by-standers. Some need to be named, investigated & penalised for not doing their jobs. Others need to be given a second chance with guarantees in place that they can’t repeat the same mistakes. The rest of us are going to get off scott free (at least if McWilliam’s angle wins out, as it very much seems to be here.)

        April 21, 2010, 5:50 pm Log in to Reply
    • Colin_in_exile says

      Why have you omitted the third largest city in the state, namely Limerick out of your website? Don’t need the business? Things going really well for you all there at myhat.ie?

      April 21, 2010, 11:04 pm Log in to Reply
      • MyHat says

        Very much need the business, Colin, but couldn’t get it in Limerick. In order to make it pay we need a handful of agents subscribing; the reports bought by the public wouldn’t pay us enough to keep going. In Limerick we had a few subscribers before 2007 but then lost them all to the market collapse and eventually had to stop tracking the Limerick market. Hopefully we’ll be able to start up again some time, though don’t know when. Apologies.

        April 22, 2010, 11:06 am Log in to Reply
    • Eireannach says

      @MyHat

      Here, here.

      David DOES portray the power dynamic with the little man in the street as David, while the bankocracy is Goliath.

      He consistently downplays the venality and gombeen gluttony of the Irish man in the street, as if these folks are in investing in property for some reason other than to enrich themselves at their tenants expense.

      Irish property investors are not ‘plucky little David’ going up against the big bad Evil Ones. The are more like little Lepraucháns high on cocaine and whooping ‘come on, spin the wheel there one more time Marty Whelan’. The property investing public have evil designs to get rich quick from ‘the upturn’ they want to believe in. Let them eat cake.

      April 23, 2010, 11:15 am Log in to Reply
      • MyHat says

        I’ve attempted a fuller analysis of David’s way of presenting things >>http://ow.ly/1C77S

        April 23, 2010, 11:55 am Log in to Reply
        • liam says

          Hardly a fair analysis, give your own use of “loose rhetoric & cliched labels & easy arguments”: Mc Williams argues…marketing should be banned & we should only be allowed to buy property with cash from under the mattress.

          Our host and everyone else here can speak for themselves, but I’d point out that its kind of insulting to me that you think I or anybody else reading this is incapable of drawing their own conclusions.

          But, if one ignores the emotional bluster, you do have some I think excellent points in there, particularly in reference to personal responsibility. You have however ignored the duty of the banks to their shareholders and in particular to depositors and that the banks operate at the behest of the state as fundamental elements of the financial system, thus should be regulated closely to ensure the stability and sustainability of this system. We are not talking about somebody taking opportunistic advantage of some inadvertent loopholes, we are talking about the active collusion between the state, the banks, developers and many others right on down the chain to grossly distort the market. If I get ripped off, that’s my own fault, but if the state is actively facilitating my getting ripped off, that’s another matter. And if I’m expected to pay for yet another round of fools being parted from their cash, then its time for a revolution.

          Anybody who regularly reads theses pages and in fact any dispassionate analysis of the Irish economy will strongly suspect that the housing market, and the general economy in Ireland is doomed, and will put their money where their mouth is, just as the bond markets are doing. Your conclusion that anybody who vocalises this view is therefore advocating tyrannical intervention is a non-sequitur.

          If you believe that people have an obligation to be as informed as possible in their own financial affairs, where do you suppose people are supposed to inform themselves on these matters? Would you prefer that people just listened to the opinions of the vested interests within the property sector, and the Government? Is there an approved list of sources of economic information somewhere that I missed?

          There is a awful lot of tripe being talked about the recovery of the Irish property market, much of which would not exist in a normal regulated and open market. What is wrong with calling this nonsense for what it is? We’re all in this party together after all.

          April 23, 2010, 1:20 pm Log in to Reply
  • sean79 says

    “There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.”

    April 21, 2010, 10:39 am Log in to Reply
    • G says

      Or from the Outlaw Josey Wales: “Don’t piss down my back Senator and tell me its raining!”

      This article enrages me – it is not a question of ‘learning’ anything, these politicians and money men (estate agents etc) are intent on not only driving us off a cliff, but on the throttling the carcass on the cliff rocks to ring the last pennies out of the mangled corpse!

      New government, and now!!!!

      Vote Labour, campiagn slogan: Your least worst option!

      April 21, 2010, 12:16 pm Log in to Reply
    • s1lverbullet says

      George Bush was no Oscar Wilde, thats for sure

      April 21, 2010, 4:33 pm Log in to Reply
  • Malcolm McClure says

    To get the housing market moving again the government needs to take the initiative and establish an auction-based floor value for each county.

    It should find ten middle of the road houses in each county and get each “valued” by three local estate agents. The houses would then be auctioned off to the highest bidder and the vendor of each would receive the auction proceeds plus half the difference between average valuation and realised price.
    The ratio between realized price at auction and average “valuation” would then establish the true valuation in the public mind. The cost of this exercise would soon be recovered from stamp duty when the market started moving again.

    April 21, 2010, 10:47 am Log in to Reply
  • rmb says

    Your calculations leave something to be desired, David. Are you using a 10 month occupancy assumption? You’re certainly not using 12, which is fair enough, but if you’re going to do these illustrative calculations it should be made clear what their basis is.

    An 11 month occupancy might be fairer, which would give a 3.80% yield.

    I agree wholeheartedly by the way, prices are still way too high. A look at any family home in any average-nice area tells you this.

    But maybe we need a new device rather than yield, or multiples of annual rent. A country that is ruled by those up to their elbows in property and its associated businesses may always be dysfunctional in this sense.

    April 21, 2010, 10:59 am Log in to Reply
  • Puschkin the Black and White Cat says

    David, sadly I made this observation myself. I thought about it, and I have decided that the reason we cannot forgot property is simple. Our nation is not industrial we have no industrial leadership our whole “system” knows only property. There never was a “Celtic Tiger” based on the “smart economy”, all that existed was a few “gombeen Paddies” borrowing money and playing a game of musical chairs. This game is interesting as it’s always the tax payer who is left standing. So why not play it again!

    April 21, 2010, 11:01 am Log in to Reply
  • bmv says

    Why do we have an auction system in the first place? Why not calculate the cost price of building a house including land price, and add a percentage profit? An auction system is designed to push prices up as high as someone is willing to pay.

    April 21, 2010, 11:10 am Log in to Reply
    • Malcolm McClure says

      bmv:
      It is not the vendor who establishes the value of an asset, it’s the purchaser, who decides how well his requirements are fulfilled and how he can extract value from his asset or increase its desirability prior to selling on.
      A well advertised public auction attended by bidders who pay a refundable deposit to bid is the best way to establish the value of anything.

      April 21, 2010, 12:04 pm Log in to Reply
      • bmv says

        Malcolm:
        Apologies. I was fuming at the time. I didn’t mean auction, and you are correct in what you say.

        I meant to say that when someone puts in a bid for a propery, the auctioneer takes the bid and waits for a few more. Then he has them bid against each other, driving the price up and up.

        Surely this practice should be outdated? It is in essence an auction mentality that suits the seller and auctioneer only.

        April 21, 2010, 12:33 pm Log in to Reply
        • Malcolm McClure says

          bmv
          I agree that the auction system is not perfect, but at least it’s out in the open. Just be glad that you aren’t subjected to the iniquitous Scottish system where sealed bids are opened by solicitors behind closed doors. Bidders are encouraged by their own solicitors to place bids 10% or 20% above the asking price to ensure that they are in with a chance! The old boys club there makes ours seem like the cub scouts.

          April 21, 2010, 12:48 pm Log in to Reply
          • bmv says

            Malcom:
            As I understnad it, in other countries like France and Spain, when an offer is in, it is considered a legally binding offer. The seller has to refuse the offer before accepting another.

            April 21, 2010, 1:38 pm
  • Peter Schum says

    I agree we now live in a bankocracy, and as I commented in this site last year, regardless of which political party is in power, it is now in their interest to direct government policy towards inflating property prices to ensure NAMA meets its growth targets. Can we change this, …I’m not sure. Lets just focus on getting the country moving. Maybe the Entrepreneur Show in RDS this weekend will show us some positive ideas for indigenous growth?

    April 21, 2010, 11:21 am Log in to Reply
  • Art1980 says

    History repeating itself – buying back into the property market only to fall further can be compared to that of the 1920’s stock crash……..
    Roaring Twenties. It was a technological golden age as innovations such as radio, automobiles, aviation, telephone and the power grid were deployed and adopted. Companies who had pioneered these advances, like Radio Corporation of America (RCA) and General Motors, saw their stocks soar. Financial corporations also did well as Wall Street bankers floated mutual fund companies (then known as investment trusts) like the Goldman Sachs Trading Corporation. Investors were infatuated with the returns available in the stock market especially with the use of leverage through margin debt. On August 24, 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at a value of 63.9. By September 3, 1929, it had risen more than sixfold, touching 381.2. It would not regain this level for another twenty five years. By the summer of 1929, it was clear that the economy was contracting and the stock market went through a series of unsettling price declines. These declines fed investor anxiety and events soon came to a head on October 24 (known as Black Thursday) and October 29 (known as Black Tuesday).

    On Black Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38 points to 260, a drop of 12.8%. The deluge of selling overwhelmed the ticker tape system that normally gave investors the current prices of their shares. Telephone lines and telegraphs were clogged and were unable to cope. This information vacuum only led to more fear and panic. The technology of the New Era, much celebrated by investors previously, now served to deepen their suffering.

    Black Tuesday was a day of chaos. Forced to liquidate their stocks because of margin calls, overextended investors flooded the exchange with sell orders. The glamour stocks of the age saw their values plummet. Across the two days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23%.

    By the end of the week of November 11, the index stood at 228, a cumulative drop of 40 percent from the September high. The markets rallied in succeeding months but it would be a false recovery that led unsuspecting investors into the worst economic crisis of modern times. The Dow Jones Industrial Average would lose 89% of its value before finally bottoming out in July 1932.

    April 21, 2010, 11:32 am Log in to Reply
    • coldblow says

      Have you been reading Galbraith’s the Great Crash? I’m getting towards the end and this is all very familiar. The similarities between then and now are quite striking. I was just reading last night about the head of one of their banks who borrowed from his own bank to buy shares in it. And the meetings that were held to make it look like something was being done, and the efforts to talk up the economy and… and…

      April 21, 2010, 4:38 pm Log in to Reply
  • Mick Regan says

    I notice that RTE might be heading that way as well. Showhouse (RTE1 8:30 last night) seems to be a dipping of the toes to see if there’s audience interest.

    Groundhog day?

    April 21, 2010, 11:35 am Log in to Reply
  • Colin_in_exile says

    Great Article David,

    We’re back to the kernel of the matter, the root cause for our problems. Expensive Property.

    It takes great courage to take a stand in this society of ours to say “No, I won’t buy property”. You are still looked down upon, viewed to be a little bit fruity maybe.

    So, why is there pressure on people to buy property?

    1. People who are in negative equity or close to entering negative equity want to suck you into their miserable world because they are bitter and twisted about their experience.

    2. We still have the “Renting is Dead Money” Brigade throwing in their tuppence. The root of this mentality surely comes from negative experiences of landlords ripping tennants off. So, instead of attempting to end the culture of landlords ripping tennants off, this Brigade want you to become a landlord yourself, a perverse sense of “if you can’t beat them, join them” rationale.

    3. Pride. As Deco has detailed here many times, Irish + Pride together make for a disasterous mix.

    Note; With birth rates falling (18.1 births/1,000 population (2008)), demand should be lower than supply of existing houses, which should result in property prices falling continuously into the future.

    April 21, 2010, 11:48 am Log in to Reply
    • Dilly says

      I cut my outgoings by two thirds when I sold up and went back renting.

      April 21, 2010, 1:01 pm Log in to Reply
  • tony_murphy says

    Thanks David for this article

    I know 1 person who has put a booking deposit on a house and another seriously considering buying.

    The “Soap opera” generation .. *roll eyes* They are easy prey

    I’ve sent a link to them this morning, hopefully it will help change their minds

    April 21, 2010, 11:56 am Log in to Reply
    • Furrylugs says

      I condensed the article and did the same Tony.(Sorry David). I take MyHats points above but a lot of young people are like lambs to the slaughter. They just don’t understand the risk of sinking every penny into this present market.
      Anyway, property starts rising when commercial heads decide it won’t fall any more, not when some first time buyer dons the rose tinted spectacles.

      April 21, 2010, 12:11 pm Log in to Reply
    • G says

      The British sacrificed 60,000 men on the first day of the Battle of the Somme, did they learn from it?

      The battle went on for another 5 months! Lost my great-grand-uncle on 16.07.1916, buried in Rouen.

      Ground gained: 9.7 km
      Numbers dead or injured: 1.5 million

      Lambs to the slaughter in every generation, you can only do so much, if people want to run towards the financial machine guns then that is their choice. A lot to be said for doing nothing, waiting.

      April 21, 2010, 12:23 pm Log in to Reply
      • tony_murphy says

        We can’t underestimate the lack of humanity of the elites or the stupidity of the general public

        April 22, 2010, 8:34 am Log in to Reply
    • silentobserver says

      I did a similar thing once to a friend in 2007, where he ended up paying at the peak of the market- unfortunately all I got was a tirade of abuse- so make sure these are very good friends. I’m not Irish, and it made me realise how attached the culture is to property. It ended the friendship!

      April 21, 2010, 1:36 pm Log in to Reply
  • Furrylugs says

    Brilliant piece of timing to publish this article the same day as MyHome.ie publish this;

    http://www.myhome.ie/residential/advice/whats-new/first-time-buyers-intend-to-purchase-in-the-next-year-2630

    The astute among you, ie all of you, will note this little comment at the end –

    Note to Editor
    Findings based on survey of 539 first time buyers who were surveyed between 8/03/2010 and 15/03/2010.

    Only 539. Hardly a comprehensive snapshot of the first time buyers market activity in Ireland but it does reveal that of the 539 house hungry souls, only 36% or 194ish actually have mortgage approval. Mortgage approval under what terms we don’t know but presumably sufficient to buy some hen-house.

    BTW, it looks like Doctor Dan has changed his name by deed poll-

    “””In his analysis of the results, independent economist Paul Murgatroyd, said first time buyers clearly do not expect market and economic conditions to deteriorate significantly within the next twelve months. “”

    Weeeee doooon’t beleeeeeve it Paul.

    April 21, 2010, 12:01 pm Log in to Reply
    • G says

      Will ask Fintan O’Toole about http://www.myhome.ie tomorrow night in the Rochestown Park Hotel @ 8pm.

      April 21, 2010, 12:35 pm Log in to Reply
    • Joeh says

      Google Paul Murgatroyd and check his linked in profile. Was a partner in DNG for 10 years, only left in May 2009!! Doesn’t sound like much of an independent economist to me!!! Especially when it comes to speaking about the Irish property market!

      April 21, 2010, 1:09 pm Log in to Reply
    • Deco says

      Furrlylugs – excellent peice of research.

      That quote that you mentioned
      {
      In his analysis of the results, independent economist Paul Murgatroyd, said first time buyers clearly do not expect market and economic conditions to deteriorate significantly within the next twelve months.
      }
      That has me really baffled.

      I have not met any of these people. Maybe I don’t keep company with all the optimists that “Dan 2.0″ manages to find.

      Rule number 1 of a debt ponzi-scheme economy. “You are not permitted to talk down the economy-even when it is telling the truth”.

      Rule number 2 “you are supposed to beleive that opportunists trying to talk up the economy are telling the truth, even when it is obvious that they are lying”.

      ….and then there is the picture of the attractive lady with a sign saying “welcome” a big smile and a pit of leg….here we go again…vested interests once again using sexual meaning as a means stiffening the demand curve for houses, when there are ghost estates everywhere.

      Advertising is always about strenghtening the emotional resolve of the buyer so that they are less concerned about price.

      April 21, 2010, 5:26 pm Log in to Reply
      • Furrylugs says

        Deco,
        “”once again using sexual meaning as a means stiffening the demand curve for houses””

        No pun intended Shurely???

        Thanks for the kind words.

        April 21, 2010, 7:08 pm Log in to Reply
    • matt says

      What a ridiculous and pointless survey. From the press release –

      “Two thirds of first time buyers plan to buy in the next 12 months”

      The most striking words in that sentence are “buyers plan to buy”. That’s hardly a unexpected result! What’s next? Swimmers plan to swim? Painters plan to paint? Runners plan to run?

      What might actually be useful would be a survey of people from the general population in the age-bracket where people typically first get onto the property ladder (25-35?) rather than self-identified “buyers”. Somehow I doubt the results would be quite so up-beat for the property market!

      April 22, 2010, 10:35 pm Log in to Reply
  • G says

    This is one hell of a f**king article!!!!
    Hallelujah!!!! Will be doing the rounds!!

