Economy Rigging 1

BSK log, 30/09/10 September 30, 2010

Filed under: Uncategorized — bashstreetkidjailbreak @ 11:48 am

MAIN ITEM:

The following idea *defining reality* seems most apt to highlight on the day that it all has turned out to be today.

What is that reality? All Irish banks are now owned by the irish taxpayer give or take a small %.

ITEM 1:

BY David McWilliams writes on the defining realities we are all now faced with today: WE MUST FACE REALITY – AND END BANK GUARANTEE | David McWilliams

ITEM 2:

BY Bloomberg writes on AIB next: Ireland Faces $68 Billion Bank Rescue to Prop Up Allied, Anglo – Bloomberg

 

BSK log, 29/09/10 September 29, 2010

Filed under: Uncategorized — bashstreetkidjailbreak @ 4:36 pm

MAIN ITEM:

A must read on the 2nd anniversary of  *blanket guarantee*.

Katherine Barrington investigative article on ANGLO and ISLE OF MAN link: The curious tale of Anglo Irish Bank and its Austrian deposits | Journalist.ie

ITEM 1:

BY CONSTANTIN GURDGIEV – EXTERNAL BAILOUT LIKELY OPTION AS IRELAND TEETERS: External bailout seems likely option as Ireland teeters on brink of abyss | Irish Examiner

ITEM 2:

BY NPR – FEDERAL RESERVE FOR DUMMIES:  The Fed, Translated Into English : Planet Money : NPR

 

BSK log, 28/09/10 September 28, 2010

Filed under: Uncategorized — bashstreetkidjailbreak @ 12:07 pm

MAIN ITEM:

The price for borrowing for Ireland hitting 6.99 % and its subsequent undermining of confidence and, also, the happenings on the ground level within Ireland. Particularly the money markets and realities contradicting the magical thinking bubble get rich quick school of economics holding onto *more of the same*, holding on for more quick riches for the future.

ITEM 1:

Here is an example of these economic incompatibilities underway, over to Peston:

‘..Of course, the great fear for the Irish government is that its putative virtue in making deep public spending cuts – and Mr Lenihan conceded that there are some big and painful decisions ahead – will further undermine confidence in the value of Irish assets, triggering further losses at banks, and thus eliminating the fiscal benefits of the deficit reduction programme.’

So to conclude from this possible eventuality the Irish taxpayer will see the price of borrowing going up even higher again potentially. A self perpetuating spiral upwards in the price of borrowing for the Irish state driven on by an entrenched over reliance on international credit and money lenders.

ITEM 2:

More on this from the WSJ:

{‘…Mr. Cowen and his Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan insist they are on track to deliver a budget deficit of 3% of GDP by 2014, as previously agreed with the European Commission.

Not so Mr. May. He worries that the rising cost of the bank bailout will finally take its toll:

“The recent run of disappointing news from Ireland means that public debt is looking increasingly likely to reach Greek proportions, suggesting that the Irish government may eventually be left with little choice but to restructure its debts.”

Mr. May has more comment that will make juicy newspaper headlines:

“Even if the government can persuade markets that it has already committed enough to put the banks back on an even keel, its troubles are far from over. At the very least, fiscal austerity will lead to a long period of very weak growth. At worst, Ireland may be forced to default.” ‘}

ITEM 3:

True Economics blog breaks it down : True Economics: Economics 18/9/10: IMF data on bond yields

and also,

BBC Robert Peston blog report on Ireland: BBC – Peston’s Picks: Why Ireland can’t afford to punish reckless lenders to its banks

and,

ITEM 4:

FT on Ireland:

Ireland will on Thursday unveil a fresh taxpayer-funded recapitalisation of Anglo Irish Bank, the institution at the centre of the country’s property meltdown, amid rising alarm in the markets over the country’s financial health.

Ireland’s cost of borrowing on Tuesday hit record levels with yields on 10-year government bonds jumping 25 basis points to 6.72 per cent.

Irish bond yields for 10-year debt are at similar levels to Greece at the start of April – only a month before Athens was forced to turn to the international community for loans.

The rise in yields came despite buying from the European Central Bank to help stabilise the markets, according to traders, as investors worried that the cost to bail out Anglo Irish and other financial institutions is much higher than first thought.