    These sick property f**ks and their political asshole buddies are a threat to our economy and our democracy, there will be no recover worth its salt as long as house prices remain inflated. I ain’t touching the market, burn motherf**ker burn!

    Sitting Bull G.

    April 21, 2010, 12:12 pm Log in to Reply
  • SLICKMICK says

    The asking price for a 3 bed semi in Clontarf is still 750k, a bowl of soup and 1 dessert in the local alehouse is 9 euro!.Housing cost in Dublin is still double The level of Liverpool and Leeds!.Dan McLoughlins peeped above the parapit to offer some advice-a aman so inept , he couldn’t organise a prayer in a mosque.Will Fingers and Seanie be investing in the Irish property market?.

    April 21, 2010, 12:19 pm Log in to Reply
    • G says

      Relatively ok affordable houses in Crosshaven, Co. Cork have been advertised at €144,500, not too far from Cork city, right by the sea and the oldest yacht club in the world. By end of year (2011), they will be under €100,000!

      House prices are tumbling, there are those trying to hold out, keep things inflated, but they will not be able to hold back what is yet to come, the mother of all double dips, just sit, pour yourself a drink and relax, all will be revealed.

      The unsustainable and myopic nature of the Irish economy is slowly playing itself out despite the efforts of the vested interests, they are using up their resources for one last desperate throw of the dice, but the game is rigged against them. F**kers!

      April 21, 2010, 12:30 pm Log in to Reply
      • s1lverbullet says

        @ G – Dead on with your analysis. Anyone who believes the hype and buys now deserves to lose the lot. oh I forgot about the green shoots…..ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Any house now going for 140,000, in my opinion might hit 75,000 by the middle of next year

        April 21, 2010, 4:43 pm Log in to Reply
      • Bamboo says

        Don’t forget about the affordable housing scheme.
        County council is “awarding” the people these houses. It is a lot out of a lottery. Remember that!! You are the lucky one, if you are “awarded” an “affordable house”, it is not to be sniffed at. Take it with both hands, this is a chance of a lifetime and you should be eternally grateful for the rest of your living years.

        April 21, 2010, 11:31 pm Log in to Reply
  • MK1 says

    Hi David,

    Well, you are right, Ireland is not a democracy. But it is up to the citizens of this republic to make it so.

    Overall, we talk too much about property still, its last years “party”, we still have the hangover, we need to correct the structural cause of it to prevent it again and move on to other topics. Property is a utility (like clean ash-free air at 30,000 feet). It should be there, there is no ‘magic’ in it nor should there be. And people should not become wealthy because of abusing market shortcomings in its operation.

    In terms of the property market, part of the NAMA plan is as you know to be a significant player in the market and enough to influence prices upwards. That helps NAMA and ultimately those that it bailed out. It means the prices that people have to fork out for properties is more than it would have been otherwise.

    > Irish property is still extortionately expensive.

    It is expensive, but just like P/E’s in the US are in recent history above that of european stockmarkets, if everyone in a market is willing to pay ‘over the price’ or over the value, it does become the new ‘value’.

    > Ireland should try to ‘lock in’ the competitive gain that cheap property gives a country.

    Ireland can do many things. We can unrestrict property development so that anyone can build anywhere AS LONG AS it fits in with a general grand and detailed plan for the country. ie: yes, you can build an estate there as long as the facilities for 100 houses are served with shops, schools, etc.

    Ireland is also very Dublin-centric and has the ‘all roads lead to Rome’ problem which the Romans of ancient times ‘discovered’. The solution is REAL DECENTRALISATION, maybe a 50 or 100 year plan to rotate the capital between Dublin, Cork, Galway, etc, etc …. again, its back to a workable blueprint for the country.

    > We should let property fall to a level that we can all afford and then start again.

    but what level is that? Average salaries in the public sector are 50k, so if given loans at 2.5 and with 2 people thats a loan of 250k. We are at that now. Property prices will be like elastic, especially if planning rules (=curbs) stay in and there is ‘zoning’.

    > property hoodlums are back on the street again.

    They didnt go away, well, maybe to Portugal, but they were just holding their breath.

    > will be suckered into the false rally, known as a ‘dead cat bounce’.

    I dont know if we will have a dead cat bounce, but prices should remain soft for a while you would think as current demographics and economics suggest.

    > it’s hard to feel sorry for someone who believes the hype-property brigade.

    But here-in lies a catch. People have to continue to live, property is not an option, and people will want to ’settle down’ with all that it entails. So many that may have waited on the sidelines with good salaries over the last 2-4 years may now jump in as they see some value. Sure, downside may be there, but if they have a 5 year or a 10 year gameplan for the property, then they will buy. Its certainly not a flippers market.

    > Ireland has been turned from a democracy to a ‘bankocracy’. A democracy was one of those quaint ideas, like the notion that a state would be governed according to the interests of the citizens.

    agreed.

    > the State will do everything in its power to extort cash from the citizen to give it to the banks.

    Yes, and its painful and not needed.

    But riddle me this: land-owner A sells field outside Athlone to developer B for 30m. CGT paid is 20%, lets say 6m to State. Developer B gets loan from bank (eg: AnIB or INBS). 2 years later market ‘crashes’ (due to Lehman and Bear Stearns of course, wink-wink, nudge, nudge), developer B is bust, cant pay back loan. AnIB (or INBS) ’sells’ loan to NAMA (state) who pays 50% 15m. AnIB is recapped by 15m.

    Who gains+loses: Landowner A has netted 24m
    AnIB or INBS staff who made good salaries on playing ponzi
    Developer B may have made money on other deals before this one but has it safely stashed
    Government: CGT +6m, -15m paid from NAMA, -15m for recap +value of field in future (LTEV)
    Joe Soap: pays for Government – very negative

    But who is going to clawback anything from Landowner A (not that Landowner did anythnig wrong, unless they bribed local councillors for rezoning!), staff at AnIB (INBS, BOI, AIB, etc), Developer B ? ie: the money that Joe Bloggs is being forced to pay now IS somewhere else.

    Time to get back a democracy?

    > the politicians who presided over this mess have no intention of learning from it.

    My fear is that they cant learn from it. They are part of the problem.

    > like a firefighter letting a forest fire blaze out of control, irrespective of what was burned in its wake. The State had to do something at the time.

    But did we have to include babies (ie: joe soap) in the bathwater to put ‘the fire’ out.

    > the banks would collapse because of their funding difficulties.

    The banks DID collapse but have been saved by the state.

    > The deposits can be guaranteed, transferred and form the capital base of a new or existing bank and away we go.

    One problem we do have is that a lot of the deposits were used (abused), so AnIB which has 27b of deposits on its books doesnt really have that cash to pay back when demanded. A 100% guarantee of deposits will cost the state a lot if they banks were wound down in an orderly manner.

    > Look at the chart to see why.

    Can you put it up here, although I can imagine what it looks like.

    > Let’s say the yield on property has to be 7pc at least to make it worthwhile investing in property

    But in low interest rate situations (ECB 3%), a yield of 4% would be enough to make money, right? (presuming values stay at least the same).

    Values in ireland may stay over-priced (in relation to salaries) for a long time to come. This is an island nation after all with relatively few people and too many vested interests and controls.

    > fair value of 135,620.

    I dont think they will get that low due to all of what I’ve stated above. The market is not logical!

    Now may not be the time to buy or sell, yet people will still do it, as people are not average. I think daft.ie reported 30,000 house sales in 2009, which is probably half of what it should be. Its a depressed market but not completely dead amazingly. At least not yet a dead cat!

    MK1

    April 21, 2010, 12:42 pm Log in to Reply
    • Irish Sovereignty says

      “Well, you are right, Ireland is not a democracy. But it is up to the citizens of this republic to make it so”. What a classic statement. Before using a word findout its meaning. Didn’t read the rest of your rant but a republic is not a the same as a democracy.

      April 21, 2010, 1:19 pm Log in to Reply
    • Alf says

      “Average salaries in the public sector are 50k, so if given loans at 2.5 and with 2 people thats a loan of 250k. ”

      Hi MK1,

      I never really understood or accepted these kinds of calculations. They seem very seller oreintated and lack consideration of things like market debt and supply and demand. Ireland is way over supplied right now and unemployment is high; more so in the first time buyer segment who would be a key driver in new house sales.

      Why should mortgages be valued at 2.5 of average public sector salary anyway? To give an extreme example, if 50% of the population were unemployed and housing stock was oversupplied by double then the average public sector salary does not mean much.

      Surely these kinds of calculations belong up there with LTEV and are possibly part of the problem?

      April 22, 2010, 12:37 am Log in to Reply
      • MK1 says

        > Why should mortgages be valued at 2.5 of average public sector salary anyway?

        Its only a rough calculation method which crudely estimates the ability of a person to pay a mortgage loan over the long-term. Its a rough estimate.

        Other methods and formulas can be used, but at some point a lending institution will give person A an amount X to be paid back over N years, based on their current salary S and their expected costs.

        True there are risks involved, so hence the lower the amount of mortgage given per salary amount the better the chance it will be paid off. And during our frenzy we gave out more and more amounts, bigger and bigger and minimal deposits of 10% went to 0%, and even 100%+ mortgages were given, and people were borrowing from credit unions to pay for their stamp duty, etc, etc. Madness of course.

        The point I was making that even in the current market where house prices are decreasing slowly, two Public Sector workers on 50k would likely get loan approval for 250k. With the Public Sector being supported by extensive government borrowing and with NAMA owning a vast swathe of property in this country, these factors add to property price ’support’.

        That doesnt mean that prices will go up but its a factor which is keeping prices from going further down than the should. Markets are always made up of competing forces, whether real or perceived.

        MK1

        April 22, 2010, 10:51 am Log in to Reply
        • Alf says

          HI MK1, I agree. I guess the problem I see with it is that just because one buyer can afford a x loan does not really make the house worth x if a default occurs. The bank should consider how likely it can liquidate the asset at that price and if it really is adequate collateral. To give an extreme. If I can afford a 100 million euro mortgage based on my salary it does not mean the bank should give me a 100 million euros. The bank should consider how many could take my place (so they can get their money back) should a default occur.

          Factors such as supply and demand, unemployment should be factored in, but also how much real market demand or depth is at that price level. After all, the banks problems have been largely due to ‘marked down’ assets but this was partly because it had a seller-orientated model of valuation based on what the buyer could pay rather than the average demand was for the asset. Maybe this could have been avoided if a default scenario was more seriously considered.

          April 22, 2010, 9:41 pm Log in to Reply
  • Sean_Kelly says

    The government needs to stay out of the housing market and let free market economics function. The don’t have the balls to do the right thing because it would collapse the market in the short term. Long term its the best option. We need to take the pain and get this downturn over with asap. Its not going away.

    April 21, 2010, 1:15 pm Log in to Reply
  • wills says

    David.

    We are back to ‘Generation Game’ your book, which by the way ought to be on that list of ‘books of the decade’, a book worth its weight in gold.

    The Cronyist Bankocracy of Ireland.

    Defined:
    A network of interests holding in place a property bubble making economy which pumps the price of property up and up, again and again for loadsa money.

    ‘Property bubble making’ economy.

    Defined:
    A professional class of lawyers, accountants, politicians, bankers and admin under the grip of greed and amorality prepared to put their own selfish interests above all else.

    Tools of the community like media and credit provision under the control of a professional class whose own self interests reign supreme.

    Link this cartel of interests up and lock it down into the hubs of power and connect it into a gigantic money printing machine like the ECB and we get NAMA and bank guarnatees and ANGLO and banking tyranny.

    April 21, 2010, 1:19 pm Log in to Reply
    • wills says

      On ‘banking tyranny’ can i add the following.

      Banking tyranny is NOT bankers in suit and ties behind a desk handing out spurious loans.

      It is a well connected, well organized, well planned and well executed economic program.

      It is an operating program in the hard drive of credit provision and poses as the only show in town and the only way to do business etc etc and gradually over time manufactures a culture of falsity on free markets and labour provision and debt consumerism evolves and slowly and ploddingly society becomes hollowed out and needy and dependent and trance like and forgetful and the debt money system and its false paradigm become all truth.

      April 21, 2010, 1:32 pm Log in to Reply
    • coldblow says

      Yes that struck me too. The Pope’s Children is there but the two follow ups are better IMHO.

      April 21, 2010, 4:41 pm Log in to Reply
  • Tadhgd says

    This article is going to really p!ss some people off. The usual vested interests I guess. We should try and send to as many people as we can. I asked on this blog not so long ago what people thought would happen with property prices here and those that replied suggested only one way …and that was down. David quite nicely advised someone on Facebook a while back not to buy so this latest article won’t come as a shock to those who follow his posts. On the whole he is right but as MK1 points out we are not average people. Never the less prices will continue to drop but they are never going to become cheap. My sister nearly bought last week only the engineers report saved her. I tried to steer her away but at the end of day she is a grown adult and wanted her own home to start a family. Her husband has been laid off since last year and she had to take a pay cut of 5% despite earning less than the average salary. She was still offered a mortgage of 4.5 times on her salary alone and had to ensure a phantom bidder before having an offer accepted ! Nothing has been done by the government here when any idiot could see how a few simple actions could level the playing field even a little for the buyer. Only for the engineers report it would have been madness. The worst thing is that her husband prospects at the moment don’t look good. He was happy enough to tip along with a few quid in his pocket, do the job and leave Friday afternoon maybe head to a match with a couple of pints thrown in at the weekend. To be quite honest he never knew what was coming down the tracks and now that he has been mullered over no-one is going to give him a hand back up. I hope he finds a job but quite honestly it is looking like a miracle is needed. The government probably hope they will emigrate….

    April 21, 2010, 1:22 pm Log in to Reply
    • MK1 says

      > Nothing has been done by the government here when any idiot could see how a few simple actions could level the playing field even a little for the buyer.

      Agree. One simple action is true and accurate information on what price a property achieves. This is what any political party worth its salt will be demanding and no-one should vote for any party that doesnt promise to implement this. How can a market operate properly with no accurate information? It cant, simple.

      April 21, 2010, 5:16 pm Log in to Reply
  • paddyjones says

    Supply and demand will dictate the market , it always has. It is stupid to borrow money and then gamble it as many “investors” have . I would not borrow money from a bank and then “invest” it in the stock market so why do they borrow money and gamble on property.
    There is an unlimited amount of property on the market but very limited buyers about. Constraints are the availablity of finance and low earnings. Many young people earn about 30k but prices are about 250k, it does not make sense. So Davids point about “investors” is valid , they are the only buyers out there at the moment but can not continue to buy because of negitive equity of existing property, falling rents, availablity of finance, cashflow and low yeilds.
    A 3 bed house with garden and garage anywhere in Germany costs about 180k. A 2 bed apartment anywhere in Germany costs about 60k. If I was to borrow money to buy property i.e. take a gamble , Ireland would be the last place I would buy.

    April 21, 2010, 1:47 pm Log in to Reply
    • wills says

      paddyjones.

      The problem is is that the supply and demand is been manipulated and engineered by special interests.

      April 21, 2010, 2:20 pm Log in to Reply
      • Sean_Kelly says

        will,

        They can fight against the free market, but the forces are too strong to distort forever.

        April 21, 2010, 3:05 pm Log in to Reply
        • roc says

          Joseph Schumpeter remarked in the period following the boom of the 20’s, “During boom periods, ludicrously exaggerated opinions develop about the power of open market operations over business situations. On the other side, during the bust, the exact opposite opinion takes hold.”

          April 21, 2010, 3:46 pm Log in to Reply
      • s1lverbullet says

        exactly Wills. For the years of the boom supply has been plentiful, but how was it that prices kept going up? Manipulation???

        April 21, 2010, 4:48 pm Log in to Reply
        • MK1 says

          Not manipulation, but due to herding, lack of information, over-supply of easy credit, the lemming effect, and all those things that normally happen in a ‘frenzy’, a bubble market.

          My thesis is that many markets are not in fact accurately priced at any point in time, and seldom are in fact as they are usually over-priced or under-priced. In our case it was over-priced even when the values and the facts were telling people otherwise. Fields (potential to supply) were selling for 30million, 3-bed houses for 1million, etc. There was no overall planning for our little volcano-less island with 5 million people. Its called insanity in medical circles, and it was collective, of course NOT everyone, and not even the majority participated, but the average went along with it to a certain degree and for most the ‘benefits’ wafted their way whether they wanted to receive it or not.

          April 21, 2010, 5:24 pm Log in to Reply
          • Furrylugs says

            For us the war is over. We know too much, are too well travelled and will never be caught again due in no small part to David and the Internet.

            For those who dive in this time without making some attempt to ask for advice or guidance, who never question the garbage printed as “News”, caveat emptor.

            6-One Nama Eventually Will Survive dár le RTE-Pravda.

            April 21, 2010, 7:13 pm
        • Bamboo says

          Manipulation, gullibility, stupidity, innocence and pure greed.

          April 21, 2010, 11:40 pm Log in to Reply
  • luckyahern says

    Great article and agree fully with the notion that the property prices have a long way to fall before they recover.

    You critize the government for supporting the banks saying that they should have been liquitated.

    ‘No old bank, no old problem.’

    I’m not a fan of Nama either but what else could the government do? With most of the banks liquitated how could the economy work?

    April 21, 2010, 2:12 pm Log in to Reply
  • wills says

    Posters.

    This is comment by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev is worth a mention…

    ‘The reason for this is that our lending model allowed for that anomaly: banks were literally sucking out tens of billions of Euro area cheap interbank loans and hosing down a tiny economy with cash. As long as the boom went on, it didn’t matter whether the bankers actually had any idea why and to whom they were lending. Now, the tide has gone out, and guess who’s been swimming naked?’

    http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/

    Now this is interesting for a number of reasons primarily it beefs up my comment above but also it raises a crucial further question.

    At the point of entry of all this lending into the economy, mainly over the loan officers desk did lending take place in a prejudicial way.

    For example, did anyone who played by the rules and who wanted a loan fair and square and were straight thinking and independent minded and self empowered and assertive did this type of individual get cleared for a loan when ’supposedly’ the banks were lending to everyone.

    I contest that assertion the banks were lending to everyone.

    They were most definitely NOT lending to everyone in the time of bounty.

    I know from personal experience the banks were NOT lending to certain type of customer in the boom times.

    The customers whom the banks lended too fitted a specific profile which had nothing to do with credit credentials and all to do with other hidden pretexts.

    April 21, 2010, 2:55 pm Log in to Reply
    • Fergal73 says

      Wills – spell it out. Just who were the targets?

      In 2002 I went looking for a loan, fair and square, I had a fair bit of cash and a few small fixed deposits that I could access if the need arise. I was offerred 12.5 times my salary, on the basis that I was “young and my earnings would increase, and I had a bit of cash” behind me. I smelled a rat at that point. In 2004 I emigrated.

      IMO there was no target demographic – the banks would lend to anyone who could come up with a story on how they would repay.

      April 21, 2010, 6:18 pm Log in to Reply
      • wills says

        Fergal73.

        Its not about ‘targets’ its all to do with making the right moves to preserve ruling power at any given moment in time and who are the casualties while tactics are been implemented.

        April 21, 2010, 7:16 pm Log in to Reply
      • wills says

        Posters.

        Inter generational private pools of capital, under tight control and umpteen bodies overlooking and controlling it and what are we getting, we are getting destruction, destruction, destruction.

        Our society holds energy of wealth circulating through the cash ecosystem and yet we are been faced with the powers at be significantly destructing wealth and abusing the system in a systematic fashion.

        This is what we are all faced with now whether we like it or not.

        A Cronyist Bankocracy rules and is using the system to shrink wealth, this is what I am getting at in my post above Fergal42, shrink wealth and steal the wealth.

        If one looks at the credit system and one hears of the amounts on cash moving about in the background been given to the banks to bail them out and it happening without resistance and no questions asked and no heads rolling one can only but be asking, hang on a second, why can that not be done to build more hospitals and schools and do anything we want done that benefits all of society and that supports freedom.

        But, if one looks at it from an alternate angle and see’s throught the propaganda what surfaces is a cronyist bankocracy working a set of rules in the background that has been kept hidden from the rest of the masses. And one must consider that the system we thought worked in the favour of the regular citizen is in fact been used in a way which is not adding up which ever way one applies common sense and knowledge to even the main basic information on all of this stuff we see on nothing more basic than the 6 o clock news.

        April 21, 2010, 7:31 pm Log in to Reply
      • wills says

        I assert in the system there is unlimited wealth creation ability and there are self serving ruling elites stifling this and interfering in it to stop this unlimited wealth creation from happening.

        The system is designed to suppress wealth.

        We have to turn this on its head. Find the energy to turn it all around on a micro level, individually and in step with reclaiming ones own personal power back.

        Are you with me so far posters.

        So, we must believe its possible to reverse the process and shift the power away from the suppressers of the wealth creation, the cronyist bankocracy holding down the system and take the power back on a micro level.

        One can do this by quietly deciding to start to walk more each day instead of using car.

        One can start to eat a better diet and work from there.

        One can start to slow down breath control a little day by day.

        One can select out of diets hydrogenated fats, less sugar, high fructose corn syrub eradicate from diet and so on.

        Simple micro level choices all add up.

        The crony bankocracy functions on the basis that people are laizy and not interested in been healthy and wanting a more fuller life.

        April 21, 2010, 7:43 pm Log in to Reply
        • Fergal73 says

          There’s clearly a set of society that is the top of the pyramid (as there is in every society – and always has been, even back to tribal / hunter gatherers, there was always a leader).
          At the top now is Goldman Sachs.

          It is worth noting, that we in the west are a part of that pyramid. Our standard of living is higher than that of the people in the 1940’s in Ireland. We have central heating, cars, tvs. We are wealthier, though maybe not happier.
          Real wealth has been created around the world, although there are clearly losers, and wealth creation does not equate to happier people.
          What is happening is a re-allocation of the wealth, from the western masses to the western elite. By masses, I mean upper middle class – the guy on the EUR100K job needing to work 12 – 14 hour days all the way down to the pensioner and unemployed person on the dole. If that is what you mean by “specific profile” fair enough. It would be easier to say that the people in the top tiers of power and wealth have re-allocated 10 years of wealth creation from a wide base to a narrow one.

          Irish people will still vote FF, because they think anyone else would be worse. So, FF will continue to put the developers and the bankers and the senior civil servants (who wouldn’t know a 14 hour day except when it comes to negotiating their way out of a pay cut) and of course themselves before the good of the people. As Albert said “sure I’m worth more to them than that” in reference to teh EUR 170K PA that it costs to keep him in drivers and a car.
          I’m not sure who the “them” are, but safe to say it’s not the majority of the people of Ireland

          April 21, 2010, 8:49 pm Log in to Reply
          • wills says

            Fergal42.

            Too complicated for me this, I will stay with my version in comments above.

            April 21, 2010, 10:06 pm
    • Bamboo says

      “They were most definitely NOT lending to everyone in the time of bounty.”

      Wiils, I can confirm that too. I had all the credit credentials but I couldn’t get any loan approval. Although I am the main earner in the family, I had to let my wife deal with the banks. All I had to do is sign it and as long as I don’t show my face then everything is OK. Unfortunately it took us a long time to find out why.
      Besides the bank we had to deal with estate agents as well. Again as long as I don’t show my face everything was fine. So my wife had to go and view the different properties on her own.

      April 21, 2010, 10:12 pm Log in to Reply
      • wills says

        Bamboo, well now more truth on it as it really happened, I wonder if anyone else had similar experiences?

        April 21, 2010, 11:38 pm Log in to Reply
  • Tull McAdoo says

    David I dont think this is a “dead cat bounce” as it has all the hallmarks of an “echo bubble” http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/echobubble.asp
    It also appears to be well orchestrated, given that FF has all their new faces in place at the Banks and elsewhere. My take on this for what its worth is to create a buffer zone between the uber-rich in Ireland and all the rest by inflating an echo property bubble which will be supported and protected by a delusional middle class ably assisted by professionals who will be thankfull to restore some sense of privilige just as the mammies had ordained.

    April 21, 2010, 3:53 pm Log in to Reply
    • Tull McAdoo says

      Apologies for my lack of engagement of late as I had to contend with the aftermath of a rather destructive shower of large hailstones which battered the bejasus out of us here in Perth. for those of you not up to speed on these heavenly events I would suggest youtube for our version of shock and awe. Lookup perth hail storms awesome stuff. I suppose it would be arrogant of me to suggest that it was my critisism of FF that angered the Gods thus.

      April 21, 2010, 4:05 pm Log in to Reply
  • Father-fool-em-all says

    I fear that Irish property’s Vested Interests are too powerful on this little island. Everything that can be done will be done in order to help NAMA work. Too many powerful reputations are at stake to allow it to fail. So yes! property will now be reflated by luring in those pent up buyers that have accumulated in the last 2 years and Yes! here we go again. FFS! the bleein Tea Shock is up to his jowls in Birmingham apartment deals. He’s hardly gonna stand by and watch the value of his poxy little dog boxes go down the jacks. So what do we do? Whine on about it or take some action? I aint much of a leader but I know good leadership when it stirs me. Who wants the job?

    April 21, 2010, 4:35 pm Log in to Reply
  • Deco says

    So the question…concerning the intellectual state of the society…considering all the scams that have been revealed….will the lemmings be whipped into a state of euphoria again over property ?? …..you just never know….

    April 21, 2010, 5:30 pm Log in to Reply
  • Tim says

    Folks, Max Keiser just tweeted this, about the Government of the Netherlands protecting its people from under-handed bankers:

    Netherlands gov’t to ban Goldman. Kamer: wij kunnen wel zonder Goldman Sachshttp://bit.ly/cY0ure

    Will our crew EVER protect us from Peter Sutherland and his gang?

    April 21, 2010, 5:50 pm Log in to Reply
  • G says

    Ferguson – Safe As Houses (Ascent of Money)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McIcrz9YFmA

    April 21, 2010, 5:59 pm Log in to Reply
  • Pauldiv says

    David, Great article and the charts were a nice touch for non economists like myself who only want a high level snapshot of the current state of
    affairs.

    The opening sentence was a blinder and it is good to see a high profile man of smarts using such language to describe these property psychopaths. Keep up the good work and don’t ever let the buggers off the hook.

    The Irish people can’t claim they have not been warned about the folly of emotional attachment to property. It will take decades for this programming to be removed from the national psyche, if ever, because as someone once said “there is a fool born every minute”.

    We have fundamental problems with our government. They need high property prices yet there are 60,000 on local authority waiting lists while there are >300,000 properties lying vacant. This is a crime against Irish
    people.

    People are getting pissed off and the gov’t are continuing to squeeze us. Next we have the carbon tax, water charges and the next rounds of savage budgets to face. You can only squeeze a guy’s nuts so much before he gets mad and says ‘fuck you’ and gives you a Glasgow kiss. This country is warped, sure, but I for one will stay and fight rather than flee like so many have done before us – even if it just to spite them 🙂

    Ireland’s Ghost Estates
    http://irishlightandcolour.com/Landscape-ghost-estates.php

    April 21, 2010, 6:49 pm Log in to Reply
  • Tim says

    Look at this unfortunate typo in this pic of a Florida TV news bulletin:

    http://tweetphoto.com/19347279

    April 21, 2010, 7:43 pm Log in to Reply
  • Alan42 says

    People involved in selling property are sales people . Estate agents to newspapers to vested interests who hold worthless bank shares etc . They are not involved in a ‘ porn ‘ like industry .

    People should really grow up and realise that EA’s are in the business of selling houses and that newspapers make big money from their property supplements . That is their business . What kind of a sales person have you ever met that has told you ” to hold off for a while , prices will drop further ? ”

    I am surprised that somebody like David here who has been banging on about over priced property for years would use a word like ‘ recovery ‘ about Irish property .

    I don’t live in Ireland and I have no ‘ vested interest ‘ in Irish property . However is property not already recovering ? Is it not returning to a sustainable level ?

    Anyway , how can property not fall further ? You have massive personal debt , high unemployment , bust banks , everything is either moving to Eastern Europe , China or India . A government that has no clue about job creation , a massive national debt that is growing by the second to pay for NAMA and Ireland inc .

    We have Greese about to topple with Spain and Portugal to follow . I think we are next in the domino line .

    I was in Ireland at xmas and I spoke with somebody who has a great business mind . We were discussing the banks . He said and I kid you not . ” I don’t know what will happen if the banks will not lend after xmas ” I was stunned . What was he expecting , a visit to AIB or BOI by Santa ?

    Although in fairness to Irish people who like to blame everything on evil porn like people . Having the government as a major vested interest in property is really nasty .

    April 21, 2010, 8:12 pm Log in to Reply
    • wills says

      Alan42.

      Your missing D point.

      The property market is rigged and alorra people are rigging it across the professional classes and he is making the point that these people involved in rigging the market are the very ones creaming the market when the bubbles inflate.

      And D use of the metaphor ‘porn’ is just that, crikey youve really skewed a rather black an white and accurate article.

      April 21, 2010, 10:14 pm Log in to Reply
  • Bamboo says

    For some reason I have a feeling that we’ve gone through this discussion before. Unless there is a new generation suddenly coming up in this forum. I don’t think so somehow.
    I think by now everybody should be well informed unless they have been living on another planet in the last 3 years, were in coma or stoned.

    So for those who have been away or asleep and have no idea what has happened in the last three years, they should really try and pick up the pieces of what has happened. The media will help them a bit.

    For those who want to or think of buying, I suggest to pinch your arm and check if you’re asleep or awake.
    For those who think this a nightmare, well it is not. This is reality.
    For those who were told and believe that builders are having a hard time getting work. Well, they are having a whale of a time. Lots of families are adding extensions to their properties and building costs have gone up since the boom.

    April 21, 2010, 10:48 pm Log in to Reply
  • Bamboo says

    David,
    You choose the title “The great property scam is back to rip us off again
    When did this property scam ever left us alone. The GOV talked about the come back of the property market since it started talking about NAMA. Anybody vested interest in the property game talks about a come back or bottoming out”. There is no such a thing as “bottoming out”.
    My understanding is that “Bottoming out” means that it will go up again. Rising up from the bottom. So this is another delusional idea that Irish people have. When it will reaches the bottom it will stay at the bottom. Some are talking about a “dead” market. Well, my understanding of “death” is that it never ever, ever will come alive again. Unless you are so unfortunate to believe in the resurrection. In my opinion there will be a new property market and not a resurrected one. A market that is geared and open towards a balanced society.

    April 21, 2010, 11:18 pm Log in to Reply
    • wills says

      Too true bamboo, and I go further and assert the insiders use the property market to control society.

      April 21, 2010, 11:41 pm Log in to Reply
      • Bamboo says

        The problem is that insiders can’t shoot each other. Seany Fitzy for example. If any of the insiders starts attacking him he will reveal all the details of the other insiders. Remember Kieran Boylan, a notorious drug dealer with convictions in Britain and Ireland, who was granted a license to conduct his business as a haulage contractor. He threatens to reveal Garda practices if he didn’t get his license.

        April 21, 2010, 11:53 pm Log in to Reply
        • wills says

          …..imagine though if they got so paranoid due to extent of scamarama that like the end of a caper movie they’re capacity for holding it together crumbled on they all turned on each other like ‘ladykillers’ movie end..?!!

          April 22, 2010, 12:10 am Log in to Reply
        • s1lverbullet says

          On the ball Bamboo. If anyone of the scum gets jailed then he will bring the whole house of cards down with him. Nothing will change cos Cowen and co. have no control. The air fiasco is a prime example. Cowen says they had to ground all planes for safety reasons. But it wasn’t his decision, was it? The EU calls the shots and the banking elite control the EU…..SIMPLE AS THAT. All government policy and tax laws are written to suit the elite, why else is there no DIRT tax on company bank acounts and corp tax is so low? oh the sheeple will pay all the tax and now they want us to pay for water. 2bn to install meters when the same could be spent to fix the leaky pipes and create a lot more employment. figure that one out!!

          April 22, 2010, 12:19 am Log in to Reply
          • Bamboo says

            Most of the water meters have been installed in my street about 4 years ago. One day county council decided that bits of the concreted footpaths are no good and they started digging it up and installed a water meter. The areas with the bad patches of concrete were not touched. I always wondered why they did this until my plumber told me that I had a water meter and I asked around my the neighbors if they had a water meter and surprisingly, yes they do.

            April 22, 2010, 12:33 am
          • s1lverbullet says

            How about this one Bamboo. In a few years they will sell off the water to a big american corp. and we will have poor people in this, the wettest country prob in the world, without access to clean water. mark my words this is the plan

            April 22, 2010, 12:38 am
          • Bamboo says

            I wouldn’t be surprised at all s1lverbullet

            April 22, 2010, 12:44 am
          • BigJim says

            Let’s keep some realism, Silver Bullet; not even the sheepish Irish electorate would wear that one !

            April 23, 2010, 12:39 pm
  • Alf says

    Hi David,

    During the property bubble, estate agents were indulging in all sorts of manipulation, such as fake bids at auctions to pressure buyers to pay a higher price. Other shenanigans such as colluding with mortgage brokers to fish out the buyers upper price limit. The whole estate agent auction process will need to be reformed so that all bids are public and verified; all of this will be needed before investors can trust again.

    Even so, some forget that Ireland’s “Celtic Tiger” started with a real boom in the economy; based on a change in corporation tax and an influx of US multinationals. It was a real economic change, rather than just cheap bank money, that created the primary wealth which fed the property boom. It was this initial wealth, which was then taken and pyramided by the banks; this turned into a bubble.
    But where is the new wealth supposed to come from to start the property bubble? Without new growth there will be nothing for the banks to pyramid except more and more debt. Also, more importantly, there will be even less money in the economy to pay off existing debts. And with the State’s finances in dire straits, the doubling of the national debt approaching, there will have to be a claw back.