The Irish Central Bank’s additional capital injection is expected to be about €5bn. That would bring the bail-out costs for Anglo Irish to €30bn, shy of the €35bn forecast by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s.

Brian Cowen, Ireland’s prime minister, said: “We are determined to do what’s necessary to achieve international confidence and build domestic confidence.”

As part of a choreographed series of announcements, Brian Lenihan, Irish finance minister and the legal shareholder of the nationalised bank, will announce plans to meet tougher capital targets, including a restructuring of part of Anglo Irish’s €16bn bond debt.

The announcement coincides with the expiry of Ireland’s two- year blanket guarantee for bank liabilities at its six domestic lenders, introduced in September 2008 to prevent a run on Anglo Irish.

ITEM 5:

BY IRISH INDEPENDENT – FINAL TAXPAYER BILL ON ANGLO

By Fionnan Sheahan Political Editor

Tuesday September 28 2010

THE Government will announce the cost and timescale of the plan to wind down Anglo Irish Bank by the end of this week.

The coalition’s approach to negotiating a deal with Anglo’s lenders will be closely scrutinised by international markets, amid warnings it will affect the cost of borrowing for the country.

The delay in providing a figure, estimated to be in the region of €30bn, on the Anglo strategy is being partly blamed for the rise in the interest rate being charged on borrowing by the State.

But the coalition hopes to provide some certainty to the markets when the details of the plan are announced by the Central Bank.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan will brief his cabinet colleagues on the broad outline of the plan at their weekly meeting tomorrow.

The crucial elements of the Government’s plan to split Anglo and then gradually wind it down will be announced by the Central Bank later in the week.

Mr Lenihan and his officials in the Department of Finance have been in constant contact with the Central Bank and Financial Regulator regarding the fleshing out of the Anglo plan announced earlier this month.

The minister is understood to have discussed the latest developments in the drafting of the Anglo plan with Taoiseach Brian Cowen yesterday.

Mr Lenihan is also in touch with Communications Minister Eamon Ryan, who represents the Green Party on banking issues.

Central Bank Governor Professor Patrick Honohan and Financial Regulator Matthew Elderfield are responsible for estimating the cost and timeline for the plan.

But Mr Lenihan is being warned that a default on government-guaranteed debt at state-owned Anglo Irish Bank would lead to a funding crisis for the State and the banking system at large.

Goldman Sachs International chairman Peter Sutherland said the maximum saving the Government could make on sharing Anglo’s rising losses with debt holders was €5.1bn.

Crisis

However, the former European Commissioner and Attorney General warned that such a move would “precipitate a funding crisis” for the State and the banks and that the damage would be serious.

Mr Lenihan believes the Government’s decision to split Anglo will provide certainty about the bank’s future.

When asked about a timeframe for the wind-down earlier this month, Mr Lenihan said it would be “difficult to see it going beyond 15 years”.

Mr Lenihan also admits the proposal is not a “silver bullet” to restore international confidence in the Irish economy.

Lenihan to reveal full plan for Anglo wrap-up – National News, Frontpage – Independent.ie

 

BSk log, 27/09/10 September 27, 2010

Filed under: Uncategorized — bashstreetkidjailbreak @ 9:04 pm

ITEM 1:

RECOMMENDED WEBSITES:

FINFACTS: IRELAND BUSINESS: FINFACTS IRISH FINANCE & BUSINESS PORTAL – mortgage Ireland, protection, life insurance, Financial Services, Investment, loans, Irish jobs Ireland, Dublin mortgages, Cork, Limerick, Galway, Share, Stock prices,

IRISH GOVERNMENT STRATEGY: Irish Government Strategy [licensed for non-commercial use only] / FrontPage

ITEM: 2

MERCANTILISM: Mercantilism – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

ITEM 3:

NEW BLOG ON IRELAND: Welcome to Green Tech Bubble

 

BSK log, 25/09/10 September 26, 2010

Filed under: Uncategorized — bashstreetkidjailbreak @ 4:57 pm

MAIN ITEM OF DAY:

Spreadsheets on NAMA ‘project facilitators’

The Developers « NAMA Wine Lake

ITEM 1:

BY PROPERTY WEEK – ‘NAMA, really a property company’

‘We’re really a property company, not a bad bank …’ | News – print | Property Week

 

BSK log, 24/09/10 September 25, 2010

Filed under: Uncategorized — bashstreetkidjailbreak @ 1:24 pm

ITEM 1:

BY THE IRISH INDEPENDENT – BOND YIELDS  / NTMA /

THE head of the country’s debt agency warned yesterday that a number of milestones would have to be passed before the rate of interest demanded by investors for Irish Government bonds narrowed.