    Being stuck in the Euro, with no way to devalue, austerity measures and economically damaging deflation must be on the way. The taxpayer will have to foot the bill.

    With the prospect of more cuts, taxes and levies are on the horizon where will the incentive to invest come from?

    Its definitely not at good state to be looking to start a property boom.

    April 22, 2010, 12:13 am Log in to Reply
  • BigJim says

    First-time comment – great piece, David.
    Do I detect a lot of comment and criticism and, on the other hand, a distinct lack of constructive suggestion ?
    Honesty is a good starting point – we all had our fingers in the till; from minor fiddles of small cash and pulling ’sickies’ all the way up to the ‘NAMA Top Ten’.
    Only when honesty again prevails, with zero tolerance all round, will we actively begin our recovery process; otherwise we can wait, passively, for someone else’s process, over which we’ll have no control, to arrive at some stage in the distant future !

    April 22, 2010, 12:16 am Log in to Reply
    • Furrylugs says

      Welcome BigJim.

      April 22, 2010, 12:27 am Log in to Reply
    • Bamboo says

      Welcome BigJim, late night and look forward to your comments.

      April 22, 2010, 12:35 am Log in to Reply
    • liam says

      Welcome BigJim. I’d ask you to consider this: what was the actual increase in the proportion of owner-occupiers as a percentage of the population during the boom? The government would have you believe that there is a collective and uniform responsibility to be dealt with, it is quite simply and plainly a lie.

      It matter not how we got here, only what we are going to do about it. Currently we are planning to punish many for the sins of a few, and in the process enrich the very people who caused the problems in the first place.

      April 22, 2010, 12:42 am Log in to Reply
      • Bamboo says

        It is in the GOV’s interest to have the public forget about the past and how we got here,
        Anyone who’s caught with their pants down in the act would want to forget how he got his pants down in the first place.
        Any other news like the volcano is a welcome break for the GOV so they it can have some breathing space.

        April 22, 2010, 12:51 am Log in to Reply
        • liam says

          We can’t change the past. Not suggesting we forget about it.

          April 22, 2010, 10:25 am Log in to Reply
          • roc says

            The point is that we need to understand precisely the phenomena of the past so that we can take actions in the present to attain a new EQUILIBRIUM.

            For example, if the values that were commonly held were largely responsible for our predicament, let’s swing those around to their polar opposite.

            Or, another example; if we were borrowing like crazy to live beyond our means, then let’s counteract that with other philosophies in this regard.

            So, it does matter very much how we got here – it holds the key to deciding what we need to do to reach a sustainable equilibrium.

            But, since many are unable to admit their culpability and face up to their past and their behaviour (in terms of the values they held, their financial shennanigans etc.), then nothing will change – rather we will continue going further and further away from the needed equilibrium.

            This is what is currently happening. Attitudes like yours are a huge hindrance, actually.

            April 22, 2010, 10:53 am
          • roc says

            We can only create an adequate movement away from the phenomena of the boom era to create this new needed equilibrium by pathologising the type of behaviours and values that took us so far away from equilibrium.

            We desperately need to adequately pathologise the following kinds of phenomena:

            (a) Cronyism in business and politics
            (b) Borrowing to fund essentially unproductive business
            (c) Channeling taxpayer money through tax breaks and grants to fund essentially unproductive business
            (d) Corruption in business and politics that engendered essentially unproductive business
            (e) Borrowing to fund speculation and extravagant life-styles etc.
            (f) National fixation on property, and more generally, economic rent-seeking in all its guises (we need these kind of businesses like a hole in the head).

            The best way to pathologise and create a movement away from these things is to utilse the courts and legal system to the greatest extent that they are capable of.

            Since we are not doing this at the moment, there is not enough movement away from the above pathologies – in fact, we’re still doing the same things!!

            We will never reach the needed equilibrium at this rate.

            April 22, 2010, 11:18 am
          • liam says

            roc, I understand your point, I think you are framing my comment in an entirely negative context.

            We cannot change the past. I think its hard to argue with that statement unless you possess a time machine. And I repeat: that’s not to say we can’t learn from it. Don’t see these as tremendously difficult ideas.

            My ‘attitude’ is to deal with the truth in so far as it can be discerned, and to consider what are possible ways forward to a desired outcome. The OP exemplifies this in my opinion.

            April 22, 2010, 4:49 pm
          • BigJim says

            Didn’t intend any implication, Liam, that we should take either course ; “we are what we are, and we are what we were” – surely the issue to be addressed is “what will we be ?”

            One major issue which I believe we must address is the failure of the established political process, of which failure this discussion is a good example : historically, participants in a discussion such as this vented their opinions through established political structures ; currently we retreat to our PCs, and the political energies created are a mere tiny fraction of what historically impacted on the system and under which, alas, we are still governed.

            The requirement for equilibrium is a ‘given’, as is the absorption of the lessons of the past; dare I suggest that a presumption that all contributions are fully read before shooting off a response is reasonable too ?

            April 23, 2010, 12:40 pm
        • BigJim says

          Agreed, but what are you going to do about it ?
          Don’t get mad, get even !

          April 23, 2010, 12:40 pm Log in to Reply
          • liam says

            That’s the big question all right, collectively and personally.

            April 23, 2010, 1:35 pm
      • BigJim says

        I don’t disagree with you , Liam, but we must move on, having absorbed the lessons; there’s obviously a total lack of confidence in the establishment, so from where else will the impetus emerge, other than at the bottom ?

        Just because we’ve been enjoying relative independence for the past 80 years doesn’t mean that we’ve completely lost the rebellious instincts of the previous 800, or does it ?

        April 23, 2010, 12:39 pm Log in to Reply
  • Furrylugs says

    Paul Krugman coins a phrase here;

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/21/low-information-voters/?src=twt&twt=NytimesKrugman

    We’ve got too many Low Information Voters in Ireland, either unwilling or unable to learn. How do we turn the country into a questioning society full of Long Term Educated Voters?
    Or LTEV’s.
    Sorry.
    Couldn’t resist.

    April 22, 2010, 12:27 am Log in to Reply
    • liam says

      Information asymmetry, mixed with an appeal to emotion and common personal insecurities is what you are up against. It is overwhelmingly a lack of will rather than a lack of ability that prevents progress, from what I can tell.

      April 22, 2010, 12:33 am Log in to Reply
      • Furrylugs says

        Agreed Liam.
        Having returned here from some years abroad, I notice that many of the people who never left have become conditioned to accept and not question. This is tangible here because anyone who doesn’t comply soon finds the business leads cut off.
        I myself have suffered from this Boys Club mentality, when in fact, with 4m people, we should be like Switzerland. Millionaires all.

        April 22, 2010, 11:05 am Log in to Reply
  • David McWilliams says

    Morning,

    Thanks for all the comments. I was distracted yesterday by Greek bonds going to 8.17% . This is clear default territory as we have noted here over the las few weeks. The question is whether there is any way to prevent contagion or is contagion exactly what we need to put a rapid end to this episode and look to the future?

    Best David

    April 22, 2010, 7:18 am Log in to Reply
    • laughingbear says

      IMHO in a desperate move this weekend the Worldbank proposes their biggest stockup since 1988. +58 billion approaching 200 billion.

      At the same time voting quotas are supposed to undergo some restructuring, still the US will hold 15,58% of the votes.

      What is your view on this move?

      April 22, 2010, 10:59 am Log in to Reply
    • MK1 says

      Hi David,

      The problem that Greece has is that it started with a large goverment debt (which it tried in vain -illegally?- to conceal) and it has so far not tackled its current deficit which has ballooned.

      Thus to the market its like watching a car about to crash in slow-motion, and with plenty of other debt to support globally, there are other safer havens.

      Greece bonds are heading towards junk bond status, BUT, there are still buyers PLUS each time Greece has gone to the market it has got funds. A lot of attention is on Greece but it is a small player in absolute terms, quantity wise. As are we in Ireland. Ireland is also paying over the odds for money.

      Btw, Fitch has Japan on ‘credit watch’ today due to its debt size yet its 10 year and 30 year money is at rates much much less than even Germany. Note that the US and the UK bonds also trade above that of Germany.

      Greece may be the focus point but its has solutions at hand to turn itself around, but it HAS TO grab the nettle, reduce public deficit, and start gathering taxes. It can brake and turn around that crashing car. It might be bumpy for the passengers but its better than going off a cliff or using the IMF/EU airbag.

      MK1

      April 22, 2010, 11:04 am Log in to Reply
      • s1lverbullet says

        Why in god’s name do we care what Fitch, Moody’s, et al say about the credit worthiness of various countries. These rating agencies are highly corrupted and are just fronts for the big lending institutions

        April 22, 2010, 11:17 am Log in to Reply
    • Furrylugs says

      http://www.businessworld.ie/bworld/livenews.htm?a=2589061

      The IMF forecast won’t help David. Our shower still think they can get away with “Ukraine Tractor Production” economic forecasting.
      Since nothing is being invested into SME’s, at least nothing SME’s believe in, we’re not going to generate the wherewithal to consolidate the present mess.
      I for one would have nothing to do with any Government Quango offering gifts (Greeks bearing??) because they’re populated in the main by timeservers, of the non-IT variety.
      Ask any SME applying for a grant or Farmer looking for REPS. The money is spent in time, effort and paperwork before one can prove one should have it. Bit like the old days when applying for a small loan from the banks.

      So I think we’ve gone from being circled by sharks in a feeding frenzy to barracuda taking judicious nips until the time comes to move in for the kill.

      That’s not negative, nor is it knocking Ireland. It’s the truth. And the only way to break out of this cesspit is to let our own dogs of war loose. It mightn’nt be pretty for a bit but the markets will seek easier pickings if we fight them with every weapon in our arsenal, including telling the DeutchECB to pee or get off the pot.

      We are kow-towing to an outside force again when history tells us that standing our ground is the only way forward.
      F

      April 22, 2010, 11:27 am Log in to Reply
      • laughingbear says

        I said it on Constantin Gurdgiev’s blog and I am certain about it, the introduction of the Euro 1999 was based on an essentially flawed concept, ever increasing liabilities of importing countries, a drunk can see this not to be sustainable.

        The Euro is a dead horse and inevitably will be abolished.

        April 23, 2010, 12:51 am Log in to Reply
  • John ALLEN says

    David – another very good article by you as usual.Might I suggest that some date in the future that you include – the fine difference between risk taking and recklessness by bank management etc .I believe this important and might reduce the blurr of confusion by the public in general.

    April 22, 2010, 8:30 am Log in to Reply
    • laughingbear says

      20 years ago already? April 1990 Hubble transmitted the first pictures. i remember it like yesterday, for many nights I sat on my computer on a 14.4k dial up downloading Hubble material from the NASA server.

      April 22, 2010, 10:43 am Log in to Reply
  • John ALLEN says

    Moon Wobble – it has been a while since I made any celestial comments . Just to say now the following:

    1 The Icelandic Volcano was disrupted from its sleep during the Wobble and Blue Moon at Christmas and from Jan there were a series of small earthquakes in Iceland prior to the disruption on 20 March ; and

    2 Full Moon is on the 28 th April so as of today until 29 th it is a very dangerous period and the PULL of the MOON will magnify greatly during this time .So expect anything in these moments .We are due big surprises .Hold tight.

    April 22, 2010, 8:43 am Log in to Reply
  • laughingbear says

    …fwiw, continuing my thoughts on a new emerging fascism in Europe and the US from Davids last article….

    The month of March was somewhat good for the far right throughout Europe in deed. I can only warn people to keep a close eye on these clear tendencies.

    This is not about stereoype comparison of Weimar and today, we live in a a different world, however, we need to be alert to what is happening in this new post Lisbon Europe.

    In France the National Front won 11% in regional elections, 20% ex Sarkozy voters contributed to this gain.

    In Italy Berlusconis right wing coalition succeeded
    again, no surprise here, but in Piedmont and Veneto, normally a traditional working class left wing voter strongpoint, The Northern League captured seats, Umberto Bossi is the brown leader of this fascist group.

    In the Netherleands, Geert Wilder another xenophobist and Anti Muslim populist and anti immigrant activist dominates the political landscape. The 9th of June will be interesting! His agenda is calling fro deporting Muslims, and he is known to get wide spread applause when he compares the Qur’an with Hitller’s Mein Kampf. His Freedon Party came second in the last Europen Elections.

    In Belgium Vlaam Belang has gained 50% support
    with Flemish Voters.

    The most striking tragedy happened this month in Hungary, where Gobar Vona leading Jobbik gained 16%, and literally coming from nowhere. Jobbik maintain the Hungarian Guard, dressed in 1940’s fascist outlook, their goal is to police Roma ‘ghettos’! They encourage violence against Roma publicly, and they openly display antisemitism. Jobbik won 15% of the last European vote.

    Now, of course, we have a bunch of historians and analysts quick to play down these results as protest votes only, but this is incorrect, as they form a pattern in Western Europe, where the far right is going from strength to strength.

    It is not a short term event that goes away with the next elections anymore. In 2002 Jean Yves Camus wrote some articles in Le Monde Diplomatique pointing to this new emerging fascism throughout Europe in it’s slick new face. Camus is a expert on European radical movements working at the Paris Institute of International and Strategic Relations.

    Far Right movements have to be taken serious and can not be dismissed or played down as protest voters anymore. This would be wrong.

    April 22, 2010, 10:15 am Log in to Reply
    • laughingbear says

      In Ireland, the events unfolding make me think of the abbreviation FF standing for Financial Fascism.

      April 22, 2010, 10:25 am Log in to Reply
    • Colin_in_exile says

      You are completely wrong about Geert Wilders. He has stated that “My allies are not Le Pen or Haider… We’ll never join up with the fascists and Mussolinis of Italy. I’m very afraid of being linked with the wrong rightist fascist groups,” saying instead his drive is issues such as freedom of expression and Dutch iconoclasm. He wants to prevent the islamification of his country. Are you suggesting he should stand idly by and watch muslims take over his country?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geert_Wilders

      He broadly agrees with Robert Spencer who runs the websitehttp://www.jihadwatch.org/

      April 22, 2010, 11:22 am Log in to Reply
      • s1lverbullet says

        Are you one of these people who think that Islam is evil??

        April 22, 2010, 11:26 am Log in to Reply
        • Colin_in_exile says

          Oh no, I love Islam, I love the way you can be murdered for changing your religion from Islam, or stoned to death for committing adultery, or told when and where you can eat one month a year.

          Are you one of these people who loves to see burka-clad women walking down the streets of Ireland? Is it your dream to become a dhimmi in your own country?

          April 22, 2010, 11:35 am Log in to Reply
          • liam says

            Jaysus Colin, where on earth is all this vitriol coming from?

            We have a caliphate here already, its called Fianna Fail.

            April 22, 2010, 5:05 pm
          • s1lverbullet says

            @ colin – To be honest I am against all religion, although you have to concede that it is Roman Catholicism that is the biggest murderer in history. How about over here where you could be put in an asylum for having a child out of wedlock, be put away for years as a child for skipping school, have your pelvis sawed open by ‘doctors’ to enable you to keep bearing children, sodomized by almost anyone you’d come in contact with – priests, swimming coaches, uncles. Oh yeah we have it so good here

            April 22, 2010, 7:05 pm
      • laughingbear says

        Colin,

        if you talk about the sociopathic Geert Wilder who was turned back in heathrow airport and refused entry to the UK when he tried to show his film that compares Qur’an with Hitler’s Mein Kampf, yes, then we talk about the same person.

        No, I do not think I got it all wrong here.

        April 22, 2010, 12:27 pm Log in to Reply
        • laughingbear says

          Geert Wilders in deed is the epitome of a new fascism flaring up in Europe. I guess it is useless to debate this person here, as we will not find agreement on this point Colin.

          My contribution was meant to highlight the dangers of these tendencies in context of the financial heist performed on the working class.

          April 22, 2010, 1:10 pm Log in to Reply
          • Colin_in_exile says

            This is not the correct forum to debate this topic so please desist from mentioning Geert Wilders.

            April 22, 2010, 2:36 pm
          • laughingbear says

            Currently he is on trial in a dutch court for continuous hate speeches and other offenses related, he might face 2 years in prison if convicted.

            April 22, 2010, 3:14 pm
    • s1lverbullet says

      @ Laughingbear – Although I have no religious beliefs, I can fully understand how antisemitism gathers momentum seeing as how all the major criminal financial institutions are run and owned by zionist zealots. What do you think?

      April 22, 2010, 11:24 am Log in to Reply
      • laughingbear says

        Hi Silverbullet,

        First, I reject attempts to treat the Holocaust as a political asset or political leverage.

        Israel is the military outpost of the US and as such it has to be understood in context of the Palestinian conflict. You refer to Zionists; It is them in deed who are partially responsible for the upsurge of global antisemitism. I differentiate between Judaism and Zionism of course.

        It is useful to remember the spanish inquisition (Isabella of Spain) to understand antisemitism in it’s complexity as a cultural meme that has transpired throughout centuries.

        In 1492, the same year Columbus raised funds for his explorations, the muslim Kingdom of Grenada was taken by force, in this year, all Jews who refused to convert to Christianity were expelled from Spain.

        The Pope honored Isabella and Ferdinand by giving them the title ‘The Catholic’ for their success in ‘purifying’ the faith.

        Linking the financial heist to the zionist movement is not entirely accurate, it serves the same purpose that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pursues when he spat his anti semitic saliva in the UN back in 2008 trying to make Jews responsible for the financial destruction.

        The increased antisemitism is linked to the growth of fascism throughout the world.

        April 22, 2010, 12:23 pm Log in to Reply
        • laughingbear says

          May be interesting to remember as well, when the black death wiped out 25 million people in europe, Jews were charged with having provoked the Plague by their unbelief and sinfulness.

          It has been a pattern throughout history, probably the longest existing meme of all.

          April 22, 2010, 1:31 pm Log in to Reply
        • Colin_in_exile says

          Southern Spain was a re-conquest by the native Spanish Christians, reversing an 8th century violent invasion by muslims.

          Again, this is not the forum to be discussing such material so please desist from it.

          April 22, 2010, 2:41 pm Log in to Reply
          • laughingbear says

            You know, I explained why I put the new european wide fascism into the context of this financial heist, and Silverbullet asked me a question to which I responded.

            So yes, this is the place to put things into context, as it is an uncensored blog, secondly, it is not a forum.

            This is the second time you ask me to desist from posting such material. I suggest you don’t read it then, instead of asking me to not post my opinion, which covers a wee bit more ground than Ireland alone.

            April 22, 2010, 3:03 pm
          • Colin_in_exile says

            Uncensored, yes I agree, so yes you are free to post what you like, but I don’t know how long you are here reading and posting, so just to let you know, we’ve been here before and DMcW and mediator agree that we SHOULD keep away from religion. I just wanted to set the record straight about a political figure you attacked and wanted people to see an unbiased profile about him on wikipedia.

            You don’t speak for all working classes. Working classes coulc have voted for communism in western democracies, but as of yet, no communist government has been voted into power. Maybe you should consider that.

            April 22, 2010, 3:24 pm
          • laughingbear says

            Colin,

            Communism? You are the first in this thread who brings up this ideology. Fwiw, I am not affiliated with any political party or ideology, never was and never will be. So why should I consider communism not to be voted into power?

            I am aware about the emerging fascism since long, and yes, I do not speak on behalf of anyone but myself Colin.

            However, it is typical class resentment that is exercised through the ways politicians representing special interests and enabling bank bailed outs with the money of working class people.

            Certainly, I do not have an intentions to discuss religion here, and I fail to see where I would have started a discussion on Religion to start with.

            As for Mr. Wilders, I would not think that your link is giving an unbiased description. Wilders proposed to establish 1,000 euros taxes per annum for wearing a headscarf. Such is his populist mindset as a fearmongerer exploiting the islamophobic trends in a society that faces economical downturn.

            From a psychological point of view, his obsessive compulsiveness is more than evident, a control freak with supremacist fantasies.

            I lived in the Netherlands long enough to know a little bit about the suppressed views that he brings to the surface with his rhetoric.

            Such are the dangers of the new breed of fascists, hiding behind freedom of speech and liberalism.

            April 22, 2010, 5:53 pm
        • s1lverbullet says

          excellent as usual. I too see the huge difference between Judaism and Zionism. I detest everything that Israel stands for but have no ill feeling against Jews as a people. I wonder if you have ever taken a look at “The Protocols of The Learned Elders of Zion” forged/real documents and if you find iocincidental to recent events?

          April 22, 2010, 6:53 pm Log in to Reply
          • laughingbear says

            Yes this is interesting.

            I was born in Cologne and through my family, my mother was secretary to a very high ranking church representative, as well as my my own interests and education I was confronted very early with genocides and have a life lasting interest in these matters, which to a degree explains my interest in native american culture as well.

            I came across Goedsche and his sickening copycat writings early in my life in that respect. He was a spy for the Prussian secret service, a low ranking postal worker with strong antisemitic views. He lost his work when he forged evidence concerning the
            prosecution of a Democrat Benedict Waldeck.

            Goedsche used MauriceJoly’s ‘Dialogues in Hell Between Machiavelli and Montesquieu’ for his antisemitic Jabber which he called Biarritz, later translated into russian as ‘The Rabbi’s Speech’ and then by the russian Okhrana (think of it as a secret service) in Paris renamed to ‘Protocols of the Elders of Zion’. They became part of their well layed out Okrhana PR and the progrom in Odessa 1905.

            His writings had a severe impact on the Russian liberal reform movement, in fact it gave a weakened Zar the means to crush the movement.

            In civil war after the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, the reactionary white armies used it again to justify their slaughter of thousands of jews.

            Around 1920, the writings were exposed as a plagiat.

            It is a good example how a meme works and what deliberately spread disinformation can result in.

            If we think about our societies today and the way information is forged, pictures manipulated, truth bend backwards to suit a purpose, and consider the impact of information technology at our disposal, it has become a difficult task for the average citizen to stay ahead of smoke screens and deliberate disinformation spread to maintain control.

            There are many examples of how this works and in deed how it is used on purpose to manipulate masses.

            Interesting context, eight years after the protocols were exposed in an article by Philip Grave in the London Times and other publications, Ortega y Gasset published ‘The Revolt of the masses’ sketching an european that still is around these days, very much so.

            I think we owe it to ourselves to be alert to the way media works and how the numerous manipulations of citizens opinions are performed. Statements like ‘We truned the corner’ are easy to see through, others are less easy to dissect, but practice helps.

            Although the protocols were exposed, denial and the myth surrounding them continued to make an impact and cause more suffering. The continued to be used, and Henry Ford sponsored them until 1927 in the US. The also were instrumental to the Nazi’s, used as justification for their genocide.

            To date you still will find people who use them with their antisemitic poisoned brains, painting pictures of Jews using the blood of christian children for their rituals.

            I am concerned about the generation of people who were educated in the midst of new technologies already fully implemented, and I intend to think, they lack a certain intellectual distance, and they are certainly not educated enough to dissect informations to dig out the the true character and intention behind it, which has become a increasingly difficult task for everyone.

            April 22, 2010, 8:45 pm
          • laughingbear says

            P.S.
            Populists like Wilders use the very same methodologies that are used since centuries.

            A friend here from this forum mentioned to me this evening in a call what a difficulty subject fascism would be to touch here.

            I know this, but I also think this is not the time for silence, on the contrary, we have to try to dig out the truth of the events infolding in the world, and this new breed fascism is the biggest danger to our children and future generations.

            If someone would have told me when i was a young man, that i would have to see Nazis marching in Berlin under Police protection in the 80s, I would have laughed out loud. But we live in a world where Scientology is listed as a church in the US, and we have to warn our children on these dangers, and eventually contribute a little but to stop them in their ways, eventually.

            April 22, 2010, 9:05 pm
          • laughingbear says

            I meant this one, not the foot notes only. LOL

            http://emperors-clothes.com/antisem/graves-text.htm

            April 22, 2010, 9:52 pm
          • laughingbear says

            You know what picture just came to my mind?

            During the G.W. Bush era the color coded terrorist thread levels that became a constant feature on US Television.

            After WWII the UdSSR and USA went into the cold war period. I remember vividly the day the wall in Berlin was demolished, I was in Berlin on this day.

            The Mc Carthy communist hunt was just one aspect of the long lasting enemy picture the american public was indoctrinated with.

            This enemy was suddenly gone and needed a substitute, muslims filled that gap.

            Ever since, this meme spread throughout the world in a contagious manner causing right wing populists to claim moderate muslims would not exist.

            The islamisation of Europe is just a matter of time and demographics, nothing else.

            But this new global enemy has become a meme of it’s own.

            During the Iran Contra crisis, the US funded every militant splinter groups they could get their hands on with intelligence, weapons and money. This was going to bite them in the arse later big times.

            Hussein was educated and supported, in fact he was put in place by the US in the first place. The US middle east policies were always motivated to have control on recourses, and the resulting Palestinian conflict was sponsored by US interests.

            This Islamic world became the UdSSR substitute, Rumsfeld and company the pendant to McCarthy, and it spread like a contagion as well. It is deliberately used in an attempt to maintain dollar supremacy.

            Today we are indoctrinated with muslims being the children eating communists of late.

            I live in Donegal, I have Hindus, Muslims, Christians and Atheists as Neighbors, thanks God no Scientologists, Italiens, Germans, Irish, Pakistani, British, Canadian and so on.

            The new doctrine is that all muslims are on a trip to kill all christians and have to be send back to where they came from to protect our way of life, where the reality is that Europe will be Islamic in a very short amount of time.

            How astonishingly easy it is to spread this hate around and offer the new global enemy to the mob to feast on.

            April 22, 2010, 10:50 pm
    • Invalid username says

      Pls spare us from the anti-sem meme – it’s so tiresome. Besides, Zionists and all other fascists are no better than the Nazis who helped spawn their own, present-day bugbear.

      The real meme today is anti-democrat.

      April 25, 2010, 9:26 pm Log in to Reply
  • Art1980 says

    News in – apparently in papers today a drop in the price on affordable housing in Spencer Dock, under 200k for two bed and no claw back restrictions. Sounds like marketing boys are back with sells pitch.

    April 22, 2010, 10:58 am Log in to Reply
    • s1lverbullet says

      oh quick, buy buy buy. You’d be a fool not to get on the property ladder at this time….ha ha ha ha ha ha. I bet there are loads of fools thinking this at the mo

      April 22, 2010, 11:19 am Log in to Reply
  • cbweb says

    “Negotiations with the IMF, the EU Commission and the European Central Bank on a loan from the proposed rescue fund are due to start today.

    Greek finance minister George Papaconstantinou said that if his country did activate the rescue package of up to €30bn from its eurozone partners, the loans would start arriving within one to three weeks.”

    Seems to me there’s a tipping point being approached this week. On the one hand, SEC (Securities Exchange Committee) investigation into Goldman Sachshttp://bit.ly/ay3Wrx is showing up DIRT. There’s mounting opposition in American Senate to the proposals for new regulatory powers in the US. Obama is going to address this today. Its between a rock and a hard place though, the more they try to unwind the paper trail derivative time bombs, the more they scare the markets?

    What they maybe need is a system of licensing for new financial products that will stress test each one with similar rigour to FDA regulations for new drug patents!

    While Greece gets ready to grab European bailout money thereby more rock and hard place stuff showing Greek weakness, Prof Schachtscneider constitutional challenge to Greek bailout is going ahead, he wants to see the euro broke up and countries like ours ejected!

    http://bit.ly/cthZHy

    According to Schachtscneider ‘no bailout clause’ policy needs to be reaffirmed and who could disagree with him?

    On a brighter note Dermot Mooney of Light Entertainment RTE was motivated yesterday to do a straw pole of listeners to see if they supported Lenin’s propaganda of the previous day that every day that passed showed greater growing support for NAMA. Result of straw pole phone in, 86% disagreed with Lenin!

    The Irish public are a lot wiser than some people give them credit for!

    Sean Fleming FF shows opposition to Anglo bailout
    http://bit.ly/caB5Kb

    Do you get the feeling the ‘centre cannot hold’

    “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;”(Yeats)

    http://bit.ly/5ydwfX

    Time to leave the euro, devalue, dump Anglo, renegotiate with our FF bondolders about that noose they slipped around our neck, default if we can’t negotiate. Hit bottom, bounce back with a new, fresh start and a new currency.

    Most of all, dump the Clown Gang of financial decentralisers who’ve sucked the life out of this place.

    As a going away present electronic voting machines to the moráns for quick disposal in the Bog of Allen. This be can be a sign of the beginning of our new smart economy! Not Clown Smart, as Jay Z would say, ‘really, really smart’ lol

    Obama has a tough speech today to calm the fears of the markets and support the new regulator powers/policies/SEC investigations/probes about which I hope to learn more.

    Meanwhile, I’m guessing its time to Fasten your seat belts, folks:)

    April 22, 2010, 11:01 am Log in to Reply
    • cbweb says

      are new comments noew being moderated?

      April 22, 2010, 11:19 am Log in to Reply
      • laughingbear says

        Hi Colm,

        not that I would know of, why do you ask?

        April 22, 2010, 6:10 pm Log in to Reply
        • cbweb says

          got “Your comment is awaiting moderation” message.

          April 22, 2010, 6:24 pm Log in to Reply
          • laughingbear says

            Well, that is astonishing, I did not get such message today, but in case this should become a new standard, I would stop contributing on this site.

            April 22, 2010, 6:40 pm
          • Garry says

            I guess you pasted in 2 or more links in the comment

            if you put in a few links, it will be regarded as spam ….

            Put in just one link and you should be fine.

            April 22, 2010, 9:06 pm
      • webmaster says

        Hi cbweb

        There has been no change to the comment moderation system. If you posted more than one link it may be regarded as spam and need to be approved before it appears online. This has always been the case.

        Hope that helps.

        April 23, 2010, 12:47 pm Log in to Reply
  • laughingbear says

    WORLDBANK opens data pool

    The World Bank Group said today it will offer free access to more than 2,000 financial, business, health, economic and human development statistics that had mostly been available only to paying subscribers.

    http://data.worldbank.org/

    April 22, 2010, 11:10 am Log in to Reply
  • G says

    David McWilliams,

    This is especially for you.

    Just to say, I might not agree with everything you say, but I thank you for the site and for pushing the envelope and making your presence felt!

    I hope you enjoy it……… 🙂
    http://en.tackfilm.se/?id=1271935224578RA81

    ~ G.

    April 22, 2010, 12:23 pm Log in to Reply
  • Furrylugs says

    Live news from Lorcan RK;

    Greece 5yr CDS @ 562.4bps, higher than Ukraine – 542.6bps

    And;
    BOI and AIB taking a battering again after we wuz found out cooking the books – Deficit of 14.6%

    Rocky, people, Rocky.

    April 22, 2010, 12:25 pm Log in to Reply
      • Furrylugs says

        Here’s a new word for a 4bn bailout;
        “Technical Reclassification”

        http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0422/breaking28.html

        They’re being caught out left, right and centre but still can’t admit it.

        April 22, 2010, 12:31 pm Log in to Reply
        • Garry says

          “Ireland records biggest state deficit in euro zone last year”

          Great to see this is now being publicly confirmed. I wonder will it be buried in the newspapers tomorrow or will it get a headline.

          Despite all the efforts to hide it, the fraudsters are being exposed.

          This pushes Ireland closer to government employees, various grants, pensions and welfare not getting paid. Bring it on!

          I want to see Lenny, Cowen & co in power when the checks bounce and the shit really hits the fan.

          April 22, 2010, 2:03 pm Log in to Reply
          • 20yearsagrowin says

            Current account deficit highest in Europe.
            Debt to GDP ratio heading in the same direction ( not even counting the cost of NAMA.)
            House price affordibility worst in Europe
            Level of house ownership highest in Europe
            At least our unemployment is not that bad….or is it???
            Spain 45 Million population with 4,3 million unemployed quotes a 19% rate.
            Ireland with 4.5 million population and 440,000 unemployed quotes a rate of 12%…..

            Someone playing with the numbers again?

            Seems to me we are hitting all the wrong high notes lately….

            April 22, 2010, 2:17 pm
          • Dilly says

            It will be interesting to watch Lenny & Clowen convince workers to take IOU’s as payment. A quote from the movie Dumb & Dumber:

            “That’s as good as money, sir. Those are I.O.U.’s. “

            April 22, 2010, 3:07 pm
          • BigJim says

            @20yearsagrowin What are we going to do about it ?

            April 23, 2010, 12:41 pm
  • Art1980 says

    To 20yearsagrowin

    The unemployment rates are calculated on the workforce not the population.

    April 22, 2010, 3:18 pm Log in to Reply
    • 20yearsagrowin says

      Thanks Art. No arguement from me on that one. However, bottom line is that we support the same % of our overall population on the dole as Spain…so are we really any better off?

      April 22, 2010, 3:28 pm Log in to Reply
      • cbweb says

        Say workforce is 200,000 and 20% of workforce unemployed, that means we have 40,000 unemployed.

        But now, say 100,000 up stakes and leave.

        Then with the same 40,000 still remaining unemployed this means we have the unemployment rate doubling to 40%.

        To be accurate, we need up-to-date accurate figures on our workforce that takes emigration into account.

        So, can we be sure of data describing people leaving the workforce and emigrating.