John Corrigan, the chief executive of the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), said three issues would calm market jitters:

Decisions on the rolling over of existing loans by the Irish banks by the end of September,

  • Clarity over final cost of bailing out Anglo Irish Bank,
  • The upcoming Budget.

Speaking at a ‘Confidence in the Media’ conference in Dublin, Mr Corrigan said market concerns about the imminent funding challenges facing Irish banks were overdone.

He added that the authorities stand ready to make up any shortfalls.

“We’ve characterised concerns around this like the millennium bug,” Mr Corrigan said.

“We all thought the planes were going to fall out of the sky, the trains were going to stop, the clocks weren’t going to work,” he said.

NTMA chief outlines hurdles to achieving cheaper bond yields – Irish, Business – Independent.ie

 

BSK log, 23/09/10 September 23, 2010

Filed under: Uncategorized — bashstreetkidjailbreak @ 12:21 pm

MAIN ITEM OF THE DAY

BY NEWSNIGHT BBC – MONEY PRINTING

BBC – Newsnight: Paul Mason: Next: QE2 – and if that doesn’t work it’s a currency war

ITEM 1:

BY THE GUARDIAN – IRELAND ECONOMY DOUBLE DIP

Irish economy faces double dip recession | Business | guardian.co.uk

Irelands recovery from the deepest recession of any eurozone country came to a quick and unexpected end today when the Irish government announced that national output dropped by 1.2% in the second quarter of 2010.

After posting an increase in growth in the first three months of the year, official data showed that the former “Celtic Tiger” sank into a double dip recession in the spring.

News of the relapse rattled the financial markets and put additional pressure on Dublin’s unpopular coalition government, which had previously insisted that its tough budget cuts were helping to stabilise the economy. Ireland has also been hailed by Britain’s coalition government for its decision to tackle the double-digit budget deficit left by the collapse of its property bubble with immediate and deep cuts.

Investors warned that fears about Ireland’s ability to generate growth would push up the interest rates on its debt.

ITEM 2:

BY BUSINESS AND FINANCE  – EURO SLIDE DUE TO IRELAND CONCERN

(Reuters) – The euro retreated from a five-month high versus the dollar on Thursday, stung by worry over Ireland’s banking sector and a contraction in the Irish economy that underlined concern over the euro zone periphery.

Euro slides on Ireland bank, growth concerns – Business & Finance

 

BSK log, 22/09/10 September 22, 2010

Filed under: Uncategorized — bashstreetkidjailbreak @ 4:46 pm

NEWS ITEM OF THE DAY:

> This TASC link contextualizes the FT editorial and frames the hidden interests pushing for all energy and focus on cut’s as Irelands salvation.

progressive-economy@tasc: … and more from abroad

BY FT – EDITORIAL ON IRELANDS DILEMMA / FULL ARTICLE BELOW

>Brian Cowen’s “hoarse” performance in a radio interview has led to calls for the Irish prime minister’s resignation. But this is the least of his mistakes, or the country’s problems. It would be better if Irish deputies focused less on his alleged tipsiness, and more on his misguided strategy for dealing with the country’s banking sector.

Confidence in Ireland’s creditworthiness has slumped. At a debt auction on Tuesday, Ireland was forced to pay more than 5 per cent for four year bonds – about what it would pay were it to access the European Financial Stability Facility. Weakening growth has pushed the country off-track in its fiscal consolidation, leading the central bank governor, Patrick Honohan, to call for further cuts in public expenditure lest Ireland misses its deficit reduction target.