        And can we be sure that this is data is being reflected accurately in unemployment statistics in a timely way?

        April 22, 2010, 3:56 pm Log in to Reply
        • 20yearsagrowin says

          I read somewhere that we have 1.8 Million people working at the moment. We also have 440,000 on the dole, approx.

          So we have a workforce of 2.25 million more or less?

          12% of 2.25 milion is roughly 270,000.

          440,000 is 19.5% of 2.25 million

          So our unemployment is currently 19.5% or 12% or 10%?

          I know I am over simplifying this or simply do not understand it, but I dont see how fudged numbers help at all here. I also do not see how the % numbers add up.

          All I see is lots of scope to bob and weave for the govt.

          April 22, 2010, 4:12 pm Log in to Reply
          • cbweb says

            @20yearsagrowin says

            Using your MAth I’d go for the 20%, but I’d make an ‘emigration index’ adjustment, assume the 440,000 on the dole, approx is fixed and easily verified.

            Assume however 100,000 have left the country, then workforce is adjusted to 2.15 million more or less, then it goes up to 20.47%.

            My guess is a rounded 20% and rising!

            April 22, 2010, 5:15 pm
          • MK1 says

            The unemployment rate is not related to the number of people on the Live Register, its related to the QNHS survey.

            See this:http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lreg.pdf

            So, Live Register for Mar 2010 433,000
            QNHS unemployed 282,000 (13.4%)

            MK1

            April 22, 2010, 5:39 pm
          • cbweb says

            @MK1

            thkx for good link, from which….

            “The Standardised Unemployment Rate (SUR) series in Table 3 is based on the estimated number
            of persons unemployed expressed as a percentage of the total economically active population (i.e.
            the Labour Force), using internationally comparable definitions of employment and unemployment, as recommended by the International Labour Office. Benchmark estimates of the SUR for
            February, May, August and November of each year are calculated using seasonally adjusted data
            from the Quarterly National Household Survey. The monthly trend in the seasonally adjusted
            Live Register is then used to estimate the monthly SUR between successive surveys.”

            Fair enough, QNHS method should pick up those not on the Live register because they’re self employed, so fair enough, its best on international best practice…..so maybe 13.5%

            How many though in jobs at risk, zombie hotels held open by the banks, businesses on the verge of closure in debt to the banks?

            April 22, 2010, 6:09 pm
  • wills says

    BigJim.

    “We all” does not work for me in relation to ‘fingers in the till’.

    My fingers are under bar and soap.

    April 22, 2010, 3:55 pm Log in to Reply
    • cbweb says

      Agree Wills, my fingers are clean as well. We need more posts from yu:)

      This ‘we are all in it together crap’ is part of the propaganda, the distributive blame game, the contagion spread around by FF bankers/politicos/ and their ‘finger in the greasy till’, flood plane, financial wrecking, paper bag planning, Tullamore wrecking ball, moronic, masters of bankocracy cronies…..

      I heard Clowen refer to himself as Taoiseach the other day, sound of desparation creeping in methinks!

      April 22, 2010, 4:11 pm Log in to Reply
      • wills says

        cbweb.

        Appreciate that. These crony shysters ‘wet’ themselves when they’ve secured ‘implied consent’ from the victim swinging the spade on their ’slave plantation’.

        It helps ‘em sleep at night and ger up in the morn and go to their jailor master role for more swag bag fill up.

        April 22, 2010, 8:43 pm Log in to Reply
      • BigJim says

        Thankfully, cbweb, your negativity is soo all-consuming that it is impossible to take your comments with anything other than a pinch of salt !

        As a new contributor, I’m totally flummoxed by the absence of constructive comment; regardless of who did what in the past, and to whom, what’s anyone going to do in the future to ensure that we sort ourselves out ?

        April 23, 2010, 12:45 pm Log in to Reply
    • BigJim says

      Never visited the black economy, Wills ?

      NEVER ?

      April 23, 2010, 12:41 pm Log in to Reply
  • mitchellob says

    Hi David,
    I have a question for you to consider along side your article published on the 21st April 2010. While looking at the graph showing house prices and wages from 1991, you did not mention interest rates. The majority of the price increases in housing started when we started having eurozone interest rates available to us. Afford-ability is a real contributor to house prices.
    If I am renting a house for €800 per month for 2 or 3 years and have built up a record of being able to afford this amount comfortably and interest rates are at lets say 7%, I can afford x amount of a mortgage. If interest com down to an average of 3% for a 6 or 7 year period, then I can afford to pay a multiple of x for the same house.
    The majority of people looking to buy a home (not an investment property) will come up with a number they can afford to pay monthly, and ask the mortgage broker how much money they can borrow for this amount.
    Surely interest rates & afford-ability play a big factor in the graph you show in your article.
    Am I wrong.
    Thanks & keep up the good work,
    Mitch.

    April 22, 2010, 4:21 pm Log in to Reply
    • paulmcd says

      At the age of 30, In 1981, when a temporary peak occurred in the property market, I bought my first house in Dundalk, costing 22,000 punts, with the help of a 25-year mortgage which was an extension beyond the previous max of 20 years. (At this time, it was normal to obtain a mortgage from a building society ONLY.) I was also allowed to borrow 90% – and not the normal 80% – of the value of the property by the EBS as I was a first-time buyer who was destined to receive a 1,000 punts grant and 3,000 punts in subsidies over the following couple of years. The latter measure had just been introduced to try to impart additional stimulus to a slowing property market. (The max mortage possible was 2.5 TIMES income.) With hindsight I can see that the 4,000 punts in stimulus was really to allow for a wider margin for builders/developers. I sold this 3-bed semi for a price equivalent to 2 times my gross income in 04/05, but prices of larger, more prestigious homes had been rising even more rapidly than basic semi’s.

      In Dundalk, property prices never recovered to the 1981 levels until the early 90s.

      Things started to get out of hand when we entered the Euro zone in the early noughties. And, yes, the CENTRAL BANK lost the power to set interest rates. However, the CENTRAL BANK, as far as I understand, could have controlled the situation by gradually lowering the max no of years for a mortgage as interest rates were reduced, and also lowering the the multiple of one’s earnings which could be used when calculating a mortgagee’s entitlement.

      It was the CENTRAL BANK which allowed the situation to evolve where, in my case, I was had to upgrade to a detached 4-bed house purchased at an outrageous 5 times my gross income, €350,000, also during 04/05. The market was already overheating and I reckoned that I was buying at the PEAK just like I had done in 1981.

      Astonishingly, the average house price was allowed to rise to a record 10 times national average earnings in 06/07, with up to 100% – nay, even higher – mortgages being granted. The CENTRAL BANK also allowed the max period to be extended from 25 years to 40 years WITH UP TO 4 TIMES GROSS INCOME being the allowable amount.

      We were in a new era when banks as well as building societies were enabled to grant mortgages. I think it was the blind eye of the CENTRAL BANK alone, which allowed things to get so much out of hand.

      If the CENTRAL BANK had kept a lid on prices as outlined above then we would still have a sustainable level of development in the building industry.

      The Irish Republic has the lowest population density of any state in the European Union. It is inexcusable that house prices in Ireland today are still at 2 times the level of those in the United States, where you actually get more house for your given number of bedrooms home. This is so despite the fact that the phenomenon of the working couple is established there for even longer than in Ireland, and despite the fact also that Americans have a higher after-tax disposable incomes with which to make house purchases.

      SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE TO ANALYSE WHY AND DRAW CONCLUSIONS FOR THE IRISH PROPERTY MARKET.

    • @2 I reckon the price of rent and the price of property is tightly controlled and rigged rigged rigged in order to keep the crony bankocracy in power.

      It s through the lambasting of property in which the controllers discover their power to be in control and positioned to cream the econ system.

      Coldblow s posting of crotty s writings on this are excellent and incredibly informative on the back story to property ownership been the masters jail in which some of us are imprisoned.

      This is the essence of the narrative on which David is stripping away week after week.

      The ownership of property and the rent seeking perversity it unleashes over the free market system and the anarchy and misery that unfolds.

      Extortionate rents keeps the serfs gnashing of teeth in perpetuity. Run’s them into the banks begging for mortgages and security from the looper landlords whom at any moment may slap on higher rent cos he woke up in a bad mood cos the wife nagging em for a holiday.

      This is wacko and it is the structure of all culture and society across the so called civilized world.

      We are all living in a world which is a plutocratic slave plantation and keeping the majority of people in a hamsters wheel chasing after paper money to pay for shelter over their head while the other section of the people who benefit from the rent seeking system ponder on the newest next 4 * 4 coming out on the market to pick the shopping up in.

      April 22, 2010, 9:02 pm Log in to Reply
      • s1lverbullet says

        Exactly Wills. Rents were forced so high for the last 10 years that it was costing the same as a mortgage. This was no coincidence! What this idiotic politicians didnt realise is that if they started a culture of social renting they could have a steady guaranteed income stream. Lets just say 750000 houses @ 50 quid a week would give around 2 billion a year every year…..idiots

        April 22, 2010, 9:37 pm Log in to Reply
        • wills says

          Silverbullet.

          The crux of it is the ‘insiders’ know this. They do not want people living in their own home and NOT paying rent or a mortgage.

          Its a rent seeking jailor rigged market society we are in and must un pick and free.

          April 22, 2010, 10:06 pm Log in to Reply
          • G says

            Would agree with 1000% – I am a bit demoralised that I don’t have my own place, thought life would work out differently, simple can’t afford it on my salary which is below the average industrial wage. I find myself ‘counting my blessings’ which confirms things are really bad. Don’t know what to do – stay or go?

            Bourgeois moan over.

            Government OUT,OUT OUT!

            April 24, 2010, 1:13 pm Log in to Reply
    • stiofanc02 says

      Anyone notice that we have just surpassed Greeces GDP to deficit ratio? Of course it is “only a technicality” God forbid we get bogged down with technicalities. David hits another one out of the park!

      April 22, 2010, 10:14 pm Log in to Reply
      • s1lverbullet says

        Ireland is in a worse position than Greece, it’s just that we can hide it better

        April 23, 2010, 12:15 am Log in to Reply
        • Deco says

          There is a massive well spring of ability and talent in the media, the political establisment and the business community in Ireland, when it comes to talking up a bad situation.

          If you look back to the mid 1990s, we practically talked ourselves into paying ridiculous prices for shoeboxes. And we congratulated ourselves on the ‘acheivement’ and drew the conclusion that it meant that we were all very rich. Subprime minds.

          April 23, 2010, 7:26 am Log in to Reply
    • Deco says

      In Ireland, today, it seems that it has become the job of government to create jobs. Mostly this is done via quangos. And mostly it is done by redeploying borrowed money, or money that is available because the citizens are being ripped off by oligopolistic price setting arrangements.

      Eirgrid does not have a competitor. And it is state owned. It is probably a great place to work. In fact it is just as great if you don’t work, and are just on the payroll.

      Like Whine’s electric cars and the ESB, and the jobs that will be created by that adventure, we have another misadventure here.

      No meention made about Ireland having the most expensive electricity in Europe, after Finland. No mention either of how to deal with days when the wind is not blowing. Like the past three weeks. This from the GP which talks out it’s arse repeatedly about proper planning, as if they alone understand the concept and thereby are to be facilitated in planning everything for the rest of us.

      http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0422/eirgrid.html

      I think we are on a trajectory to become worse than Iceland. Lots of environmentally freindly options, and no money to pay for anything. But Ireland is the I in STUPID not Iceland. Because the Icelanders at least have the good sense to know what is and what is not financially viable…

      April 23, 2010, 7:16 am Log in to Reply
    • Deco says

      It looks like Ireland has acheived another feat of international significance…
      http://www.rte.ie/business/2010/0422/budget.html

      Another day to feel proud about the new Modern Ireland (with active ingedieints and Reduced Sugar Content) that we are all instructed to beleive in by the establishment. Yes, because we are on the map, we should feel proud.

      April 23, 2010, 7:22 am Log in to Reply
    • Deco says

      The Belgian government has fallen. Another election in brewing a country that will be asked to contribute to my the bailing out of the Greek state, which is something that the Greeks themselves will not bailout.

      I think we can expect the political parties to be more responsive to citizens who are concerned about throwing money at profligate politicians other than those that they do not elect themselves.

      April 23, 2010, 7:34 am Log in to Reply
    • tony_murphy says

      A good article in the Independent from Martina Devlin

      old sticky fingers

      especially like the cartoon of one of our financial terrorists and a white elephant

      http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/martina-devlin/martina-devlin-cowen-saw-no-evil-in-stickyfingered-society-2147137.html

      April 23, 2010, 8:23 am Log in to Reply
      • Deco says

        I find the approach of the Sanctimonious Eamon Whine hypocritical to sat the least. This is a member of a party who are using their role in government to install their own failed councillors, and lazy activists who cannot make it in the real economy, into state salaried doss jobs in various quangos.

        And then have looked after his own supporters, and robbing the public in the process, Whine starts to tell us what a great job he is doing by bringing bankers too account.

        The GP and the Bankers should both be collected up and put to work on a chain gang cleaning up rubbish from ghost estates.

        April 23, 2010, 12:47 pm Log in to Reply
    • laughingbear says

      Apart form his ‘WE TURNED THE CORNER’ still echoing pretty loud in my ears, someone at Dr. Gurdgiev’s blog, Patrick1978, summarised in a neat form Uncle Lenihan’s fairy tales:

      Quote:
      This isn’t the first time the Department of Finance has misled the Irish people.

      1.”The bank guarantee is the cheapest bailout in Europe.”

      2.”We wont nationalise Anglo Irish Bank”

      3.” I never read the detailed report on Anglo Irish bank”

      4. “It would cost more to wind down Anglo than leave it as a going concern”

      5. ” The IMF has agreed with me and Alan Ahearne that NAMA will get credit flowing into the economy”

      6.” I can guarantee the Irish taxpayer that I as Minister for Finance will appoint an outsider to AIB bank and BOI bank.

      7.” NAMA discounts will an average of 30%, on the same day bank shares rise 25% after these FACTS

      8. SUPER TUESDAY— “No more time for the banks to raise capital”— gives the banks an extra 9 months.

      9.” I will impose a bank levy on future bank profits to cover NAMA losses— UTURN on the taxpayer once again”.
      ENDQUOTE

      April 23, 2010, 9:30 am Log in to Reply
      • Deco says

        It would be comical if he were Minister for Finance of another country altogether.

        Let’s not forget the numer of times “and this is not a uniquely Irish problem”. YEs that is correct. Gordon Brown of GB, Berlosconi of Italy and Zapatero of Spain have all been making STUPID forecasts regarding their economic situation in their respective countries.

        April 23, 2010, 12:49 pm Log in to Reply
        • Furrylugs says

          Comical, Yes, Deco.
          Comical Lenny.
          Maybe everyone should post him a shoe??
          I’m all out of protest ideas.

          April 23, 2010, 2:55 pm Log in to Reply
    • Deco says

      Your country, your call. Another effort to press the national pride button and generate a ton of BS. And that is exactly what some of the ideas are.

      http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0423/1224268953371.html

      And now the big question – who is paying for it all.
      Answer : the PAYE taxpayer. (same entity that pays for all other pointless escapades).

      My ideas – get rid of all these useless initiatives that create more noise than results, get rid of the stupid pride concept, downsize the state, get rid of most of the quangos, reduce the taxes that are weakening our cost competitiveness, and cut out all these schemes that reward people for amount to “something for nothing”.

      April 23, 2010, 12:56 pm Log in to Reply
    • cbweb says

      Yeah traitorous Cowen and his unconscionable alliance with banksters neatly summed up by D’s coining of the term ‘bankocracy’ that apparently has supplanted our democracy.

      You do assume the State has a mandate to protect its citizens.

      Only mitigation of the term ‘traitor’ for Clowen is the term implies informed conscious decision making.

      But we have from Clowen dullard incompetence and compost mentis leading to inability to act in compos mentis.

      Add in arrogance and a Dept of Finance out of its depth and a corrupt regulatory system plus a litany of corruption of our banking system, d’ye see where its going here.

      OT heard Varadkar and Hanafin on Morning Ireland on the banks with Hanafin, without rebuttal from Varadkar, make the point reason to save Anglo was its systemic importance and fear of a knock on effect.

      Yeah, systemic importance to wind down Anglo to solve our meltdown and use its depositor remains to bolster the other banks.

      Government for exploding budget deficits and national debt volcanos, Lenin with the support of Clowen has pumped 4€bn into Anglo black hole pushing this economy top of the European league for fiscal irresponsibility and waste.http://bit.ly/bTkmSX

      Billions of borrowed money is being spent on banksters, fraudulent banks, and attempted revival of an even more damaging property bubble.

      Markets are punishing us for wastefully spending this money. Each week that goes by taxpayers are put on the hook for even more interest payments to bondholders by this ‘pretend’ government, these bondholder reparations will be paid by generations of Irish people to come.