The Irish public has already taken plenty of pain in the form of spending and wage cuts. Before asking for more, Mr Cowen should change a perverse policy that pushes up interest rates and crimps growth. Ireland was not highly indebted before the crisis, with sovereign borrowings of just 25 per cent of GDP. Private sector analysts now fear that gross public debt may reach up to 136 per cent in 2014, once Dublin’s guarantees and estimated losses are added to its sovereign borrowings. Much of this reflects the state’s acceptance of open-ended exposure to private liabilities across the banking sector – a policy that unnerves markets and jacks up sovereign rates.

Ultimately, given the government’s determination to shrink the primary deficit, the main determinant of debt sustainability will be the interest rate. Getting market rates down will therefore be more important to control the deficit than cutting a couple more percentage points of GDP from public spending (a course that anyway might further harm a growth path that looks set to lag the government’s own projections).

Mr Cowen should cut the umbilical chord to the banking system by making it credible that bondholders will no longer be protected against all losses. This could only be done after enacting a special resolution regime such as the one the UK has adopted. It might mean an Irish banking system with fewer liabilities and more foreign ownership. But it would cut sovereign yields and set the deficit on a sustainable path.

The Irish public has been stoical about austerity but anger is now crystallising around the banks. Mr Cowen has a sobering choice: to allow a wipeout of creditors or face wipeout at the next election.

FT.com / Comment / Editorial – Ireland’s dilemma

ITEM 1:

BY – ANON

BELOW IS AN ANSWER TO A QUESTION ON WHY ECB BANK ROLLING IRELANDS BOND ISSUANCE.

>Because a very large percentage of the money that was lent to Anglo and the other banks came from German banks. If the Irish tax payer does not pour money into the Irish banks, the loser will be the German banks, so they are doing everything they can (and the Germans have huge influence with the ECB, basically they are the ECB at this stage). The German banks are doing everything they can to make sure they will get paid back. Basically the ECB is not providing a backstop to the Irish bond market for our good or because they like us. As David says, the sooner this is stopped the better.

ITEM 2:

BY ANON – IRELAND / ANGLO HEADLOCK

There is another way. We are talking about a fairer, more equitable, more just society. But we have aligned ourselves with such forces and people that is virtually impossible to redistribute or get out of the self-imposed head lock, especially with the continued and utterly insane bailout of Anglo and soon, AIB and BOI. There is no way we can raise the corporate tax rate, corporations whether we like it or not are a source of much needed revenue and more importantly, employment, to touch that now would be disastrous

 

BSK log, 21/09/10 September 21, 2010

Filed under: Uncategorized — bashstreetkidjailbreak @ 3:41 pm

BSKJBS PICK OF NEWS LINKS OF THE DAY:

MAIN ITEM OF THE DAY:

BY: DR.CONSTANTIN GURDGIEV – IRELANDS BOND ISSUANCE BUSY DAY

True Economics: Economics 21/9/10: This Little PIIGSy Went to the Market

ITEM 1:

BY The Telegraph / Evan-Pritchard

Ex-Bundesbank chief  Karl Otto Pohl has just said that Ireland and Greece are in danger of defaulting on their sovereign debts and/or may be forced out of the Euro, for those who may not be aware of his Sky interview by my colleague Jeff Randall.

“I think there are countries considering the possibility. It would be very expensive,” he said. “The exchange rate would go down, 50 or 60% and then interest rates would go sky high because the markets would lose all confidence.”

Professor Pohl said Germany’s political class is afraid their country will ultimately have to pay for the EMU mess. His view is that the burden should be shifted to the IMF (ie. the US, Canada, Japan, Britain). Thanks a lot Karl Otto. You broke it, you fix it.

This is more or less what ex-foreign minister Joschka Fischer has been saying in London over the last two days, although his main point is that Russia is now the equivalent of Germany in the 1930s: an embittered nation with a revanchist and dysfunctional leadership class.

Mr Fischer now thinks monetary union is beyond saving. A massive rescue will be needed. It will not be forthcoming. German-French relations are the worst since the war, he said. The European insitutions have lost virtually all authority in this crisis. The half-century Project is collapsing. .. or words to that effect, from what I hear.

Are Germans giving up on the euro – Telegraph Blogs

ITEM 2:

BY NEW YORK TIMES – IRISH BOND ISSUANCE

Irish Bond Auction Eases Some Tension – NYTimes.com

ITEM 3:

BY IRISH EXAMINER – IMF WARNING

Warning over IMF intervention | Irish Examiner

ITEM 4:

BY IRISH TIMES

We must change course quickly to avoid disaster – The Irish Times – Tue, Sep 21, 2010

 

BSK log, 20/09/10 September 20, 2010

Filed under: Uncategorized — bashstreetkidjailbreak @ 3:24 pm

ITEM1

BY WILLS – DMcW’S NEW ARTICLE / CAPITALISM IS OUR PUNISHMENT.

Article touches base on a number of realties crystallizing.

Bonds going to 7%.

Gov relying more and more on ECB backstop.

Anglo black hole, interminable.

Confusion with Irish public regarding confidence in banking.

Corporate pull out on funds.

And, Ponzi pops up finally the penny dropping in the mainstream that the property bubble was a Ponzi scam driven by the banks and the cause of all the above.

The sum of which = financial cul-de sac.

Now what……………………………………………………………………………!!

Now what happens……………………………………………………………….!!

The *insiders* move to preserve their position’s going forward into a new dawn.

Thats what happens, below there.

NAMA / ANGLO.

And, if it involves driving the runaway State bond issuance train, ploughing it straight into door of the IMF with an inevitable sovereign default, so be it, cos, the insiders in Ireland are not going to relinquish power and their luxuries and comfort zones and opulent material wealth for the sake of the countries book balances. Ain’t gonna happen.

No way in hell is it going to happen.

Ireland’s cosy insider elite who are in charge, wherever they maybe on the spectrum of power and influence, these people are not going to input change into a rigged economic system if it spells the end of their easy rich living set up.

What we seem to be left with seems to be that the only show in town is by much, can the insiders, in Ireland, put the kosh on the outsiders to take the pain and keep the easy living on the hog *show*, on the road, without invoking an uprising amongst the outsiders.

Whether they invoke IMF or not in preserving their positions of power influence and patronage is all discussions of a trifle with these characters as demonstrated in blazers the other night. BC gets all the blame but he is albeit but one amongst many and at least he is prepared not to hide it.

As for the ECB and IMF one can only but wonder are the technocrats over there at the same game or, merely falling under the spell of the twinkle in the eye leprechaun promise of a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

Fascinating times and keeping us all on the edge of our seats.

ITEM 2:

BY ANON – EU REALITIES RELATING TO IRELANDS FINANCEERING

The problem is, the plan for the EU was always for it to be a federation of States, like the USA or USSR, with one central bank, like the Federal Reserve in America.

We in Ireland – and this goes for other European countries too, still think that we live in a separate nation state, even though we are in the EZ with its ECB, this being the most highly integrated heartland of the EU.

I lived in Paris for many years and frequently read ‘Le Monde Diplomatique’, being ‘la référence’ for French geostategic thinking. This monthly magazine frequently pointed out that when Germany was reunited, the French were afraid of Germany leaving the EU to create a separate economic bloc in Central and Eastern Europe dominated by Germany. So the French offered the idea of a single EU currency to be DOMINATED by Germany, because as the golden rule states, whoever makes the gold, makes the rules.

Germany basically makes the rules in the EU from behind the scenes, while France keeps “possession” of the EU civil service in French-speaking Brussels.All the top EU civil servants are French, including Trichet.

We in Ireland needed to pay attention to all of this long ago, but we believed we were still independent, despite not even having our own central bank anymore.

Now, with the Lisbon Treaty passed into law, Ireland’s future depends on when Germany, via the ECB, decides enough is enough, Ireland can’t keep paying independent consultants, sky-high public sector salaries and the like when, as a state, it hasn’t got any money coming in in tax receipts.

“Cut your coat according to your cloth”, and all that.

Most Irish don’t want to have Germany or it’s bogey man, the IMF, coming in here to tell us what to do, because for the most part we don’t speak German, not French, nor any other continental language, and we believe we are independent.

Most Irish continue to believe the “Ireland is Independent” narrative, even though WE are the ones who voted the Lisbon Treaty into law!

We have made our own bed, and Germany, via the ECB, WILL eventually make us lie in it, once they get around to picking up our dossier and reading our public finances in any detail.

>

In a nutshell, the Irish government’s public finances are out of control. The Europeans, most importantly the Germans, are increasingly aware of this. Therefore, there will be increasing political pressure on the ECB to stop buying Irish bonds.