      OT on moderated comments, I’ve no problem. People have a right to their good name as people have a right to
      uncensored truth. Respect for posters and deserved unflinching, no holds barred, unflinching criticism when deserved and all that…

      April 23, 2010, 12:59 pm Log in to Reply
    • Deco says

      Eh….The Greeks have decided that bailing out the country is a job that is somebody else’s responsibility.

      This will feed directly into the general election in the Netherlands. Which will feed into the crisis in Belgium and the upcoming election there. And also the election in a neighbouring German region.

      And now…..the word CONTAGION is getting suddenly closer….

      April 23, 2010, 1:01 pm Log in to Reply
    • Furrylugs says

      Anyone see this in todays Indo?

      “As an Irishman living in France for the last 10 years I can confidently report that house prices in Ireland are undervalued right now.

      In Ireland you can buy three- and four-bedroom houses for around €130,000.

      In France a similar house in a reasonable area would be at least double, if not treble that price.

      So David McWilliams’ rhetorical babbling about still-overpriced houses is narrow minded and simply blind. Take a look at the rest of Europe and compare the numbers.

      There is no house available in France that a family could live in close to any town or city for less than €250,000.
      Change your story, Mr McWilliams.
      Joe Duigan
      Peymeinade, France
      (c)Irish Independent””

      Obviously a member of the 3rd French Brigade (FF Battalion) of the IAVI.

      April 23, 2010, 4:06 pm Log in to Reply
      • liam says

        OK, I can personally attest to the fact that you can buy a home in most parts of Japan and certainly within easy commuting distance of central Tokyo for 250k. I hear that in many parts of the US you could buy two.

        April 23, 2010, 5:04 pm Log in to Reply
      • Colin_in_exile says

        Newsflash – Exile based in France calls the bottom of property market in Ireland!

        Perhaps Mr Duigan will put on the green jersey and buy property in Ireland as an investment? I’m sure there are plenty of owners of property in Ireland who will gladly sell their unsellable properties to him.

        April 23, 2010, 5:09 pm Log in to Reply
      • cbweb says

        @ 19 Furrylugs,

        Ah but we live in Namaland, property oversupply, bubble country, on the brink of financial collapse weighed down with external debt and in sore need of a new fiscal policy, new government, financial rescue. Perhaps he’d like to come over and purchase some, his children can help pay some of our debt!

        April 23, 2010, 5:13 pm Log in to Reply
      • Bamboo says

        Pure Nonsense!!
        This is a makey upppy letter by Indo. That is how media people work, they put anything at all on paper top get attention.

        April 23, 2010, 10:18 pm Log in to Reply
        • Furrylugs says

          But needed airing Bamboo. It was well constructed by the politburo and there are a lot of people who have been conditioned to think of David Mc as being a “Doom & Gloom” merchant.
          Denial Merchants.

          I’ve had a right result today.
          A good friend wanted to buy a house 6 months ago @ 200.000k. Really nice finished place in it’s own grounds.
          She listened to me on foot of the craic here and waited.
          It’s just dropped to 160,000k or 20%.
          It’s a fabulous little place and if you build in emotional value(she loves it for family connections), given that the vendor will drop another 10k for pure Irish haggling, then we are there or there abouts where David is saying. Not truly economic but you have to build in the heart too because we’re all human.
          So, if she’s clever, this woman will get the house of her dreams for 2000 prices. And before ye all caveat about interest rate rises, I’ve talked to her about that and mitigation is in place.
          Many thanks David McWilliams and Deco, LorcanRK, MK1, Tim, John A, The Moon Wobble and all the rest of ye.
          One single happy woman will benefit from all these chats over the last two years.
          Job done and well done.
          F

          April 23, 2010, 11:19 pm Log in to Reply
    • tony_murphy says

      on twitter today from cooper_m

      At dub airport just saw derek quinlan and family. He owes over €600 million to Nama – us – but he’s checking the lot into business class.

      April 23, 2010, 4:59 pm Log in to Reply
      • Bamboo says

        FYI: In Holland, if you owe the state any money (tax, water charges, fines, etc) you have to pay what you owe first before you leave the country through customs if they check your passport -or they get you on your way back.
        Deco, your idea of confiscating passports is the best idea I’ve heard since joining this blog.

        April 23, 2010, 10:45 pm Log in to Reply
      • G says

        Irish Abramovich, live abroad, harder to get you home!

        April 24, 2010, 1:46 pm Log in to Reply
    • Art1980 says

      to Furrylungs

      Was that a letter to the editor in the Indo. What is this fool talking about 3 – 4 bedroom houses in Ireland for 130k. I must see that to believe it on my way home.

      April 23, 2010, 5:04 pm Log in to Reply
    • John ALLEN says

      There are no average houses near a large town anywhere in France if there were they would be villas .Apartments are not houses and on average for an average large town the price is based on a sq meter of say €2,000 . Of course this rises and falls depending on the city .The average size for a good apartment is 100sq m .Thus the cost in full would amount to €200,000 .In France there are a lot of very efficient public services and facilities and the best transport and health services need I say more. David is correct in context in what he says .

      April 23, 2010, 5:21 pm Log in to Reply
      • Furrylugs says

        The poor man had a Wobble John.
        Did you get home ok?
        I’m going up your way next week. We might have a coffee?
        F

        April 23, 2010, 11:22 pm Log in to Reply
        • John ALLEN says

          I arrived in Cork thursday midnight and drove home immediately.
          I think good coffee is important for any ‘discussions and thinking’ .I might suggest The Strand Hotel on banks of river Shannon and city centered .You can text me on 0876630354. I will find it hard to adjust back to office work this week . Drive slowley wherever you are until 29th .

          April 24, 2010, 11:18 am Log in to Reply
          • Furrylugs says

            Sound John. I’m dropping my Mum to Farranfore on Tuesday so, circumstances prevailing, I’ll shoot up for a skinny latte. Or we might sneak a wee dram.

            April 24, 2010, 12:00 pm Log in to Reply
    • DigitalOrchard says

      Thanks for that David. It really is just a logical articulation of what anybody with any degree of ‘common’ sense believes.

      I was recently speaking to a friend of mine (an economic’s graduate!) who is currently looking to buy a house in central Dublin as he is genuinely of the belief that the market has ‘bottomed out’. When I probed him on this opinion, it seemed to largely based on his perception that the media and government said it was so.

      If David’s article makes one gullible fool stop and think before paying a massively inflated price for a house, then he must be applauded.

      The Dept. of Education needs to seriously consider teaching some basic economic literacy (Mortgages, Insurance, Compound Interest, Fiat Currency Vs. Gold/Silver, Bonds) in its outdated curriculum. The primary reason that the FF & Green’s spin is being swallowed by the country with ‘the best education system in the world’ (chuckle) is the ignorance of population at large.

      Now, aren’t I great 😉

      April 23, 2010, 5:43 pm Log in to Reply
      • G says

        Christ almighty, if only we could protect people from themselves, after all we’ve been through, there are still believers, it is beyond belief!

        April 24, 2010, 1:44 pm Log in to Reply
    • DarraghD says

      Brian Lenihan has pronounced that we have turned a corner. Indeed and we have, but what he forgot to mention is that if you look in your rear view mirror, those black circular objects you see bouncing around the dual carriage way behind you, are the wheels of the vehicle you are sitting in.

      BRACE BRACE BRACE!!!

      April 23, 2010, 6:42 pm Log in to Reply
      • paulmcd says

        I note that the Tánaiste and Minister for Education, MARY COUGHLAN, who recently asserted the need for all those involved in education to make sacrifices “in the national interest”, is now ruling out curbs on the pay packages of the fools and reprobates whose lack of competence ensured that Ireland has experienced and will continue to experience the most intense financial crisis of any nation globally.

        The Irish Times – Friday, April 23, 2010
        http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0423/1224268953805.html

        Those of you who are teachers should take note, especially if you are a member of INTO. We have a €75 billion NAMA problem which is “manageable” and a government which ordains that grossly excessive rewards for bankers and ex-bankers are also manageable but Mary C thinks that paying teachers’ current level of salaries is not manageable.

        April 23, 2010, 9:09 pm Log in to Reply
    • laughingbear says

      Allow me to bring your attention to the:

      INSTITUTE FOR NEW ECONOMIC THINKING

      http://ineteconomics.org/

      April 23, 2010, 11:15 pm Log in to Reply
      • cbweb says

        George,

        had a look at that this am, summary below for anyone not with the time to watch:

        Adair Turner, Chair of the FSA Financial Services Authority spoke of the need to cherish the ideal of a ’stable and self equilibriating system’. There is a need for new radical policy requirements, new capital and liquidity requirements, back to the higher fractional reserved rather than present over leveraged system over a long term, we may need to set limits to real estate lending, new tools to take the punch bowl away from the party.

        He spoke of complex securitised credit dangers, of trading in credit derivatives that rather than relying on independent credit analysis, also misallocated resources including human resources through rent extraction using mathematical modelling and new financial instruments. Greenspan doctrine of degregulation was based
        on an untrustworthy theory of rational expectations that was too much based on uncertainty. Turner called for a new and more diversified economic thinking from economists rather than one which tended to favour the financial industry where outside academia most economists found work.

        OT Cost of the bailout as % of GDP for Ireland this year is 14.5%http://bit.ly/c2ePxK, US cost less than 3.5% projected turns out it was less than 1% http://bit.ly/cZlxee.

        Turner refers to this above as perhaps if this is the cost for the US then the ‘too big to fail’ argument should be reexamined.

        Sounds like advice to an alcoholic they should cut down on booze over ‘the long term’ taking the view the cure could be more damaging than the disease if done over the short term!

        How about a ‘too big to save’ clause in our constitution to protect taxpayers!

        April 25, 2010, 2:08 pm Log in to Reply
    • laughingbear says

      —-THE ALLEGORY OF THE CAVE—-

      I wrote to Martina Devlin today congratulating her on an excellent article pointing to the impossibility of Finance minister Cowen 2004-2008 claiming not to have been in the realm of known at this time about banks and well, anything finance related really. A little bit like a plasterer who claims not to know what a spirit level is, adamant he never would have seen such in his entire life, but pushing a business card in your face ‘Master Plasterer’. Right!

      Plato’s school, known as the Academy, was the first university in western history from 387 B.C. until A.D. 529, when the christian roman ‘Regulator’, Justinian waged war on the western Mediterranean World and closed Plato’s school.

      Todays events, and a nearly five hours phone call with a friend in Greece/Heraklion, an Archeologist broadly interested on many aspects of life and well versed in many disciplines besides his preferred expertise, triggered my thoughts on Plato and that this may be a good time to remember this particular chapter in Plato’s Republic.

      Panagiotis agreed and we wished that we could share this moment by toasting on his little beach with one of his outstanding heavy reds of which he seems to have a never ending supply for good friends. So instead, I sat here in my wooly sweater with near freezing conditions outside, on toasted to him with a serving of 18 years old irish instead.

      I shall be excused for coming across somewhat emotional, the 18 years old took it’s toll.

      —- In the Allegory of the Cave Plato presents human condition as being chained, chained in a cave, with only a fire behind this person. He perceives the world by watching the shadows on the wall.

      He sits in darkness with the false light of the fire and does not realize that this existence is wrong or lacking. It is his only existence he knows, no other, hence has no complaints.

      Plato imagines what would occur if the chained man were suddenly released from his bondage and let out into the world. He describes how some would be frightened and want to return to to the dark but known existence. Others would look at the sun and see the world as it truly is.

      They would realise their existence was farce, a shadow of truth, and they would come to understand that their lives had been one of deception only.

      A few would embrace the sun, and the true life, and gain better knowledge of truth.

      They would return to the cave to free the others, puzzled by the people still in the cave who would not believe the now enlightened.

      Many would refuse to acknowledge any truth beyond their current existence in the cave. —-

      Greece is on the streets. Rightfully the people are protesting against the cuts and draconian measures implemented.

      Rightfully you ask?

      They deceived us in the first place by falsifying thier accounts to come into the Euro zone, then they deceived us again just in the past three months, by ever increasing deficits until the bomb exploded today.

      They?

      They are not the people of greece, they are a minority control power that has worked hand in hand with Goldmann Sachs in the same way FF has nourished bankers and developers under B. Ahern to cement his oligarchy into irish soil. A system of countless semi state bodies and a monster army of servants built up to the level we have today.

      No, the people of greece were not instrumental to this fraud that was performed on them and that pays Wallstreet and no one else at the end.

      Like in Ireland, a totally corrupt ruling class, a handful of people really, they played ball with the hot shots, and they probably thought they are on the same level like they are. WRONG!

      Hey, vanity is an easy thing to exploit, I guess Bertie has learned that lesson at some stage.

      A bunch of idiots who easily were played by the likes such as Maples & Calder / Goldmann Sachs.

      These idiots are the people who run the country, in Ireland and Greece. I mean, come one, what more proof does the public (big sigh) what more proof do they need.

      Greece should not have gone cap in hand, nope, they should have stood up and said fuck you, these are debts you imposed on us by means of fraud, there is absolutely no obligation for us to pay you back.

      Not?

      ……

      I asked Martina on her opinion why there is this eerie silence in Ireland, compared to Greece, I guess, thinking about Plato today, I found the answer.

      Best
      Georg

      April 24, 2010, 2:19 am Log in to Reply
      • cbweb says

        Bit out of date 23 Feb interview with Papandroeu

        http://bit.ly/a55rmX

        Level of corruption, withholding of taxes, cooking of books, nepotism and croneyism and the credibility gap arguably even larger in Greece than in Ireland.

        We also have a ministry for Disinformation and Propaganda working full time on this with people giving benefit of the doubt and elaying action to see what comes out from it all.

        But truth will out and the Irish public will eventually have their say and hopefully the eerie silence will end!

        April 24, 2010, 12:09 pm Log in to Reply
        • Furrylugs says

          Colm,
          The RTE News last night took the biscuit altogether. That clown from Bloxham or davy or whoever he was just lied into the camera. David estimated yonks ago that collectively we as a nation owe something like 400-500bn, way more than Greece. Whatever chicanery went on with the Germans, obviously we need to be supported but Greece can wobble(Thanks JohnA) away out of the Euro.
          Where’s the Lisbon Treaty now?? Not a mention.

          April 24, 2010, 12:20 pm Log in to Reply
      • laughingbear says

        Excerpt from Martina’s reply:

        Dear Georg, I think the Platonic analogy in your posting is right on
        the money. We are huddled in a cave, afraid of the sunshine. As to why
        we tolerate ineptitude and corruption: I wish I knew where this
        laissez-faire attitude originated. Maybe, having been colonised so
        long, we expect little from our ruling class.

        —-

        Yes, expect too little would be an understatement, and yes, may be my original thoughts on the roots of this public lethargy are not too far away from the truth.

        I said somewhere earlier that the public reminds me of a child in the hands of the christian brothers, abused and beaten into submission. Later in life, this child will have extreme difficulties to become a free thinking individual.

        May be a double dose of the swiss author and psychologist Alice Miller ‘ Breaking down the walls of Silence’ would be required to inject into the irish public to get a wake up call.

        April 24, 2010, 12:17 pm Log in to Reply
    • Furrylugs says

      It’s not good now. At all. I joined this conversation 2 years ago when the maelstrom burst. And worse it’s got. Still they try to deny what’s coming. But no matter. I’ve had phone calls asking me to do something(I’ve lost you’re number- Sorry- Please get back in touch Mallow?)
      Upon serious reflection, there are people who read what we write here and all they are looking for is a way forward. Maybe I’ve just had a moment of enlightenment or something but I’ve just realised that what I write here may be read by a lot of people needing just one glimmer of hope to drive on.
      A good few years ago and nothing to do with money or feckin bankers or all that, when I was under severe pressure, someone(Who will know who Furrylugs is straightaway if she reads this)put this into my hand. I hadn’t seen it before and to some it may be trite, but it was true for me.
      I can be a bit of a hard case sometimes and in truth, I would have no sympathy for those who have brought our Nation into penury, but just to pause for a bit, if there is anyone reading this, I add the following, which didn’t do me any harm at all and I was under severe pressure at the time. It pulled me through.
      I hope it may do the same for anyone here. God Bless.
      http://www.thedontquitpoem.com/

      April 24, 2010, 2:22 am Log in to Reply
      • laughingbear says

        Furry,

        I am atheist, and I appreciate your link!

        So much suffering behind closed doors, not in the media, not in the papers, not on bloody Gerry Ryan other than to serve a purpose, so much BS spat in our face at the same time as ‘the truth’.

        After I hung up the phone, I switched on my keyboard and had to play some music, it keeps me sane in insane times.

        Will post some soon.

        Thanks for that!