Fianna Fáil don’t want to cut public spending by the massive amounts needed. The ECB doesn’t want to be seen as mean-spirited either. So there is an agreement already made that the faceless institution of the IMF will do the restructuring of Ireland.

Expect a dole of about EUR130/week at most and cuts in all public sector salaries of at least a further 20%.

Remember that German guy who spoke out about outlandish pay to IRish doctors? Now the entire German nation a speaking about Ireland in the same way, so the political pressure on the ECB to stop the madness of propping up unsustainable Ireland is going to grow and grow until the curtain finally falls.

The only other outcome is for FF to make the massive cuts in the budget, but they won’t do it. So the writing is on the wall.

>

The Germans will achieve what they have been trying to do militarily for 150 years, dominance and control of Europe, with France tagging along firmly in second place, especially as long as they elect people like Sarkozy, De Villepin may have been what was needed.

Britain will dance with everyone but has nailed its colours to the English speaking, US (WASP/Anglo-Saxon) world and its Commonwealth.

Ireland, well after playing high stakes and losing at the table of Casino Capitalism, like a once unruly pupil, we have to sit and listen to the terms and conditions, we just need a battleship off the coast where we can sign on the dotted line. Game over.

>

But the very last thing the Irish Govt can do is gift the bondholders with their rightful ownership of their debt. This is the last act they can make to repudiate the wishes of our future new landlord the ECB.

We have absolutely no say over interest rates money supply and finally inflation. And when you get down to it the Germany economy are the gold makers the rest are just hanger ons save the very wealthy Italian families who control the insurance world and the very wealthy French aristocracy permantly veiled from the public eye who fully support the dictate of the German dimension ruling the roost hell bent on no inflation. When US economists want to deride economic policies in EU they always make a first port of call to the French economy citing its competitiveness is compromised by its socialistic dimension and so on.

A decade or so ago Paul Krugman actually predicted all of this debacle in Europe. Now he did not predict the exact mechanics but he did say that the EC could never achieve a true Federal State such as the US because whilst financial capital may flow freely the fluidity of the labour element of the total capital was far less viscous becuase of inherent cultural and linquistic barriers. Recently in one of the Irish daily’s I read an article about how well Ireland did with the influx of Polish workers who were Polands brightest. This would to a degree counter argue Krugman but he is actually correct because only those who are truly fluent can repartriate with the greatest of ease so as Ireland turns back on the valve of emigration we look to English speaking parts of the world so again at the end of the day Krugman is correct.

>

If we are in a hole, then we ought to accept responsibility for it. And some of us have to eat an awful lot of humble pie. I am thinking of the Kildare Street Circus, IBEC, ICTU, RTE, I-Times, various special interests.

If the Germans are in a position of strength, it is because they work hard, save hard, and expect very severe standards from the German public sector. In the real world you get results for your hard work and equally so for your incompetence.

We can fix it, but it means a massive generational effort to reform the institutional moras that is stiffling Irish society.

I don’t think Germany is in charge of the EU. They are in a position of being able to switch off the nonsense coming from Brussels. And other big countries like Britain, France and Italy have clout. So also do heavy net contributors like the Netherlands and Sweden.

ITEM 3:

ANON – AUSTERITY / IRELAND

The Irish state has not had any austerity measures.

The pension levy has been shoved hamfisted on current workers to pay for retired workers, in order to distract from the 80 Billion Euro hole in the public sector pension plan. Disgraced clowns like Rody Molloy and sNeary are getting their full pensions. You can rest assured that the nepotists in the state system are not seriously affected by it, and will still end up doing well out of the entire deal.

There has been a range of stealth taxes introduced to annoy people, and to justify the existence of the oversized civil service, and oversized local authorities. In other words the stealth taxes are being used to cover up inefficiency.

And some frontline staff on the HSE have lost their temporary contracts. (But the layers of management are still not rationalized, and consultants reports are still being produced to let everybody off the hook).

Austerity ? No, that is not real austerity. Because if there was real austerity, the state would not be borrowing 20 Billion Euro per year just to sustain the Irish lifestyle.

Let’s start with the Colm McCarthy report.