        Best
        Georg

        April 24, 2010, 2:46 am Log in to Reply
        • laughingbear says

          ….scratchpad…. goofing around some ideas for a somewhat larger piece of synthesizers, quire and orchestra.

          ahem, …rough…

          http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4914840/Vienna%20Ensemble%20Pro%2020100423%200029.mp3

          April 24, 2010, 3:47 am Log in to Reply
          • cbweb says

            @laughingbear

            great fan of dance music here:) You might need a deep drum loop throughout, but its well on the way to being a hit:)

            April 24, 2010, 11:33 am Log in to Reply
            • Furrylugs says

              None of my business but for the record…..IMHO Dance Music sounds like a cross between Whale Song and Haitian Hypno Voodoo stuff. Or am I really sounding like me Dad?
              BTW;
              Comical Lenny – “We have turned the corner”…“We are not rushing into the banks without knowing precisely what the position is in those banks” – “I would be reluctant to commit the taxpayer on any issue connected with risk” – ““I do really want to scotch the idea that there are huge risks to the taxpayer” – “I am not prepared to contemplate the establishment of an entity that has no responsibility or accountability to this House.” – “The recapitalised banks have reconfirmed their commitment to an extensive credit package which will help to increase lending capacity to small and medium enterprises by 10% and to provide an additional 30% capacity for lending to first time buyers in 2009.” – “We can’t have a lawyers’ bonanza and that is another good reason why we have to get this right.”
              With the height of respect Minister and with the benefit of hindsight;
              Respectfully, you were talking bollocks and you paid sweet for the advice from a bunch of charlatans with our money.

              More here;
              http://thestory.ie/2010/04/02/quotes-from-minister-for-finance-brian-lenihan/

              April 24, 2010, 12:15 pm
            • laughingbear says

              LOL, I don’t think so, it was just a live improvisation goofing around with an idea for orchestra synths and, well, ideally the London Philharmonic Choir.

              One needs dreams, hey, what the Hell, even Frank Zappa had his work played by the LSO.

              April 24, 2010, 12:29 pm
        • Furrylugs says

          Georg,
          If it only gave one moment of peace, then thats enough.
          I buried a great friend 2 weeks ago. She was 98. Her saying was “A light Heart Lives Long”.
          It’s stuck on my fridge and will be.
          David McWilliams has given us a great forum to expose the wrongs but he has also given us a great forum to discuss where we should go. Or at least go forward making decisions based on best knowledge.
          For that, and that alone for the moment, he is to be thanked. But DMcW don’t do thanks. He should. But he don’t.
          Whatever. He’s saved a really good friend of mine 300 yo yo a month in mortgage repayments. Furrylugs sends respect for that.
          BTW. My name is Joe Larkin and my mobile is 0871440080. I don’t hide behind Furrylugs. It’s just that years ago, All the MSN name were taken so I stuck in the craziest name I could think of. And it stuck.
          So there you are.

          April 24, 2010, 4:21 am Log in to Reply
          • Furrylugs says

            Late BTW Georg,
            When Angela listens to her truthful people and takes Deutchland to a different place, Cork and Donegal will still have common bonds.
            Begreifen;
            But of course you do.
            F

            April 24, 2010, 5:23 am Log in to Reply
            • laughingbear says

              Sorry to hear that Joe, 98 is an amazing age. She was around when no cars were in Ireland, saw 2 world wars and so much more….

              The unity of experience. Resurrected metaphysical systems act as a kind of substitute for this, conveying the message that things are not so bad and trying to ‘reassure people about certain essentialities which … have become problematic, above all time.

              I do not think Angie ever read Adorno’s Dialectic of Enlightenment though.

              April 24, 2010, 11:02 am
          • Invalid username says

            Bring down the State. Take down the Gov. Get rid of It.

            If necessary, use violence – remove the people who are responsible for the problem.

            WE, THE PEOPLE, ARE THE SOVEREIGNTY! (Yes, it’s a real word!)

            BS! I called yr 087 nr. but it’s not real!

            April 26, 2010, 10:40 pm Log in to Reply
            • liam says

              “If necessary, use violence”

              Ah, the classical Irish solution to political problems. And isn’t that kind of nonsense what got us the Government and the political system we have today?

              Its worth mentioning, for the record, that I personally think this is a Very Bad Idea.

              April 27, 2010, 1:13 pm
        • G says

          @ laughingbear – as an atheist, this should also give you a laugh

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMKPVECn0J0&feature=player_embedded

          April 24, 2010, 1:29 pm Log in to Reply
      • tony_murphy says

        Joe,

        Liked the don’t quit poem.

        A few years ago, I ran the London Marathon. I felt my knee go after about a mile, but I kept going regardless. I had invested a lot of time and effort into preparing, and I wasn’t giving up that easy.

        I seen people who had come out to support the runners, carry banners saying, “pain is temporary quitting is forever”. I looked at people running with artificial legs, people running and pushing the likes of beds and shopping trollies, people dressed in outrageously inappropriate clothing for charity, etc, there was no way I was quitting when they could do it

        I got to 23 miles, it was roasting hot, like it will be tomorrow for the event, I thought I would collapse. In my head, I said I was going to walk the rest of the way, it took my legs a few minutes to get the message. I managed to hobble to the finish line. 2 weeks later I had surgery for a torn cartilage – my knee was back to normal 3 months later

        Was I stubborn? yes,
        Stupid? yes,
        Glad I kept going? yes

        I learned that people can do almost anything if they really want to, regardless of the barriers. It’s all about will power. It’s something I will never forget

        April 24, 2010, 6:59 pm Log in to Reply
    • cbweb says

      @ BigJim 49

      @BigJim

      I regard myself as a highly optimistic and constructive person with a penchant for deconstructing propaganda gorging nonsense. To iIgnore the weeds and only see the daisies is part of the propaganda machine bespoke of Lenin/Clowen.

      Weeds are threatening to overrun this small island of ours. They were sown by the present Government and through NAMA and the bankocracy they’ve surpassed themselves in sowing even more giant weeds on our fair land.

      Polyanna like daisy searching among the weeds comes in the main in my experience from Greek gobshite sirens luring us onto the rocks. So here’s a little rubric of optimism for you to clean up our land:

      This is my optimism, if you find the following negative, then you have a problem with your own blindfold. Sorry if I refuse to wear a blindfold such as yours.

      1. Tell the truth about Anglo, give a breakdown of its liabilities.

      2. Hold a general election immediately and remove FF from office asap.

      3. Wind down Anglo/Nationwide. Bolster AIB/BOI with their remains.

      4. Proper Inquiry into the banks. Multiply the numbers involved in Garda fraud investigation.

      Absence of proper documentation in support of lending to developers must be seen for what it is, evidence of embezzlement. Seizing of assets by CAB. Prison sentences.

      Boards of Directors replaced and appropriate senior management given leave of absence while the investigation is underway.

      4. Negotiate with Merkel/Sarkozy/Trichet/Schauble/Lagarde on our exit from the euro, nb not from the EU.

      5. Default or negotiate with bondholders

      6. Return to the punt.

      7. Invest in the creation of real jobs in a new really really Smart Economy.

      Above for starters. We can bounce back if we have the above. What is negative is to go on with the present ball and chain of NAMA, pouring money into the black hole of Anglo, burdening generations to come with the debt incurred by banksters and fraudsters and incompetent FF and lurching our economy onto a failed fiscal possibility once again, a goddam second property bubble fed by taxpayers money and NAMA and broken banks in an environment of total depletion of our competitiveness because of debt reparations sending this country on a path towards an economy such as Haiti’s.

      Welcome to the list BigJim, I guess we differ bigtime on what the meaning of optimism/pessimism related to our country’s financial meltdown.

      I’m against false optimism, if that is deemed to be negative, I’m delighted to be negative. NAMA is a gambler’s optimistic bet a Second Coming of our property bubble disaster can be awakened, I’m negative against that and abhor the fact our banker/property developer puppet government is funding this from taxpayers…

      April 24, 2010, 10:55 am Log in to Reply
      • Furrylugs says

        Mighty comment Colm. Just one little issue. For taxpayers, substitute current taxpayers. There won’t be any true taxpayers in a years time. The private wealth creating sector will have emigrated or evaporated due to apoplexy and collecting tax from a public sector paid by borrowed money is just a circular facade.

        April 24, 2010, 12:26 pm Log in to Reply
        • G says

          I find it appropriate that the movie Shutter Island – it poses the question, what happened to patient 67?

          He became f**king Taoiseach!

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdumGs1qoXM

          April 24, 2010, 1:18 pm Log in to Reply
        • paulmcd says

          Furrylugs, I realise that people are inclined to forget it but we are all taxpayers, even children with pocket money or “bob job money” buying little luxuries like ice cream will be paying Value Added Tax.

          April 24, 2010, 3:16 pm Log in to Reply
        • cbweb says

          @Furrylugs,

          Agree with you there. Scott expedition to the South Pole, nobody believed the guy could fail.

          Scott’s blind adherence to obsolete methods lost him his life and the lives of those who followed him on the last leg of his journey.

          We’re embarked on something similar here to that Scott expedition, one hopes the repercussions will not be as severe!

          There was a better way, the Almundsen way, just as there is today with the Swedish model, how Bo Lundgren et al reacted in 1992
          http://nyti.ms/7edK5 to their crisis which had very similar parallels to our own here.

          So, yeah, apoplectic wealth creating sector will head off for better climes sick to death of poor investment in educational infrastructure, poor social services, rising poverty levels, crime levels and a suffocated enterprise culture.

          Anyone buying now is crazy. Property prices will drop a lot further. When the shit hits the fan there’ll be plenty of bargains going for a song on Howth Head.

          April 24, 2010, 4:48 pm Log in to Reply
    • G says

      From Irish Times, thought worth posting article in full………………..

      Your Country, Your Call has questions to answer
      SIMON McGARR

      Fri, Apr 23, 2010

      OPINION: Where is all the money for this competition coming from? And why?

      THE YOUR Country, Your Call competition has a week to go before submissions close and the judges start to consider which of them will be awarded €100,000. The stated aim of the competition is far reaching and radical – nothing less than to “create prosperity and jobs at an entirely different level from what currently exists”, as Pádraig McKeon, Drury Communications managing director and Your Country steering group member, has said.

      It has been supported by many of the pillars of the establishment. However, it is surprising given the scope of this ambition – and access to specialist knowledge – that there are still plenty of questions unanswered since the competition was launched.

      Firstly, is the competition equitable to participants?

      Under section 7.1 of the terms and conditions of the competition, every participant grants a “worldwide, perpetual, irrevocable, transferable, unencumbered, royalty-free, fully paid-up, non-exclusive licence” to An Smaoineamh Mór, the limited liability company running the competition.

      For the winners, the consequences are total loss of ownership of their idea. Section 7.2 says that the winner (or winners) “shall irrevocably transfer, convey and assign to the promoter (or such party that the promoter may direct) all right, title and interest in and to the winning proposal and all intellectual property rights therein.”

      After they pocket their €100,000, they lose all interest in an idea which will, by the organisers’ own description, “create prosperity and jobs” to an unprecedented degree. That’s a return on €100,000 of which any private venture capital company would be proud. We can imagine the winners might, as that prosperity grows in An Smaoineamh Mór Ltd’s bank account, come to feel rather like the creators of early comic book characters: cut out of the fortunes their imaginations summoned into being.

      Secondly, where is all the money for this competition coming from and why?

      At first glance this question seems to have been answered quite clearly. McKeon told the Value Ireland blog on March 6th: “A cash fund of just under €2 million has been accumulated via donations from 13 parties (companies and individuals) which has been lodged in the accounts of the company, An Smaoineamh Mór . . . the promoters formally presented the project to Government late last summer and asked for support in three ways – a contribution to the fund referred above; a request that the competition would have access if it needed it to the services of the State enterprise agencies in the evaluation process (if such help were required); and a commitment that Government would engage with the process of developing the two winning proposals, particularly with reference to any legislative issues that might need to be addressed. It agreed to all three requests – it will be contributing 15 per cent of the fund.”

      But on March 23rd, in response to a parliamentary question from Ciarán Lynch who asked the then minister for enterprise Mary Coughlan whether she had “given or [had] undertaken to give public money” to the project, she told the Dáil: “My department is currently examining a proposal to provide funding of up to €300,000 to the Your Country, Your Call initiative from within existing resources. No funding has yet been paid by my department in respect of the initiative.” And she went on to say that “if funding is made available” she would want to ensure that it was accounted for properly.

      Which is odd. Because it shows (a) the minister hadn’t made a decision to give An Smaoineamh Mór any money and (b) that the amount of money she was considering paying is any figure “up to” €300,000. It also raises questions as to what conditions may be placed on any funding. So, has An Smaoineamh Mór Ltd got €300,000 of public money in a bank account? Or not?

      When I posed that question online, McKeon showed a new reticence compared to his earlier statement: “As to the status of the account today, we will not be publishing that detail during the competition.”

      Actually, there are lots of “details” we don’t know about An Smaoineamh Mór’s accounts. We don’t know who those earlier-mentioned 13 parties (companies and individuals) are. A list of 87 names is provided on the Your Country, Your Call website as a non-exhaustive indicator of contributors, but not all have given money. We don’t know which of the named and unnamed contributors have provided money and if so, how much. We don’t know what the financial contributors’ relationship with the State is, though we do know from public records that two of the State-supported banks, AIB and Bank of Ireland, are in there somewhere. We don’t know, therefore, how much public money is in that €2 million “cash fund”.

      That’s a lot of don’t knows. We’ve been promised since February that they would all be revealed “in the coming weeks”. Those weeks are still coming.

      Finally, is the competition equitable to taxpayers? An Smaoineamh Mór Ltd is recognised as a charity by the Revenue Commissioners on the basis of its memorandum and articles of association. But those same documents allow for the company to establish for-profit subsidiary companies.

      As already mentioned, it will own all the intellectual property in the winning entry or entries. It intends to establish a vaguely defined “something” to create jobs, and prosperity. But jobs and prosperity don’t occur in the abstract. They are the happy side effect of a highly profitable business.

      Under what statutory power is the Minister considering funding a privately owned company (backed by undisclosed persons) with public money – completely outside the normal enterprise support institutions and structures – with the intended aim of developing a vastly profitable business or industry without any known provision for a return on that investment for the State?

      And if there is such a power, how could it be in the public interest to use it?

      ——————————————————————————–

      © 2010 The Irish Times

      April 24, 2010, 6:32 pm Log in to Reply
    • Tim says

      Until I discovered Eírigí had done it, I thought that our own Machholtz may have taken-over ANGLO, today.

      A fairly major undertaking, really, it got about 30 seconds of coverage on the RTE news.

      Our media may be a bigger obstacle than the Parliamentary Parties. (or is it, simply, the IBEC-related advertisers that control our media? Deco may elucidate?)

      April 24, 2010, 6:35 pm Log in to Reply
      • G says

        media may be a bigger obstacle than the Parliamentary Parties

        Possibly, certainly play a major propaganda role in terms of stories covered and those not.

        Where has Haiti gone for example? The situation is worse there now with the rainy season about to kick in, coverage across the networks has been completely dropped, as if the 1.3 million directly impacted no longer exist, same can be said of Palestine, word is Israel is gearing up for another attack in both the West Bank and Southern Lebanon, not to mind sabre rattling over Iran.

        You have to go to outside sources, relying on RTE/Pravda will almost certainly leave you behind the posse. Number of websites out there which are cutting edge in terms of independent news, such sources are undermining the networks and State-Pravda-esque news, do you really need to know what is going on in the courts regarding sexual abuse cases, murders etc – it is just lazy, cheap reporting, reporter, camera, same shit every night…………….pure nonsense.

        Chomsky has explored the media pretty well in this regard, here are two excellent interviews, one where he absolutely takes apart the BBC’s Andrew Marr, who like Mark Little, made the fatal error of approaching the interview in an aggressive manner, Marr didn’t know what COINTELPRO was!

        The other is an insightful interview on the BBC’s Hardtalk……………..

        1) The Vision Thing – Chomsky V Andrew Marr
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu1ONVg362o

        2) Chomsky on Hardtalk
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B00qgKnz-uU

        April 24, 2010, 8:33 pm Log in to Reply
    • paulmcd says

      http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0424/1224269036891.html?via=rel

      The link given above is to one of the article’s in today’s Irish Times relating to the fact that the arrangements whereby BOUCHER became “entitled” to the 1.5 m top-up was approved by LENIHAN. You will read in a related article that our MINISTER OF FINANCE did not have the arrangements costed, leaving BoI’s actuaries to do the necessary. Our Minister of Justice, who should be taking action but will not do so, would describe the sums to be received by BOUCHER as “an accounting technicality”.

      LENIHAN is concerned only with window-dressing. Rather than BOUCHER “caving in”, I am sure that in the fullness of time we will learn that other arrangements will have been entered into relating to his pension which will prove to have been equally beneficial, if not more so. That is the underhand manner in which Lenihan operates.

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